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I have been concerned about Tesla’s direction for a while, today doesn’t give me any joy.
Failure to learn lessons ( or even acknowledging we have a problem) will make the recovery more difficult.
I have been concerned about Tesla’s direction for a while, today doesn’t give me any joy.
Failure to learn lessons ( or even acknowledging we have a problem) will make the recovery more difficult.
The best thing you all can do is to sign up to drive Uber in your Tesla. Once you experience your riders reaction to the product, the company you invested in. You will have exactly ZERO reservations about your investment. Give it a try. So much fun.
The best thing you all can do is to sign up to drive Uber in your Tesla. Once you experience your riders reaction to the product, the company you invested in. You will have exactly ZERO reservations about your investment. Give it a try. So much fun.
The software doesn't allow it. Note that the moderators have no control at all over the software.
Note also that the mod (singular) already weighed in and has been roundly ignored. I could start issuing bans, or I can go away and do my day job for a week or two. I think I'll do the latter.
I spoke with someone I know very well from Tesla, and they gave me some insight on why sales are down right now. This doesn't explain all the sales drop, but is part of the reason sales in NA are falling like a rock.
At the end of last year, they rolled out a new call routing service. If you call your local Tesla, you get routed to a central call center now. The people that staff the call center are not passionate nor knowledgable about the products, nor do they really know local conditions. The person told me that after the system was rolled out, the leads they got dropped like a rock. Showrooms started going emptier and the there was a noticeable difference. The whole idea was that people would buy online and not need help, but if there was a need for help, someone would always pick up in the call center. But buying a car is a very big proposition, and most older generations are not comfortable buying online. Instead of getting someone local who knows the product back and forth and can guide them through the buying process, you get a apathetic call center people who answer some questions but don't really sell the benefits of the Tesla experience.
The person I talked to is someone I've known for years, and is someone I trust very much. They were adamant that this experience was part of the reason that their region in NA missed targets by over 50%. I didn't believe it but I tried it myself. I called the call center and this was what I got:
1. Person said that most of the Model Ys were built in Texas (not Fremont)
2. I asked if a SR Model Y was a structural pack and they had no clue what it was
3. I asked about the charging rate for a SR Model Y, and they had no clue. Had to look it up and told me it was 40 mph (wrong, that's for the LR)
4. Asked if I could schedule a test drive, and they told me to do it online (what if I was old?)
If you don't believe me you can try for yourself, would love to get some confirmations. Worst part about it is this apparently is some middle management's pet project at Tesla and they are hiding the effects of it from Elon.
Tesla California sales in 2023 are a good metric for testing whether the CEO's political activism has caused mass left-wing aversion to the Tesla brand such that vehicle sales have been harmed.
Why this matters:
California's government provides some of the most comprehensive and detailed EV sales data of any regional market in the world
California is the most prominent left-leaning state in America
California is the leading EV market in America in terms of both total volume and EV market share, and since the very beginning it has been a leading indicator for EV growth trends elsewhere
California and SF Bay Area politics have been the specific target of much of Elon's political activism since 2020
Overall, Tesla has continued to maintain a dominant position in the California EV market in the last couple of years. Tesla's share of the general light-duty vehicle (LDV) market in California is now 13%. This all-time record for Tesla is an increase from 11.7% last year and it is second only to Toyota's 15.7%. Tesla accomplished this with a four-vehicle menu that leaves major gaps in the market unserved, such as pickup trucks, full-size SUVs, compact sedans and compact hatchbacks. In 2023, Tesla achieved 61% BEV market share by selling 230k out of 376k total BEVs with at least 200 miles of nominal range. Tesla outsold the next-best competitor, Chevrolet, by almost 12x. This is approximately the same ratio of Tesla to the 2nd-place BEV competitor that Tesla has enjoyed across the US as a whole for many years. Although 61% is down significantly from 73% from last year, Tesla still posted significant 8.2% growth statewide in 2022. Tesla's market share declined because everyone else grew faster.
California Energy Commission (2023). California Energy Commission Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics. Data last updated [24 Jan 2024]. Retrieved [2 Apr 2024] from Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics.
All numbers in thousands.
Year
Tesla % BEV Share
Tesla % LDV Share
Tesla Sold
LDV Sold
BEV Sold
2013
42%
0.5%
9
1,773
21
2014
24%
0.4%
7
1,969
30
2015
30%
0.5%
11
2,217
38
2016
45%
0.8%
17
2,207
38
2017
38%
0.8%
17
2,183
46
2018
72%
3.1%
69
2,252
95
2019
74%
3.3%
70
2,154
95
2020
79%
4.5%
83
1,864
106
2021
75%
6.8%
137
2,016
184
2022
73%
11.6%
213
1,835
292
2023
61%
12.9%
230
1,786
380
Tesla's decline in California market share may be disappointing but it is understandable. Both of the US factories, but especially Fremont, are close to maximum output for the S3XY models for the existing production lines. Also, the S3XY models are already so dominant in California that they may be close to their demand limits under current macroeconomic conditions. The Model Y and Model 3 were the #1 and #2 best-selling vehicles of any kind in California, by a wide margin. The Y sold slightly more than the RAV-4, CR-V, Rogue and Tucson combined. There still may be substantial room for this ceiling to grow over time, as awareness increases and the Supercharger network and service center network continue to expand.
