Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

Having worked at Ford I understand some of this. The health care cost are quite high which add $15K-$20K per worker. They also have some legacy retirement health care, pensions, 401k, etc. There are a certain number of paid UAW members they pay but are not actually working. Sick and vacation is considered benefit that adds to the hourly cost. There is even more I likely forgot. It does not include any plant costs such as lighting etc.

So basically this is how they do a loaded calculation.

All in Hourly Costs/Actual Hours worked = Average hourly cost.

The actual hours worked is much smaller than the actual hours paid.

One tidbit that stood out when I was there. The overtime costs in the plant I worked in were actually lower than the regular time costs. The reason was the benefits were more than 50% of the typical hourly wage and all accounted for in the base loaded rate.

Time for Bots & UBI. Bueller?....Bueller?...

 

[bkp_duke]

Time for Bots & UBI. Bueller?....Bueller?...

UBI . . . F no.

Let's not talk UBI, too politically charged.

 

[GhostSkater]

Went to watch a drag race for the first time in my life, was cool, but all I could think off was "damn, so much noise for so little, wish I had a Plaid to race it".

All modified originally cheap cars, was only 1/8 mile, fastest one was a tiny bit under 8 seconds, while a Plaid does sub 6, a Model 3 Performance does low 7's and would smoke any of them, even a base one would play with most cars there

 

[ggies07]

UBI . . . F no.

Let's not talk UBI, too politically charged.

Not really. Looks like people want to work less and companies want to pay less for more work...capitalism is crumbling. AI Is approaching.

Does society want a fair and easy transition or a violent and volatile transition?

Mod: Yes, really.
It is not a topic for this thread, AND it gets too political far too quickly. If any have responded since I last checked, they'll be canned.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Doesn't make sense to me. The $66 is made up of worker wages (I think I heard figures of about $20/hr average) plus other overheads such as payroll taxes, 401k, workers' compensation insurance, health insurance, and amortized costs like electricity to keep the lights on and the lines running. A 40% raise to the workers would add $8 to the direct cost, and maybe a few dollars more to the worker-related costs. So how do they go from $66 to $136?

I guess that another factor is reducing the working week from 40 to 32 hours, which means you need 20% more workers or to pay more overtime, but I still can't make the numbers work out. And I won't read WSJ .

401k would be a losing proposition in those companies so i guess it adds negative equity to the hourly wage?

 

[bkp_duke]

Went to watch a drag race for the first time in my life, was cool, but all I could think off was "damn, so much noise for so little, wish I had a Plaid to race it".

All modified originally cheap cars, was only 1/8 mile, fastest one was a tiny bit under 8 seconds, while a Plaid does sub 6, a Model 3 Performance does low 7's and would smoke any of them, even a base one would play with most cars there

Yep. When I take the P3D to the local 1/8th mile course, there is practically nothing but another Tesla that can beat it. With the rare exception of someone that has spent 100k on his car to get it up to 2000 HP, and installed a parachute to stop it.

 

[GhostSkater]

Yep. When I take the P3D to the local 1/8th mile course, there is practically nothing but another Tesla that can beat it. With the rare exception of someone that has spent 100k on his car to get it up to 2000 HP, and installed a parachute to stop it.

Wish I could have talked to some of the guy to figure out how much power they were making

Not my pic nor the place but this is 99% of the cars there lol, they get the VW Gol, which was cheap ages ago and tear it apart, stuff a giant engine and call it a day

And given the EV knowledge around here, I bet a Plaid would be laughed at until the first race, since people wouldn't have a clue what it was

If TSLA goes to $1400 I could buy one and go play there lol

 

[MC3OZ]

Does anyone know what these trolleys are for at GigaTexas? Judging by the size and quantity I wonder if they could be for the front and rear ends of unboxed production? They look a little too small for a full vehicle.

That said, there could be a number of reasons for them (e.g. just carting battery packs around now that volume is increasing substantially)

View attachment 974272


Timestamp

These trolleys look like something new, we haven't previously seen them being installed for Model 3/Y lines, so they could relate to Cybertruck / Gen3 lines.

My best guess is that the floor of the Gen3 vehicle is still a front and rear casting with a structural battery pack, given the relatively small sizes these trolley big be able to accommodate those parts. having a casting overhang the trolley provides easier access.

It has also been suggested these trolleys could be used to move parts, Tesla talks about operator density for Gen3 and working being done of the vehicle while it isn;t moving..

If a station had 4 operators and each operator had a trolley full part parts that is a lot of parts that could be installed at that station. This might be a bit different to a traditional assembly line, with each operator is installing multiple parts.

Loading the correct parts on trolleys would be a good entry level position for Optimus.

The single large casting for Gen3 is confusing, because it conflicts with what we were told about "operator density" on Investor Day. However, what makes sense to be is a single casting for the roof and the side pillars, If that was done, the bulk of the car body is made up of castings, most of the traditional body-shop concept is eliminated.

If they are thinking of a single casting, they could initially start out like the original Model Y rear casting, joining multiple castings.

