Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

So … what actual number would be high or low enough to move stock price?

Not sure about high, but low would be -1 car.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Not sure about high, but low would be -1 car.

Agreed, i think even a small beat would be the same FUD 'rhetoric' like always.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not sure about high, but low would be -1 car.

Lol, that's literally true, as in 2020 when Tesla delivered 499,550 cars and CNBC Television reported a 'miss' because Tesla guided for 500K cars... guidance provided 5 years earlier!

Agreed, i think even a small beat would be the same FUD 'rhetoric' like always.

... that's when CNBC trots out the 'whisper' number to beat.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[betstarship]

Just a heads up - we're back to about same the last-day-of-the-quarter share price back in Q3/2021, Q3/2022...and, now, Q2/2023.

Q3/2021 - was about the beginnings of production for Giga Texas heading into Q4/2021. October was when GigaTexas was named HQ.
Q3/2022 - AI Day (TeslaBot Reveal), Tesla Shareholder Day Future News [1], Giga Texas reaches 10k (total) production, Cybertruck tooling in GigaTexas started in October
Q2/2023 - Tesla NACS partnerships, Tesla Gigafactory bids (France, Spain, China, etc.), start of GigaTexas Cybertruck Production leading in to Q3/2023, Deutsche Bank is "All-in" after visiting GigaTexas [2]

[1] Musk: Tesla To Build 10-12 Gigafactories, 20M EVs Per Year By 2030
[2] Deutsche Bank "All In" On Tesla Following Giga Texas Meeting - CleanTechnica

Edit: Open question, anyone happen to know how much total production has come out of GigaTexas since inception?

 

[unk45]

….


My opinion is the outsized focus on quarterly reports is silly.

You can take the A LOT position....I'll take the not so much opinion.

This subject generates strong views. However, your opinion and that of @AudubonB are nit in conflict IMO.
You emphasize what should be, while our esteemed creator of the sub-forum, chooses to be snarky in emphasizing what IS.
So, I agree with you both about what ‘should be’ and what ‘is’.
I beseech @AudubonB to be less snarky.

After all as a frequent reader of @Unpilot posts I observe clear distinction between facts and opinion. In fact one might say multi-dimensional at times.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Lol, that's literally true, as in 2020 when Tesla delivered 499,550 cars and CNBC Television reported a 'miss' because Tesla guided for 500K cars... guidance provided 5 years earlier!


... that's when CNBC trots out the 'whisper' number to beat.

Cheers to the Longs!

Right, whatever Tesla reports, the whisper number will magically be slightly above the actual number.

 

[AndrewZ]

That's the thing about opinions...we all have them.

Your opinion is I have one dimensional thinking and a lack of understanding.
Since I don't know you, I will refrain from such a characterization.

My opinion is the outsized focus on quarterly reports is silly.

You can take the A LOT position....I'll take the not so much opinion.

Reactions to quarterly reports etc can be worthy of focus if you're looking for instances where the short-term market response deviates from your understanding of long-term value creation and thus presents a buying opportunity

 

[petit_bateau]

Edit: Open question, anyone happen to know how much total production has come out of GigaTexas since inception?

Approx 123,000 model Y

 

[MikeC]

Analyst Consensus varies:

448,000 Bloomberg
446,823 Tesla IR Compiled
445,000 Factset

My guess is that the media will use the 448k as the estimate (the highest of course).
Perhaps +5k (453k or higher) or -5k (443k or lower) will move the stock.

Factset on the low side? Then I’m expecting them to trot out Refinitiv numbers that are magically 10k higher.

 

[betstarship]

Approx 123,000 model Y

So, they will >10x production in a year in GigaTexas...

 

[Mengy]

I'm expecting a record quarter, but not by much. We should know shortly!

 

[kbM3]

I was hoping Tesla Daily would do a live show.

i don’t see it yet.

 

[snellenr]

It seems unlikely that even these Megapacks would keep continuous plant operation through another Feb 2021 style Snowpocalypse like we experienced here. But most of our grid outages occur on smaller timescales than days, and Megapacks would cover many of those.

There's an engineering principle called "Eating your own dog food" (aka "dogfooding") wherein a company uses its own products in daily operations. It shows confidence in and commitment to the product as well as gaining real-world operational experience that can feed into customer support and product improvement.

 

[Buckminster]

I was hoping Tesla Daily would do a live show.

i don’t see it yet.

Farzad is doing one starting in 5 mins:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just a heads up - we're back to about same the last-day-of-the-quarter share price back in Q3/2021, Q3/2022...and, now, Q2/2023.

3 years ago (on July 10, 2020) I wrote this here on TMC: #178,767 talking about the magic of compounding (you know, 'Time-in-the-Market' vs. 'Timing-the-Market').

So let's see how we're TSLA HODL'ers are doing 3 years later: (charts TSLA ARKK SPY QQQ)


TSLA 3-Yr CAGR: 21.9% | ARKK 3-Yr CAGR: -17.7%


SPY 3-Yr CAGR: 13.6% | QQQ 3-Yr CAGR 12.8%

Cheers to the HODL'ers!

 

[kbM3]

Yay

466k delivered
479700 produced

 

[Moon Buggy]

466K deliveries?

 

[wtlloyd]

466000/479600

Deliveries/Production

Monday up like a balloon.

*Edit to add:
What: Date of Tesla Q2 2023 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, July 19, 2023
Time: 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Q2 2023 Update: https://ir.tesla.com
Webcast: https://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)

 

[betstarship]

wow

 

[Tachyon]

WOW