Let's zoom out for context:
61% share is still double what it used to be before the Model 3 was introduced
Competitors emerged from the chip shortage in 2023 and thus were much less supply constrained than during the pandemic. The entire automotive industry had a glut of supply, prices dropped across the industry, and dealership inventories grew.
2017 saw a similarly large drop in CA BEV market share when S&X sales peaked and 3 was still in the beginning of Production Hell.
California is the leading state in the USA for selling compliance EVs at a loss, because California is a huge market with stringent regulatory requirements and it is the most lucrative automotive market in the nation. Tesla is selling into a tilted playing field because customers are subsidizing their losses with earnings from ICE and hybrid sales, but this situation won't last forever.
2023 was another weak year of growth for the overall automotive market in California. Overall LDV sales were 10% lower than in the peak years of 2015 through 2018.
California has a overall liberal and leftist population supermajority, but it's a big state with almost 40 million people living it it and it is politically, geographically, culturally, ethnically and economically diverse. The populous coastal counties that comprise the major urban areas are heavily left-leaning, whereas the rural counties are heavily right-leaning, and many other counties are somewhere in between.
In the leftist urban and coastal counties, Tesla did have a decline in their BEV market share from its peak in 2020. In 2023 alone, it declined from 74% to 61%. However, this decline was right in line with the overall trend for California in which Tesla's market share dropped from 73% to 61%. Also, Tesla still showed growth in these left-leaning counties. The only exception was San Mateo county just south of San Francisco and just north of Silicon Valley. San Mateo for some reason had sales collapse by 38% in 2023. I don't have any idea why this happened, but San Mateo is a fairly small market and it was heavily saturated with Teslas until 2022. Despite that lone outlier, overall in the most left-wing counties in California, Tesla actually grew their sales volume by 8.1%, which was almost exactly equal to the Tesla's statewide sales growth of 8.2%.
Even with wide variation in regional demographics, culture and politics, Tesla overall increased sales volume in California pretty evenly throughout the state. Tesla grew the same in woke, socialist metropolises, in liberal suburbs, and in MAGA Trumpland (which does exist in California). Tesla even grew sales by 5% in San Francisco county, which is the bluest county in the state, is the epicenter of the Twitter/X and OpenAI controversy, and has been directly accused by Elon of propagating a radical "woke mind virus" that will destroy civilization as we know it.
County
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
% Change YoY
Los Angeles
16809
20902
35844
61573
58374
-5%
Orange
9503
11628
18122
26945
31444
17%
Santa Clara
10122
8963
13072
19908
24593
24%
San Diego
5585
7352
11979
16512
19882
20%
Alameda
5714
5418
8418
12444
15039
21%
Riverside
2031
2917
6111
8961
10635
19%
San Bernardino
1694
2241
4604
7495
9271
24%
Contra Costa
2882
3376
5427
7700
8550
11%
Sacramento
1351
1783
3280
5770
7316
27%
San Mateo
3412
3458
5085
11230
6937
-38%
San Francisco
1933
2801
3806
4914
5171
5%
Ventura
1509
1783
3081
4507
4759
6%
San Joaquin
670
846
1819
3062
4610
51%
Unfortunately, Tesla grew sales in California with the help of large price reductions. However, Tesla also reduced prices by the same amount all across the US and similar amounts in all major EV markets around the world. Also, competitors cut prices on their EVs shortly after Tesla did, and inventory has been piling up at their dealerships. It's important to note that Tesla's online ordering and transparent pricing means that we know they were selling vehicles at the same prices throughout California.
All of this evidence casts major doubt on the belief that Elon's political activism has been the primary cause of growth slowdown and price reductions. It is questionable whether it even is a net factor at all. There has been no observed correlation between the political bias of a local market and Tesla's BEV market share. It appears that the broader tough market conditions have affected the whole EV market in the state and worldwide, with BYD the only other player looking decent in 2023. That being said, a lack of correlation doesn't necessarily mean there was no effect. The urban and coastal areas in California have many differences from the rural areas, so maybe Elon's antics were hurting demand in the metro areas but some other factors were tailwinds in these same areas. Still, the simpler and more likely explanation is that the politics did not have a majorly negative effect. Either way, end result is the same and the data shows no cause for alarm.
I don't know about the other parts of the TMC forums, but this is a moderated thread started by @AudubonB and there are certain standards.
This thread gets really busy and is hard to keep up with. Posts need to be high quality and focused for all our benefit and the mods are here to help with that.
Politics is unfortunately a factor with Tesla and TSLA, but this thread needs to avoid continuous argument which is why we need to moderate our discussion of politics. There is a fine line here that we all must respect for all our benefit.
I very much appreciate the mods' and fellow members' dedication to high signal to noise here. Thank you!