The roof section could be suspended at a convenient height for operators to install the interior before the final assembly phase.

The idea of casting the roof was discussed in the engineering thread previously many had reservations. IMO it makes sense, because a single large casting for the floor would be a very bad idea. It destroys operator density, and may make difficult to replace the battery pack.

 

[JustSaying]

Gosh… what an UNFAIR advantage.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702325410426691669

Who Is John Galt?
(I will duck now)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have said no less than 3 times on this forum I think Tesla needs to evaluate Leasing at much lower rates and potential auto financing.

Did you see this posted here 2 days ago?

Tesla readies record-sized pool of EV leases for bond deal, a sign of resilience in luxury | morningstar.com (Sep 14, 2023)

 

[GOVA]

After watching M3 Highland video again, which I've watched many, the refresh is truly astounding. Those will sell like nuts for a long time.

Once MY gets this kind of refresh, GAME OVER.

This is the latest one I actually loved. From the_wolfpack_berlin

 

[kengchang]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703184740457603407

So how's the production this Quarter so far? Anyone with a #?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wish I could have talked to some of the guy to figure out how much power they were making their cars weigh.

FTFY.

1/8th Mile ET-MPH-HP Calculator Wallace Racing. Use "Calculate HP From Weight and MPH"

Returns flywheel horsepower (which is what ICE brags about).

Cheers!

 

[AZRI11]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703184740457603407

So how's the production this Quarter so far? Anyone with a #?

420K

 

[Artful Dodger]

The idea of casting the roof was discussed in the engineering thread previously many had reservations.

Yup, it's still a bad idea. An aluminum casting has very different properties vs high strength steel, which is what Tesla depends on for crashworthiness, plus elephant drops.



Casting the underbody in a single piece will be enough of an accomplishment for Robotaxi. It'll save lots of work (and fasteners) not having to put 3 parts together. The rest will be drop-in modules, quickly attached, and the car still has at least 4 surfaces which can be worked on simultaneously.

Cheers!

 

[GhostSkater]

FTFY.

1/8th Mile ET-MPH-HP Calculator Wallace Racing. Use "Calculate HP From Weight and MPH"

Returns flywheel horsepower (which is what ICE brags about).

Cheers!

Nice, seems like at most they would be 250 HP, maybe 300, so much noise for that little lol

 

[MC3OZ]

Yup, it's still a bad idea. An aluminum casting has very different properties vs high strength steel, which is what Tesla depends on for crashworthiness, plus elephant drops.

View attachment 974536

Casting the underbody in a single piece will be enough of an accomplishment for Robotaxi. It'll save lots of work (and fasteners) not having to put 3 parts together. The rest will be drop-in modules, quickly attached, and the car still has at least 4 surfaces which can be worked on simultaneously.

Cheers!

What was presented at investor day was;-

• 4 surfaces on the rear casting
• 4 surfaces on the front casting
• 4 surfaces on the structural battery pack
• Not moving a large heavy object around.

I understand the issue of crash safety, that would be factored into any decision and might be a deal breaker,

I can sort of see it working as connected front and rear castings with a hole in the middle for the structural battery pack. Otherwise we are reverting to a non-structural pack, or a pack that is hard to change.

If they are using a non-structural pack, we are back to needing to put the roof on after installing the seats.

But this change also seems to reduce the operator density from 12 to 8, or perhaps in the worst case from 12 to 4.

The larger casting machine is going to cost significantly more, there has to be some payback for that in terms of time and money.

 

[Buckminster]

UBI thread:
Universal Basic Income (UBI) is coming

 

[betstarship]

So, here's something I've been ruminating on (and might be a good weekend topic):

I turn 50 in 2034; 40 next year. For all intents and purposes climate change could be averted by 2035 (or earlier). We might get AGI before then too. Heck, people might be on Mars and humanity might have solved all brain diseases.

...so, then what?

Also, how would you live your life in the present moment with Elon Musk and teams kinda fixing everything sustainability?

 

[aubreymcfato]

So, here's something I've been ruminating on (and might be a good weekend topic):

I turn 50 in 2034; 40 next year. For all intents and purposes climate change could be averted by 2035 (or earlier). We might get AGI before then too. Heck, people might be on Mars and humanity might have solved all brain diseases.

...so, then what?

Also, how would you live your life in the present moment with Elon Musk and teams kinda fixing everything sustainability?

Not sure this the right thread, but I fear you are very, very optimistic.
Climate change is already here, we probably have surpassed 1.2 /1.5° Celsius, and even if Elon could snap his fingers and solve in a second all transport and logistics and heating and food emissions, we'd be still at 1.5°. And it already shows.
There is no meaningful carbon capture technology (I don't think anybody won Musk prize of a few years ago) and the carbon sinks we already had (forests) are sometime flipping into carbon sources (Canadian forests...).
Climate change is very, very much unsolved, right now.
AGI by tomorrow could help us with carbon capture, sure. There's hope with that.