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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Cmon now! You're either in the 'in' crowd or an 'outcast'
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
It appears to be a photograph. Beyond that is anyone's guess.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Captkerosene
Member
Bot is going to get full artificial general intelligence. Up to this point, FSD and Bot were always going to get "limited" AI ... but never "full" AGI. A "limited" Bot learns how to cook French cuisine by demonstration. A full AGI Bot goes online and searches for interesting recipes. The capability just went up 10X.
My reasoning for this conclusion is based on a few things Elon very recently said. 1) AGI is maybe three to six years away. (Singularity.) 2) Elon wants to compete with the LLMs by starting his own project. 3) Elon was burned by OpenAI and obviously wants to maintain control over the tech. 4) Elon referenced the MSFT OpenAI partnership as a potential model for TWTR, TSLA and TruthAI ... giving Tesla access to this tech. (It seems that he has reversed course on having AI owned by a public company.) He wants to control it himself.
This very much reminds me of "The Wheel." (Isn't that what people called it?) All of the components coming together to be a great car company. Now, the wheel is focused on AI. Elon putting in place all of the components necessary to win in the greatest revolution mankind has ever seen. He's serious when he says most of Tesla's value is in Optimus.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Is this for real?
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Partially watched, some points so far.
John & Michael get it, others heads-in-sand.
Effects on suppliers of move to vertical integration, go EV early/late/hopeful denial, lower ICE volume (below point of profitability for suppliers especially), need to increase piece-prices when production is smaller, China coming, EV adoption rates, concern from diesel industry of effects on economics of diesel if petrol (gasoline) sales also fall, as it will make diesel uneconomic (paraphrased).
My view is this supports my existing opinion that when the tipping point of ICE to EV occurs, it will be quick - as even existing ICE vehicles are disposed of before the end of their expected working life due to a wide set of economic drivers (parts, fuel, infrastructure, OEMs/makers viability) plus general disgust at pollution when ICE are a minority (eg Norway cities now).
www.youtube.com
John & Michael get it, others heads-in-sand.
Effects on suppliers of move to vertical integration, go EV early/late/hopeful denial, lower ICE volume (below point of profitability for suppliers especially), need to increase piece-prices when production is smaller, China coming, EV adoption rates, concern from diesel industry of effects on economics of diesel if petrol (gasoline) sales also fall, as it will make diesel uneconomic (paraphrased).
My view is this supports my existing opinion that when the tipping point of ICE to EV occurs, it will be quick - as even existing ICE vehicles are disposed of before the end of their expected working life due to a wide set of economic drivers (parts, fuel, infrastructure, OEMs/makers viability) plus general disgust at pollution when ICE are a minority (eg Norway cities now).
EV Darwinism: The Suppliers Which Will Go Extinct - AAH #649
TOPICS:- The threat of vertical integration- Were eAxles a bad bet?- Suppliers being left out of software defined vehicles- Ford Capital Markets DayPANEL:Mic...
www.youtube.com
AI is the wheel now, I agree as it ties in with OpenAI, Twitter, FSD, labor... even elections, likely in a race to intercept and keep it real as possible.
I was a bit disappointed though. I was thinking a market adjustment was imminent once folks caught on to your secret. Buzz kill, but I have hyper imagination too.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
TSLA weekly bollinger bands coming close
Big move imminent in a matter of weeks
Hopefully to upside
On the bright side, nobody has to suffer Tesla one could always liquidate Tesla and put everything in Nvidia and hope for the best
After all, Wall Street is always right and whichever stock is going up any given day is the best stock. Why suffer all the boring action in tesla instead of chasing
Nvidia since Tesla will never go up ever again, and Nvidia will never go down ever again. everybody knows.
Not financial advice
Big move imminent in a matter of weeks
Hopefully to upside
On the bright side, nobody has to suffer Tesla one could always liquidate Tesla and put everything in Nvidia and hope for the best
After all, Wall Street is always right and whichever stock is going up any given day is the best stock. Why suffer all the boring action in tesla instead of chasing
Not financial advice
I am going to put Ford announcing adopting North American Charging Standard (NACS) on my bingo card.
