Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

Costs need to come down probably pretty substantially in the second half for Q2 to be the trough, because I definitely see further discounting/incentivizing to move more and more vehicles as the year progresses and rates stay high. The discounts/incentives implemented sporadically in Q2 probably won't be totally reflected in the Q2 results as well, depending on when the move was made and the vehicle was delivered.

But if we asked Elon, I think he would say the valuation story is about autonomy and not the car business.

 

[thx1139]

After the big announcement, Elon skipped - what, ONE earnings call? Today would be good maybe. I really don't wanna hear about Twitter or FSD.

Speaking of which, who did that really useful and fun bingo card last time?

I dont think he will skip the call where he gets to announce Cybertruck has started production

 

[UncaNed]

Great Tesla ad

The Al books a Tesla sales meeting

Somebody better tell Tesla AI that Tesla has stores, not dealerships. (2:35)

 

[JRP3]

I would love to find the CT comes with a water dispenser (condenser based)

Find the A/C drain on any vehicle. (No the CT will not have a dedicated dispenser).

 

[xhawk101]

hoping for CT release date info, maybe pricing today. would also love an update on tesla insurance particularly in Florida which has been delayed for some time. cheers to all the longs!

 

[Artful Dodger]

2500 cells for 216 kWh, 887 kg in cells and at $100/kWh it is $21600 in cells alone

IMO the CT pack will be 222 KWh of made-in-USA, sold-in-USA batteries with an IRA production tax credit of $35/KWh for the cells plus $10/KWh for the modules/pack.

That's $45*222 or $10,000 which is a COGS reduction to $12,200 for a LR Cybertruck pack, payable directly to Tesla (not a 3rd party such as Panasonic or CATL). That's some juicy margin right there, butter me up!

In the pre-IRA days, COGS for a Model Y LR pack was ~$9,000 and that car seemed to do alright. This new arrangement completely derisks the LR CT, and makes it a likely best seller,

Unfortunately, this further makes long-range CT a USA-Only product for many years to come, IMO (ie: unless Canada matches IRA production credits, they'd have to raise the CT price by $CAD 13k just to recoup the margin they'd make by selling that same truck in the USA).

Cheers, Eh?

 

[Matt Porter]

How are people so certain that margins have troughed? Tesla used car prices continue to go down, at a higher right than other brands.

In fact, it actually accelerating downwards again in the last two months. $1000 drop in just the last two weeks. The correlation between Model Y list prices and this curve has been shown to be strong, so I would bet another round of price cuts in the U.S might be coming.

View attachment 957661

It seems obvious that used car prices and new car prices correlate...

Correlation is not causation however. Have you considered that used car prices are bound to drop in line with new car prices dropping? There was a big price drop on new Model Y in January which probably led to the decline here. Same in April - so looks more like the used car prices dropping follows new car pricing, rather than vice-versa.

 

[Knightshade]

IMO the CT pack will be 222 KWh of made-in-USA, sold-in-USA batteries with an IRA production tax credit of $35/KWh for the cells plus $10/KWh for the modules/pack.

That's $45*222 or $10,000 which is a COGS reduction of -$11,600 on each LR Cybertruck, payable directly to Tesla (not a 3rd party such as Panasonic or CATL). That's some juicy margin right there, butter me up!

This completely derisks the LR CT, and makes it a likely best seller, IMO.

Cheers!

You think 4680 ramp is to the point it can support 222 kwh battery packs for a vehicle selling in volume in 2024 (in addition to its increasing use in Y structural packs)?

 

[GhostSkater]

IMO the CT pack will be 222 KWh of made-in-USA, sold-in-USA batteries with an IRA production tax credit of $35/KWh for the cells plus $10/KWh for the modules/pack.

That's $45*222 or $10,000 which is a COGS reduction of -$11,600 on each LR Cybertruck, payable directly to Tesla (not a 3rd party such as Panasonic or CATL). That's some juicy margin right there, butter me up!

This completely derisks the LR CT, and makes it a likely best seller, IMO.

Cheers!

