Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Deleted post by banned member .

Bernstein analcyst Toni Scaramouche told us plain as day that no matter the results Tesla posts in 2024, they were calling for other hedge funds like his to "short TSLA". The fundamentals don't matter when they are using their position of privilidge as Options Market Makers to sell as many counterfeit shares as they need to get the boulder rolling downhill, and keep it rolling. Here's some of what you may have missed:

• Bernstein reiterates Underperform on Tesla, says FY24 estimates remain too high (Oct 30, 2023)
• Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi on Tesla's challenge: It's playing in 'a hyper-competitive marketplace' (Nov 14, 2023)
• Why Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi is bearish on Tesla (Nov 16, 2023)

Then, after the CT delivery event, Scaramouche started his media tour:

• Bernstein's best idea for 2024? Short Tesla stock | streetinsider.com (Dec 08, 2023)

Here's the CBNC TV video I referred to in my OP:

Bernstein's Toni Saccogahi on why he's underweight Tesla | CNBC TV (Dec 12, 2023)

... and (one of many) retail investor replies to this interview (I have 2 more if you need)

How Can a Tesla Bear Be So Wrong? (Toni Sacconaghi Bernstein) | (Dec 12, 2024) Brighter w. Herbert

You should note that Berstein's "analyst" did not get a question on the Q4 Earnings Call.

 

[Gigapress]

If the synthetic fuel is made using free electricity and the end application is more feasible with a higher density energy storage medium, then sure, it competes.
CO2+H2O+solar->CH4 for Starship
(L/C)NG:14.9 kWh/kg
Li-ion: 0.25 kWh/kg
Jet A: 12 kWh/kg
Diesel: 12.7 kWh/kg

Synthetic fuel is going to be big for the aviation sector, at least. This is mentioned in Tesla Master Plan 3. No battery or hydrogen fuel cell technology currently available comes close to competing with Jet A, even with very optimistic assumptions about the efficiency advantages an all-electric aircraft architecture could offer. And even if magic batteries showed up today and we already magically had certified new designs and factories and supply chains to replace all current Boeing and Airbus models, there would still be the existing fleet of nearly 30,000 jets, most of which are many years away from retirement. Jet fuel makes up about 10% of total petroleum consumption, and global demand for air transportation is growing rapidly, far faster than the growth of other transportation sectors (though autonomy could profoundly change this trend for road transportation).

Synthetic fuel is very unlikely to ever be competitive for road vehicles in my opinion, except maybe diesel for some long-haul trucking or very energy-intensive equipment used in remote locations, like mining and logging machinery.

 

[Cult Member]

Translation for the Armenians among you:

[aʊ̯ˈtaʁk] German for 'Independent' or 'Self-Sufficient'​

Prost!

Doesn't at least 'autarkic' exists? I could blame it to auto correction, because - set to English - it would accept both. But I was confident that I've read it just before.
Dankeschön for paying attention to the influence of my native language.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Doesn't at least 'autarkic' exists? I could blame it to auto correction, because - set to English - it would accept both. But I was confident that I've read it just before.
Dankeschön for paying attention to the influence of my native language.

Bitte schön... since we're on the subject of idioms of language, what do Germans say instead of typical english phrases like "firing on all cylinders" or "pouring gasoline on a fire"?

We need to change the way we think to steer away from the mine'n'burn economy toward cheap'n'abundant renewable energy!

Prost!

 

[MC3OZ]

Synthetic fuel is going to be big for the aviation sector, at least. This is mentioned in Tesla Master Plan 3.

Terraform hope to get price parity with synthetic methane when solar is at $10 USD MWh..

Solar only has to track historical learning rates to get there by..... (I can't remember the date)....

There is also this beast:- The system | NEXAT

NEXAT is electrically driven. The generators are currently powered by two independently driven 550 hp diesel engines, but the system itself is prepared to be powered by green hydrogen fuel cells.

That is probably one of the few cases where hydrogen powered vehicles might make sense.

The point being solar and the right price takes all sorts of things that were previously not viable, and turns them into a good idea.

 

[CitizenKane]

Swedish "Medieakademin" conducts annual surveys of randomly selected Swedes' trust in political parties, institutions and corporations. In this year's survey, they included Tesla, who ended up in the bottom of the 11 companies they asked about. Even lower than the Swedish state owned railways company, which is notoriously unpopular because of constant disruptions and delays in railway transports.