"This is a significant bit of news for the auto industry. For the first time, a pure electric car is at the top of global sales rankings. And it could only be a Tesla. Yes, JATO data for 53 markets worldwide, plus information for other key markets and estimates for others, indicate that the Tesla Model Y was the world's best-selling car in the first quarter of this year."
www.motor1.com
Tesla Model Y Was The World's Best-Selling Car In Q1 2023
The numbers show the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling car in the world for the first quarter of 2023.
www.motor1.com
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Going off the last Q1 data, which remove Auto GM calculations and replaced them with Adjusted EBITDA margin (non-GAAP), which is less precise because it lumps in all the business divisions and not auto-specific, we see YoY Q1/22 vs. Q1/23 dropped from 26.8% to 18.3%. But the red herring in this is that Q1/22 was the high auto GM ever was at 32.9%. The telling part in this is that pre-price cuts in Q1/23, AGM when it las was reported was 25.9% in Q4/22 (and Adjusted EBITDA margin was 22.2%).
CapEx spend has been increasing consistently over the past year, while Auto GM was dropping (prior to the price cuts). So that 32.9% to 25.9% drop can mostly be attributed to CapEx ramp, that's my read. 7% off Auto GM.
Now, what is the drop from price cuts? AutoGM got removed from reporting, so it makes that assessment a bit more difficult, but let's go with the consensus calculation of 19.6% that I've heard from a few. 25.9 to 19.6% is a 6.3% drop, I take that as attributable to price cuts.
The catch is there is about 40% variability in these two differences between the numbers when Tesla was reporting them both. I.e. that 7% could be as low as 3-3.5% or as high as 9-10%.
Either way, we know Tesla was doing things like ramping Lathrop, Austin, Berlin, and buying land in Mexico. All those should be very CapEx intensive for the quarter. Some will continue multiple quarters, some will slow in future quarters.
TL;DR, a little more than half of the drop YoY is attributable to increased CapEx spending. With Q1/22 being literally the high water mark EVER for Tesla on margins, making the comparison a little "interesting".
It would be very cool if Ford were to licence Tesla hardware and software stack - as we've speculated in the past, Tesla supply the skateboard and all the control hardware, the OEM do the shell on top, would look like a Ford, but have most of the benefits of a Tesla...
Both companies would win massively from such a tie-up and it would indeed advance the adoption of EVs
Both companies would win massively from such a tie-up and it would indeed advance the adoption of EVs
Cmon now! You're either in the 'in' crowd or an 'outcast'
That would be check mate for CCS1. One can dream....
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Solid news worth +0.86%. Oh wait, LCID doubled TSLA's performance today"This is a significant bit of news for the auto industry. For the first time, a pure electric car is at the top of global sales rankings. And it could only be a Tesla. Yes, JATO data for 53 markets worldwide, plus information for other key markets and estimates for others, indicate that the Tesla Model Y was the world's best-selling car in the first quarter of this year."
Tesla Model Y Was The World's Best-Selling Car In Q1 2023
The numbers show the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling car in the world for the first quarter of 2023.
Everyone seems to forget that Q1 2022 marked the last quarter where Berlin/Austin costs were considered capex. Starting in Q2 2022 with deliveries, all of the costs of operating the factory, depreciation/amortization of equipment, cost of labor, etc.., all went out from Capex and into gross margins and operating margins.
It's why margins weren't able to repeat Q1 2022's gross and operating margins. Q1 2022 was essentially the peak efficiency/output of Fremont and Shanghai after years of expanding Fremont and ramping Shanghai. Then the whole process started over in Q2 2022 as Berlin/Austin started their slow ramp. They have been constant drags on margins ever since and even though output has been doubling every quarter, they didn't hit breakeven on gross margin out of Austin/Berlin until they got above 3k/week.
Keep in mind, break even out of Berlin/Austin is STILL dragging on margins because if Fremont/Shanghai combined gross margin is 30% and Austin/Berlin is 5%, it's going to drag down the overall gross margin. Tesla needed to hit 5k/week to start to get to gross margin parity with the other gigafactories. Austin/Berlin both hit 5k/week this quarter.
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