Ok here I go looking for change in the couch, under the car seat, and it the utility drawer. Gonna buy some chairs - January holiday sale is on! 
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
larmor
Active Member
Robot is just future growth which should be recognized for r&d to pivot to new product line, just like FSD as a service and license to major OEM (seems to have fallen off the radar (pun intended)), and the market has rarely viewed TSLA new product lines as valuable unlike many other companies and their equities. So for now, no hype needed just continued growth, continued FCF, continued line and factory expansion is more than enough and should be rewarded with continuing increased valuation, as most would advise when picking companies and stocks.
If TSLA prints a $0.6 EPS this quarter (up from $0.53 in Q3), the TTM EPS will still go down because Q4 2022 was $1.07.
The new TTM after earnings update would be $2.63, and at current share price a PE ratio of 79.5. That's a pretty high PE ratio for a company with short term flat earnings growth.
In fact, can you find other profitable companies w/ stable growth that show such a high PE ratio? Usually you see it when a company had a big one-time loss in a quarter (like writing down some sunk investment).
Tesla certainly might be able to sustain such a high growth valuation, but let's not pretend it's normal.
All that is just to say, why can't the price go lower short term? If the share price was $180, that will still be a TTM PE ratio of 68. $150? PE ratio of 57. Those... aren't absurd valuations on the surface.
Obviously, what matters most is the markets expectations for earnings over the next year or two. This is why clarity on what revenues Tesla is going to make from Energy, Cybertruck, etc... are going to be by the end of the year is really important. And what costs are going to drag margins from - for example - the terrible progress in 4680 DBE scaling.
This is what we need to learn on the earnings call. Not FSD, Dojo, Optimus. Those are great long term but mean nothing for earnings growth later this year and in 2025.
The new TTM after earnings update would be $2.63, and at current share price a PE ratio of 79.5. That's a pretty high PE ratio for a company with short term flat earnings growth.
In fact, can you find other profitable companies w/ stable growth that show such a high PE ratio? Usually you see it when a company had a big one-time loss in a quarter (like writing down some sunk investment).
Tesla certainly might be able to sustain such a high growth valuation, but let's not pretend it's normal.
All that is just to say, why can't the price go lower short term? If the share price was $180, that will still be a TTM PE ratio of 68. $150? PE ratio of 57. Those... aren't absurd valuations on the surface.
Obviously, what matters most is the markets expectations for earnings over the next year or two. This is why clarity on what revenues Tesla is going to make from Energy, Cybertruck, etc... are going to be by the end of the year is really important. And what costs are going to drag margins from - for example - the terrible progress in 4680 DBE scaling.
This is what we need to learn on the earnings call. Not FSD, Dojo, Optimus. Those are great long term but mean nothing for earnings growth later this year and in 2025.
If we don't bounce off of 208 we will drop to 197, this is all according to technical traders. If we bounce off of 208 we will probably go to at least 225 next week.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
cliff harris
Member
I hear a lot about how 4680s and Dry Battery electrode is so late, and delayed and a disappointment. I never hear about how any of Tesla's rivals are overtaking them on these things though.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Except, we're dealing with a BoD and management team who are completely focused on the long term. This is what fills their heads.
It could be that they really can't be bothered with spending much time on what happened last quarter, or even all that much about what will happen this year. In their minds, the short term metrics are already a done deal as momentum will carry the juggernaut forward.
Those sort of details Wally wants may be only a tiny part of the message they are sharing about Tesla's future, and this is what leads to the bobble-heads on Wall St. being so disappointed and dismayed every time something new is shared.
Wally is so ate up with short-term thinking that their blinders prevent them from looking further out and interpreting the clear message being offered.
Perhaps Tesla's management can't speak to that level of thought without being somewhat disingenuous, simply because those stats aren't part of the plan they are working on.
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Depends on how you define rivals. Most get their batteries from Panasonic and LG or BYD/CATL...Tesla is trying to catch them, not the opposite.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Ok here I go looking for change in the couch, under the car seat, and it the utility drawer. Gonna buy some chairs - January holiday sale is on!
Take a look at tomorrow's Options expires. Seems like Hedgies are making a big move to push their 'Puts' in the money. Not advice.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Next obvious move for Hedgies to test support from Oct 30, 2023 (and they want to get it done soon just in case Q4 surprises to the upside)
Yep max pain is $210...looks at SP...wow what a coincidence.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Care to post a 'screenie' so we have it here in the record? That website doesn't have an archive, each day, the previous day is gone and forgotten.
Attachments
In addition to long-term robot growth, I believe there's a short-term period of applied Optimus internally with a pretty quick affect on margins. In other words, Tesla doesn't need an Optimus production line to first benefit from direct application for themselves. Low volume mfg is not too shabby these days for the hardware, and the motors and sensors are in-house from what I understand.
A robot would be much easier to build by hand than any vehicle like Semi or the first Roadsters at "One a day, two if we're lucky." No comparison... and not surprised if Tesla could produce 10 Optimus/day... today! AI is the only bottleneck here.
Demonstrated learning speed, that's what I wanna see (and only half joked about the shirt-folding task learning time that already started). Also, we haven't heard much on FSD (still internal), so maybe part of that same team and DOJO are crunching Robot data now.
You might also find this interesting... what's with the extreme Calls far right at 825?
(I may have been zoomed-in prior, so maybe nothing new, IDK).
Probably bought a few years ago when the SP was 400?
Next week, people are already betting some volume at 225. That could be a trap, too high risk for moi.
If I were to consider any options, I'd be looking at least out to Q4 when 4680 batteries are ramping, maybe further and deep so that this noise is irrelevant but the unwinding could pay off. Not advice.
Drumheller
Active Member
Elon sees how fast A.I. is growing. I believe that is his reason for pushing for 25% now. Nothing related to current Tesla margins and profit.
I recall years of seeing posts in this thread hyping every upcoming quarterly call as "the one" where Wall Street figured it out and wised up.
I'm glad to see less hype.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lotto tickets: If they're priced at $0.01 per contract today (no, I didn't look) and they go up to $0.02 tomorrow you made 100% on yer throw of the dice. I don't.... and NOT ADVICE!
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