Förtroendebarometern - Medieakademin

Sedan 1997 gör Medieakademin en årlig förtroendebarometer. Undersökningen mäter förtroende för samhällsinstitutioner, enskilda företag och massmedier.

medieakademin.se

 

[T@oo]

Bitte schön... since we're on the subject of idioms of language, what do Germans say instead of typical english phrases like "firing on all cylinders" or "pouring gasoline on a fire"?

We need to change the way we think to steer away from the mine'n'burn economy toward cheap'n'abundant renewable energy!

Prost!

"Auf allen Zylindern feuern" und "Öl ins Feuer gießen", same as in english, same meaning. As for the Vulkan group members, we call them Vollpfosten or Denkverweigerer and I think that's beautiful.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon Musk on X: "Cybertruck on Hoth" - Mar 05, 2024

 

[sandervl]

Am I the only one who thinks it's strange a power outage can cost high triple digit million damages (is this number officially confirmed?)? Don't they have a backup generator/battery storage to at least allow for an orderly shutdown of the factory? Profits from Megapacks are more important than mitigating such a risk apparently.

I sure hope the security at Giga Berlin will be increased as this unfortunately looks like just the beginning.

 

[Cult Member]

Bitte schön... since we're on the subject of idioms of language, what do Germans say instead of typical english phrases like "firing on all cylinders" or "pouring gasoline on a fire"?

We need to change the way we think to steer away from the mine'n'burn economy toward cheap'n'abundant renewable energy!

Prost!

You know I'm in favour of a world without fossil fuels, but it's hard to say it with no reference to ICE or anything that burns.
"Lasst uns die Segel setzen" is harmless, or not?
I don't agree with T@oo about the names we give these individuals. A Vollpfosten is nearly every third person you get in contact with and I was called a Denkverweigerer myself for the first time this week. These are common names for the general public.
These groups are Antif@s. That's how they call themself and groups around the world with the same goals since many years (the @ is new). No, not just the world, the letter of confession reveals it in reference to Elon (Elend) Musk: "But our strong extra-planetary allies are already waiting for him; solar storms would crash his rocket, just as they have done to 30% of his satellites in space."

 

[Huskyf]

Am I the only one who thinks it's strange a power outage can cost high triple digit million damages (is this number officially confirmed?)? Don't they have a backup generator/battery storage to at least allow for an orderly shutdown of the factory? Profits from Megapacks are more important than mitigating such a risk apparently.

I sure hope the security at Giga Berlin will be increased as this unfortunately looks like just the beginning.

No because the giga factory Berlin is not finished yet see what's happened in Giga Texas they just started to install it

 

[mongo]

No because the giga factory Berlin is not finished yet see what's happened in Giga Texas they just started to install it

"Just started to install it" is incorrect. The site is fully installed and approved by LCRA (though there may be some kinks to work out).

 

[Cult Member]

Am I the only one who thinks it's strange a power outage can cost high triple digit million damages (is this number officially confirmed?)? Don't they have a backup generator/battery storage to at least allow for an orderly shutdown of the factory? Profits from Megapacks are more important than mitigating such a risk apparently.

I sure hope the security at Giga Berlin will be increased as this unfortunately looks like just the beginning.

You are suggesting a backup power supply for the complete plant or at least for critical sections.
At least all cars and parts in BIW (Stamping and Casting) and Painting are scrap now and the remains have to be cleared. Even this has to wait until power is back. All Robots have to be readjusted. Last step is to perform First piece release for each step. The complete restart should last one day. They can't produce around 1000 cars per day, 12.000 employees have to be paid and said that it's not sure that they are able to begin next Monday. Easy to calculate.
Will an attack like this happen again? Or will it be a container ship with parts for GIGA next? A plane/drone with TNT destroying the onsite transformer substation?
The nine-digit number was annonced by Andre Thierig, plant manager of the Gigafactory, in a press conference yesterday evening (german news)

Risk management is a hobby of Elon. I'm sure we'll see the consequences if there are any.

 

[hobbes]

Am I the only one who thinks it's strange a power outage can cost high triple digit million damages (is this number officially confirmed?)? Don't they have a backup generator/battery storage to at least allow for an orderly shutdown of the factory? Profits from Megapacks are more important than mitigating such a risk apparently.