Yep, see the last few lines of my post

 

[Maarten]

As demonstrated here…

Driving 100-120 km/h on a max 80 km/h road with entrances to houses/farms.
A Dutch idiot.

 

[cliff harris]

I really don't think this is the lowest margins will go, nor do I think Tesla are that bothered by that fact. Tesla now make money from selling solar, selling storage, selling cars, selling FSD, selling premium connectivity and selling supercharger power.
Only one of those things AFAIK is included in the auto margin, and the trend is probably going to be auto sales profits becoming a smaller part of gross profit with each subsequent quarter.
Thats without any major FSD update or renting out Dojo or any Teslabot stuff in future.

I'm expecting a flat-response to earnings. Lots of bad press about low margins, usual FUD. I think serious investors may wait to make moves until a cybertruck is in customers, and more specifically reviewer's hands. CT pricing announcement could move the needle, but I'm assuming we dont get that today.

 

[AndrewZ]

It seems obvious that used car prices and new car prices correlate...

Correlation is not causation however. Have you considered that used car prices are bound to drop in line with new car prices dropping? There was a big price drop on new Model Y in January which probably led to the decline here. Same in April - so looks more like the used car prices dropping follows new car pricing, rather than vice-versa.

Used car prices are also likely being driven down by the sheer production/delivery volume increase, and lower production earlier on would have supported higher used car prices / value retention but not so much when you're selling 1.8million+ of basically all Model 3s and Ys per year.

hoping for CT release date info, maybe pricing today. would also love an update on tesla insurance particularly in Florida which has been delayed for some time. cheers to all the longs!

Elon commented about this on the last earnings call so not sure I would expect a ton of details until the handover event:

Martin Viecha
Thank you. And maybe the last question from investors, can you give updated specs and pricing for Cybertruck and any new features that will make it to production?

Elon Musk
Well, I think we'll save that for the Cybertruck handover, which will hopefully be around the end of Q3 this year. And one thing I am confident of saying is that, it's an incredible product, it's a hall of famer, I think. And a product like this only comes once in a long while. So it will not be disappointed at all. It's amazing.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm expecting a flat-response to earnings. Lots of bad press about low margins, usual FUD.

So what you're saying is there is a 'chance' for a surprise to the upside

GOT IT!

 

[Drax7]

Eps estimates are quite mediocre, nonetheless the stock
rallies into the report. It goes to show how unpredictable
the short term price action is. We need all the cushion
we can get.

 

[Buckminster]

Earnings prep:
3:30 ET

4:02 ET
Tesla Investor Relations
5:30 ET

 

[Christine69420]

More info about the Giga Berlin extension:

The top half of the new building will be for production.
The bottom half will be for storage and logistics.
And between those there will be a logistics tunnel.
On the roof there will be parking for 7300 cars.
On top of the new building there will be a solar panel system with peak power of 50 MW.
There will be 30MWh of electrical energy storage.

Source is again Tobias Lindh:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681427020302143488

 

[Maarten]

That's interesting.

View attachment 957402

One of the most interesting things I see is that Tesla is starting with battery recycling in Berlin.
In that way not only taking care of it’s own environmental footprint, but directly addressing the need for battery materials at the same time.
Kudos for Tesla here!

 

[elasalle]

One of the most interesting things I see is that Tesla is starting with battery recycling in Berlin.
In that way not only taking care of it’s own environmental footprint, but directly addressing the need for battery materials at the same time.
Kudos for Tesla here!

What are chances of Tesla buying JB's Redwood materials?

 

[MP3Mike]

What are chances of Tesla buying JB's Redwood materials?

I would say very unlikely. Tesla is already running their own recycling operations in Nevada. (At least that is my understanding.)

Edit: from the impact report: https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2022-tesla-impact-report.pdf

 

[Christine69420]

A third update from Tobias:

In the south-east they will also add another cell production building as well as another building for drive units and battery packs.
- Green is part of the first partical permit
- Yellow will be the second partial permit
- Red will be the third partial permit

Source:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681681589380567041