As for Q1 results my long term answer is simple: HODL!
AUSTIN, Texas, April 2, 2024 – In the first quarter, we produced over 433,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 387,000 vehicles. We deployed 4,053 MWh of energy storage products in Q1, the highest quarterly deployment yet.
I spoke with someone I know very well from Tesla, and they gave me some insight on why sales are down right now. This doesn't explain all the sales drop, but is part of the reason sales in NA are falling like a rock.
At the end of last year, they rolled out a new call routing service. If you call your local Tesla, you get routed to a central call center now. The people that staff the call center are not passionate nor knowledgable about the products, nor do they really know local conditions. The person told me that after the system was rolled out, the leads they got dropped like a rock. Showrooms started going emptier and the there was a noticeable difference. The whole idea was that people would buy online and not need help, but if there was a need for help, someone would always pick up in the call center. But buying a car is a very big proposition, and most older generations are not comfortable buying online. Instead of getting someone local who knows the product back and forth and can guide them through the buying process, you get a apathetic call center people who answer some questions but don't really sell the benefits of the Tesla experience.
The person I talked to is someone I've known for years, and is someone I trust very much. They were adamant that this experience was part of the reason that their region in NA missed targets by over 50%. I didn't believe it but I tried it myself. I called the call center and this was what I got:
1. Person said that most of the Model Ys were built in Texas (not Fremont)
2. I asked if a SR Model Y was a structural pack and they had no clue what it was
3. I asked about the charging rate for a SR Model Y, and they had no clue. Had to look it up and told me it was 40 mph (wrong, that's for the LR)
4. Asked if I could schedule a test drive, and they told me to do it online (what if I was old?)
If you don't believe me you can try for yourself, would love to get some confirmations. Worst part about it is this apparently is some middle management's pet project at Tesla and they are hiding the effects of it from Elon.
This phenomenon is further proof that most car buyers don't rely on internet information exclusively for car buying decisions. Tesla vehicle are technically advanced, but less informed buyers don't know how this affects them. The only thing they think of is the difficulty of charging because it is easy to understand. Switching to EV is a big move, financially and emotionally. Basically all your car owning and driving habits need to change. The average consumer needs some handholding. If the company that produces these things can't alleviate their concerns by answering some simple questions, they will easily lose interest. Tesla's poor training of employees, be it service center salespeople or call center staff, has caught up to them.
Turns out, a superior product doesn't just sell itself.
I'm buying back in after the earnings call. Sold a bunch of shares last week in anticipation of disappointing results following the FSD rush. Will probably buy some more after Q2 earnings. After this, the stock may rebound once Tesla figures out how to market its vehicles effectively, through both employee training and advertising.
I spoke with someone I know very well from Tesla, and they gave me some insight on why sales are down right now. This doesn't explain all the sales drop, but is part of the reason sales in NA are falling like a rock.
At the end of last year, they rolled out a new call routing service. If you call your local Tesla, you get routed to a central call center now. The people that staff the call center are not passionate nor knowledgable about the products, nor do they really know local conditions. The person told me that after the system was rolled out, the leads they got dropped like a rock. Showrooms started going emptier and the there was a noticeable difference. The whole idea was that people would buy online and not need help, but if there was a need for help, someone would always pick up in the call center. But buying a car is a very big proposition, and most older generations are not comfortable buying online. Instead of getting someone local who knows the product back and forth and can guide them through the buying process, you get a apathetic call center people who answer some questions but don't really sell the benefits of the Tesla experience.
The person I talked to is someone I've known for years, and is someone I trust very much. They were adamant that this experience was part of the reason that their region in NA missed targets by over 50%. I didn't believe it but I tried it myself. I called the call center and this was what I got:
1. Person said that most of the Model Ys were built in Texas (not Fremont)
2. I asked if a SR Model Y was a structural pack and they had no clue what it was
3. I asked about the charging rate for a SR Model Y, and they had no clue. Had to look it up and told me it was 40 mph (wrong, that's for the LR)
4. Asked if I could schedule a test drive, and they told me to do it online (what if I was old?)
If you don't believe me you can try for yourself, would love to get some confirmations. Worst part about it is this apparently is some middle management's pet project at Tesla and they are hiding the effects of it from Elon.
I noticed the same problem when I bought my MY last year. This was my third Tesla purchase and it was by far the worst experience of the three because it was really hard to get someone local on the phone.
When you are making a big purchase you want to talk to someone on the phone at the place you are buying the car.
I have been a Tesla owner for 14 years now and an investor for over 10 years. I am quite disappointed that production and deliveries dropped quarter over quarter, but especially year over year while most automotive companies saw growth. Plant investment has slowed and Elon seems to be bracing for a recession rather than trying to grow the company. Without growth Tesla is just another car company. Now one quarter does not make a trend but for the first time in many years I am worried. And unfortunately for the first time even I think Elon with his tweets has been much more of a hinderance than a help. Maybe he will quiet down and get back to growing Tesla. So I have not yet given up.
ir.tesla.com