I sure hope the security at Giga Berlin will be increased as this unfortunately looks like just the beginning.

Found the number too high, too. I guess that it is a very crude calculation of "thousands of cars in a week time tenthousands of EUR per car" that gets you to triple digit million amounts. Maybe they are just trying to scare the arsonists but I am afraid they might take it as a measure of success instead.

I think there are too many attack vectors to shield a factory against everything. The electric infrastructre they burned down was miles away from Giga Berlin. Setting up Mega Packs would be very costly to keep the factory running for days for the quite unlikely event this happens again. If you have an unstable grid which goes down every few weeks for just a short time, that would make a lot of sense but not here IMHO.

 

[sandervl]

Found the number too high, too. I guess that it is a very crude calculation of "thousands of cars in a week time tenthousands of EUR per car" that gets you to triple digit million amounts. Maybe they are just trying to scare the arsonists but I am afraid they might take it as a measure of success instead.

Agreed.

I think there are too many attack vectors to shield a factory against everything. The electric infrastructre they burned down was miles away from Giga Berlin. Setting up Mega Packs would be very costly to keep the factory running for days for the quite unlikely event this happens again. If you have an unstable grid which goes down every few weeks for just a short time, that would make a lot of sense but not here IMHO.

I'm only talking about enough capacity to shut down the factory as they did several weeks ago. It sounds like the power went off, the lights went out and everybody hurried outside.

An hour or two of emergency power might have allowed them to shut everything down more or less orderly. Possibly saving a lot of money and/or time to restart the factory.

 

[Fred42]

In the mean time… BYD not waiting till their RoRo Capacity has been built.
Cars in standard size container frames, ready to be transported by containerships.
What you see here is the European car producers' nightmare.

View attachment 1024996

Does the EU have a treaty that prevents a tariff on imported Chinese cars?

 

[Doit]

Yes, well, but then I see this also in SFO but things don't look too peachy.

What do you think?

I watched part of this 1+ hour long video. Oh boy, this seems the reverse-Omar: this Singaporean?/taiwanese? lady presented the worst moment of FSD from seemingly all the crappiest SF roads. But she's quite brave and objective. The day her stress test passes like or better than human is probably the day of L5, methinks.

 

[unk45]

Here is the first two months of 2024 sales for Brazil:

This is from Auto Industria. BYD has come from zero a year ago, these are all imported, BYD is still completing modifications to the former huge Ford factory in Bahia. BYD says they expect 120,000 sales in Brazil this year. Oddly, the Dolphin Mini (née Seagull) is selling well, to the surprise of most observers.

In context the Fiat Uno Ciao is R$84,990 base. For those who don’t know this is the last gasp for the Uno, in production since 1983 and meets essential none of modern safety standards. The Dolphin Mini is modern, cheap to operate and meets all the modern standards, and has excellent financing. Hence it’s success is, while surprising, not quite so much as it seems. The real shock is that BYD outsold Chery, built in Brazil and with a range of models. In context, because BYD has built busses fir years in Brazil and has battery and solar production in addition to their soon-to-be-open Bahia. car factory the government is disposed to be cooperative.


Obviously, the market is ripe for Tesla, especially if they open some sort of plant, even for only raw materials to begin with. Model Y and 3 have decent potential even though the ‘Model 2’ will certainly be the volume leader.

 

[H Mak]

Swedish "Medieakademin" conducts annual surveys of randomly selected Swedes' trust in political parties, institutions and corporations. In this year's survey, they included Tesla, who ended up in the bottom of the 11 companies they asked about. Even lower than the Swedish state owned railways company, which is notoriously unpopular because of constant disruptions and delays in railway transports.

Förtroendebarometern - Medieakademin

Sedan 1997 gör Medieakademin en årlig förtroendebarometer. Undersökningen mäter förtroende för samhällsinstitutioner, enskilda företag och massmedier.

medieakademin.se

Meanwhile, Swedish people who are not wasting time on surveys, are buying Tesla cars. Best selling car in Sweden in 2023? Tesla Model Y

 

[Atomsla]

Meanwhile, Swedish people who are not wasting time on surveys, are buying Tesla cars. Best selling car in Sweden in 2023? Tesla Model Y

No doubt Tesla is constantly negatively highlighted in the news since the strike began.