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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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With all the gloom posted this year along with the declining stock price, I took the time to compare the financials of Tesla compared to Toyota, GM and Ford. I would love for others to check my numbers for 2023, but after the exercise I am glad I am long on Tesla. Here are a couple of key metrics:


......................................Tesla................Toyota.............GM................Ford
Profit per car...........$9,567.............$1,893.............$1,637..........$985
Cash on hand..............$29B.................$50M...............$12B..........$25B
Debt.............................$ 44M...............$114B...............$16B..........$99B

I knew Tesla was profitable but I had no idea they totally killing the competition. If you look at cash - long term debt again only Tesla is solid and solid to a VERY strong degree, $29B versus GM the next closest at -$4B. So unless I made some mistakes all I need to say is WOW, Tesla is killing it.

Note: Toyota I think, counts a financial year from July to July so timing is a bit off and I had to covert Yen to $. So not a true apples to apples but we shoul be close. The cash to debt ratio of Toyota is just down right scary.

PS trying to correct for formatting.


Toyota cash on hand at least is massively incorrect- Toyota has something near 87 billion in cash, not a mere 50 million.



There's also the issue most of the debt (for everyone but Tesla) is secured auto financing debt so they're not REMOTELY as 'bad' as the raw number implies....so you'd probably want to list their debt ex-financing to make it more apples to apple (Tesla is still WAY ahead of the others here, but not by nearly the amount vs. cash on hand your chart implies)





It's pretty interesting I think we are approaching 6 months since Highland first launched to the public and they're still doing engineering sample work on the Performance version-- original Model 3 the base Performance trim was literally the same physical vehicle as LR AWD with a software unlock of performance- so clearly there's actual significant physical differences this time... unusual given Teslas preference for simplicity and fewer SKUs/different parts.
 
With all the gloom posted this year along with the declining stock price, I took the time to compare the financials of Tesla compared to Toyota, GM and Ford. I would love for others to check my numbers for 2023, but after the exercise I am glad I am long on Tesla. Here are a couple of key metrics:


......................................Tesla................Toyota.............GM................Ford
Profit per car...........$9,567.............$1,893.............$1,637..........$985
Cash on hand..............$29B.................$50M...............$12B..........$25B
Debt.............................$ 44M...............$114B...............$16B..........$99B

I knew Tesla was profitable but I had no idea they totally killing the competition. If you look at cash - long term debt again only Tesla is solid and solid to a VERY strong degree, $29B versus GM the next closest at -$4B. So unless I made some mistakes all I need to say is WOW, Tesla is killing it.

Note: Toyota I think, counts a financial year from July to July so timing is a bit off and I had to covert Yen to $. And cash to debt ration of Toyota is just down right scary.

PS trying to correct for formatting.
This is always fun to do, and informative. just for context, Japanese industrials tend to reflect very high debt levels, always. A major part of that is structural rather than high risk as it would be in the US:
The system is called Keiretsu, generically, which reflects interlocking shareholder relationship between ostensibly independent companies. Toyota, by far the largest, recently had holdings in 65 'related' companies:
Toyota has come under repeated scrutiny for every thing from being the dominant vehicle for the Taliban, Islamic State, etc.
That is almost investable since Toyota Land Cruiser is the foment vehicle in most of the world's least developed places. Similarly they have come under fire for Russia manufacturing, (they allegedly quit but somehow they do not really disappear).

The highly complex and opaque nature of Toyota global dealings makes much other debt load not exactly opaque either. They have precedent and deniability for nearly all the criticism, and they never really seem to encounter the constraints found by other, lesser groupings.

In other words, those debt numbers really do not convey much useful information on Toyota. They simply are unlike any other company anywhere. In a real way, that is why Corolla seems so dominant in globals sales, because >20 vehicles use that name. Only some of them are actually related to each other.

if you really want to know more searches will gradually show the colorful findings. From Albania to Zimbabwe, Toyota is there!
 
OK thanks...

So he made that statement in the context of the post where the assertion was that it would take $50trillion to be carbon neutral by 2050... and that was being used to push back by a Senator on the energy secretary. The statement preceding the video by the OP was "Global warming is the largest scam in human history."

So, I think there's a chance that Elon's statement in this regard is deliberately conservative simply to avoid having make ecologically and responsible decisions look like "crying wolf". Quite frankly, saying we have to spend $2trillion a year for the next 25 yrs is going to spawn some knee jerk reactions.

It's one of the things Elon recognizes: You not only have to determine what to do, you have to make it attractive and economically feasible to turn it from a pipe dream into an actual possibility.

It's why he makes his cars cool and fast. It's why he drives down price, often at the expense of profit. It's why he aims to iteratively target the market segments making the biggest impact with vehicles that fit.
 
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OK thanks...

So he made that statement in the context of the post where the assertion was that it would take $50trillion to be carbon neutral by 2050... and that was being used to push back by a Senator on the energy secretary. The statement preceding the video by the OP was "Global warming is the largest scam in human history."

So, I think there's a chance that Elon statement in this regard is deliberately conservative simply to avoid having make ecologically and responsible decisions look like "crying wolf". Quite frankly, saying we have to spend $2trillion a year for the next 25 yrs is going to spawn some knee jerk reactions.

It's one of the things Elon recognizes: You not only have to determine what to do, you have to make it attractive and economically feasible to turn it from a pipe dream into an actual possibility.

It's why he makes his cars cool and fast. It's why he drives down price, often at the expense of profit. It's why he aims to iteratively target the market segments making the biggest impact which vehicles that fit.
Right.

Elon isn't a climate denier now, despite what the media tried to force when he said, "Farming has no material effect on climate change".

He said that people have weaponized it for control.

He doesn't believe the government should force the gas/oil industry out of business or "demonize them" as he put it. He doesn't believe people should be forced into EVs and when the government does things like that, there's backlash.
 
Will there also be some body differences in front and back given the camouflage?
Different front and rear bumpers, that is what they are hiding. Tesla are using old wheels on this prototype, many are looking forward to seeing what the new rims will look like. Sadly the Uberturbine wheels will be going away, While some of the coolest wheel designs ever designed, they were heavy like an anvil.
 
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Different front and rear bumpers, that is what they are hiding. Tesla are using old wheels on this prototype, many are looking forward to seeing what the new rims will look like. Sadly the Uberturbine wheels will be going away, While some of the coolest wheel designs ever designed, they were heavy like an anvil.
Am definitely looking forward to the additional differentiation of the performance trim. Indeed, my old M5 and even my wife's current (but 10+ years old) Volvo XC60 R-design had a number of differentiating items including:

engine and/or power
wheels
suspension
exterior colors (Lemans Blue for M5 and Passion Red for Volvo were exclusive to the performance cars)
Interior seat design and/or colors
Instrument cluster
front bumper
rear bumper
painted vs "black plastic" trim (on Volvo)
Wing/spoiler
headliner (on M5)
Steering wheel
Dash/console trim

I'm sure I am forgetting some more minor things, but the PACKAGE as a whole was very nice for each car, and really upped the appearance and overall enjoyment of the cars - and thus the desirability. The cost of that differentiation will likely increase Tesla's costs, but they charge such a fat premium for the performance models it is likely worth it...especially if it increases the take rate on those models. Heck, I am such a fan of "great colors" on cars, I can be swayed by just the availability of a specific color on those models!
 
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In my interpretation, this means that we won't die in 12 months if you we don't stop burning oil yesterday

But if we stop on our tracks and reverse changes we will die in 100 years

It doesn't mean we don't have to take action, we are already doing, and it seems that the world is in a good path and we don't have to go live in the woods for us to not die in 100 years
 
Wow, what happened to Ross Gerber? I had no idea he'd become so bitter against Elon, not like this:


If I was invested with Ross (I am not) I'd be a tad worried about that investment right now.
I can't stand that SMR guy. Extremely full of himself and constantly bashing on anything that isn't 100 % bullish on everything Musk or Tesla do. Is there any episode where he shows even a shred of humility or sensible analysis? I miss Rob Maurer.
 
I might add that Lucid has a biggish store on our Karl Johan street the one bookended by the Central Station and the Royal Palace, so very expensive. And they sold 5 Lucids last year in Norway, EV nirvana. That’s less than Ferrari. So even though they are announcing the RWD Air now under 1 million NOK to the “we only buy 4x4 cars” Norwegians. It’s not looking very good for them.
I believe I walked past that when I was in Oslo last year, indeed, I even took a photo!

Interestingly, Lucid had "Coming in 2025" notice on a showroom down the street from Tesla in Zaventem, Brussels, but this has now been unceremoniously torn down... BYD still there though, a few doors down, but never seems to be anyone in there when I drive past

1708356043655.png
 
Am definitely looking forward to the additional differentiation of the performance trim. Indeed, my old M5 and even my wife's current (but 10+ years old) Volvo XC60 R-design had a number of differentiating items including:

engine and/or power
wheels
suspension
exterior colors (Lemans Blue for M5 and Passion Red for Volvo were exclusive to the performance cars)
Interior seat design and/or colors
Instrument cluster
front bumper
rear bumper
painted vs "black plastic" trim (on Volvo)
Wing/spoiler
headliner (on M5)
Steering wheel
Dash/console trim

I'm sure I am forgetting some more minor things, but the PACKAGE as a whole was very nice for each car, and really upped the appearance and overall enjoyment of the cars - and thus the desirability. The cost of that differentiation will likely increase Tesla's costs, but they charge such a fat premium for the performance models it is likely worth it...especially if it increases the take rate on those models. Heck, I am such a fan of "great colors" on cars, I can be swayed by just the availability of a specific color on those models!
The question is how much this will pad the order books. Tesla has matured and are offering greater differentiation between trims with the LR trim really doing everything the majority of buyers want. So the Performance trim can really step it, in "performance" and just as important, margins.
 

I've been a pretty serious climate advocate over the past several years. I've participated in protests and given talks on the subject.

This statement from Elon doesn't bother me in the least. I wish he would be more outspoken these days like he was in the past. But his statement here is mostly true. I say "mostly" because if you are one of the people whose life has already been upended by the effects of climate change then the risk is definitely not "overblown".
 
In my interpretation, this means that we won't die in 12 months if you we don't stop burning oil yesterday

But if we stop on our tracks and reverse changes we will die in 100 years

It doesn't mean we don't have to take action, we are already doing, and it seems that the world is in a good path and we don't have to go live in the woods for us to not die in 100 years

Yes, and it's important to be completely honest. We are playing the long game, but it's a game we must win.

There is one part of your post that comports with something Elon said which I do take issue with. I believe Elon said something to the effect that the problem is "trajectorally" solved?

I don't think we can begin to make the claim that the problem is in any way solved until we at least see global emissions start to go down. But emissions continue to go up and up and up. I get it that we have a plan and we've taken a lot of good steps. I get it that everyone wants to see light at the end of the tunnel.

But if you look at what we have to do to stay under 1.5 degrees or even under 2 degrees, we are not on track at all.

We need a major advancement such as the one Elon is fishing for with his carbon removal XPRIZE.