Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Oh no! China registrations are only 6,000! Sound the alarms!

Tesla is now in the Trough of Disillusionment, the Valley of Doubt. Prepare for Enligtenment.

Well it was only 2k last week so they managed to triple sales by firing people.

 

[Usain]

So you are arguing for essentially "geofencing" Tesla RT's using FSD today.

My initial thought is, while FSD v12.3.4 is damn impressive, its not RT ready yet by any means.

However, I have had plenty of intervention free rides with FSD over the past few weeks myself. I have a couple of routes where from my house to the destination I can literally trust the car to drive the complete way without issue.

So technically what you propose could be possible. Maybe Elon is thinking along these lines, placing Tesla RT's in regions or routes where it can function without requiring interventions, and growing those zones as FSD gets better over time.

Yes. Exactly.

And as I've been saying, geofencing is the only realistic way to get started. To start a robotaxi service, you need a high concentration of vehicles and maintenance infrastructure such as charging and cleaning. There is no way you could start by launching nationwide.

 

[Huskyf]

Oh no! China registrations are only 6,000! Sound the alarms!

Tesla is now in the Trough of Disillusionment, the Valley of Doubt. Prepare for Enligtenment.

But order tesla car is 12 - 15k last week for me no alarm if you look they jump from 1900 to 6000 registration in one week next week perhaps 9000 or 12 000

 

[scaesare]

Layoffs are normal at every company.

Layoffs at a company valued for high earnings growth (PE ratio of 60!!!) while earnings are shrinking, is not normal. Well not normal for a healthy company.

Long term, investors need to be wary of what long term gross margins are operating margins are going to settle to. Issues such as the 4680 debacle (the extreme delay and fact it is still slowly ramping is a debacle) affect both growth and cost reduction trajectories. You may not like it, but this affects valuation even long term.

Tesla operates much more like a high-tech company than traditional auto manufacturing. It' snot uncommon for hi-tech leaders to lay off the bottom performing X% of employees every year, even if those performers are above average for the industry.

 

[Knightshade]

J3016 doesn't matter. Documents don't matter. We just fundamentally disagree on this.

Ok- but you are factually wrong about it- and seem adamant about not even understanding why.

Because the literal law required J3016 compliance in every state that allows self driving in the US.

The only thing that really matters is if it can reliably do the job with better safety than a human.

Your complete dismissal of the requirements of actual law is... stunning.

As long as the service works safely and reliably, no silly document is going to stop it.

I don't think a court would be convinced at your trial by calling laws silly. Best of luck to you though!

Could be Elon preparing a shorty burn with surprise good earnings.

From what source? The only "new" revenue recognition from FSD in Q1 would be whatever fraction was in reserve for newer cars not getting self-parking, which now they have (and since it's recognizing $ they were already paid would be backed out as a one-off anyway). There'll ideally be some good #s out of megapacks, but no indiciation this will be especially outsized.

 

[scaesare]

I don't think there's anything wrong with having an out sized ego, as long as the person is on the good side of the line that divides out sized ego with arrogance.

Everyone has an ego, however we've seen Elon recognize/admit when it got the best of him, and indications he tries to temper it:

- Admitting the Model X with it's door desgin was "the height of hubris"

- Saying "I hate to tell you this, but I'm not always right you know"

- "Our goal is to be less wrong"

-etc...


It doesn't mean his ego won't get the best of him again, but he's not an egotistical megalomaniac either.

 

[growler23]

Watch Steven Peeters video on YouTube from the last couple of days about FSD approval in Europe being delayed for the indefinite future.

Rohan was the Tesla executive that was working closest on this project. Perhaps he sees this ruling as an insurmountable obstacle. And we know that Elon won't stop for some government rules, he's going to carry on until it is approved.

Meanwhile, Model 2 will be built in Europe (likely at Giga Berlin), and most likely it will have a removable steering wheel and pedals. Robo taxis will wake up all at once with approval. How do Germans say "Après moi, le déluge"?

I dare say, we have missed your sunny disposition. Glad to see you back, @Artful Dodger !
In this time of perceived company directional change, "dancing with the gal that brung ya'" (trusting Elon, the engineering team, and the vision of folks who have MUCH more data than we do) is welcome right now.
I believe we are witnessing yet another turning point in the company. How the dice roll from here, of course no one can fully predict.... guess I need to HODL some more. Hold on and keep your arms inside the ride...
I have made a pact with myself: the first use of my Tesla shot glasses occurs at SP > $300. Curious how much longer they will stay dry.
--Growler out

 

[scaesare]

If Drew was just burned out, why not take a sabbatical instead of leaving the company? IMHO, people that love their jobs and have been at a company a long time don't bail unless something has caused them to no longer love their jobs, or there is a better opportunity elsewhere. Or it wasn't their choice. I don't buy "I wanted to spend more time with my family"

Long term perhaps. That's not saying "I never want to work again", but often, "I'm gonna take a month or two with my family" while I figure out what's next. It's not necessarily an indication of being pushed out, but certainly can indicate needing a change of pace.

 

[Usain]

Ok- but you are factually wrong about it- and seem adamant about not even understanding why.

Because the literal law required J3016 compliance in every state that allows self driving in the US.





Your complete dismissal of the requirements of actual law is... stunning.





I don't think a court would be convinced at your trial by calling laws silly. Best of luck to you though!

So Tesla just starts in a state that doesn't use the silly document. Problem solved.

And as I've pointed out before, if Tesla can perform as well as Waymo then it will be in compliance anyway. You have yet to tell me what Waymo does that Tesla FSD could not easily be trained to do.

 

[scaesare]

All these posts attempting to make a sticky wicket out of the Cybertruck accelerator problem need to know adhesives like Gorilla glue or Flex Glue work really well. A less than 5 minute visit by a Tesla mobile service tech and you're good to go.

The concern is not the ease of repair... it's the potential for an ungood event we'd all rather not see.

Tesla taking fast action is a good thing, and in line with their "safety first" stance.

 

[scaesare]

Great visual of the potential of what Tesla and Boring Company are partnering on to work towards -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779772236645183811

And Boston's Big Dig was an expensive nightmare. I'd love to see what The Boring Company could do with it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Since it's today an L2 system lacking at least 3 definitional things required for a driverless car-(a complete OEDR, a DDT fallback ability, and a defined L4 ODD) no, it's really not.

Attempt number 398 to ask you to actually read and understand J3016 so you stop getting this so fundamentally wrong.

Excuse me oh mighty guru of FSD... How on earth do you know that Tesla is NOT preparing or even complete with some of the items you describe.

I'm getting sick of this pessimism. All of you in fact.

 

[Knightshade]

So Tesla just starts in a state that doesn't use the silly document. Problem solved.

So they start in a state that does not exist. Because as I noted every state I'm aware of that allows deployment of self driving cars requires compliance with J3016. Usually directly citing to the document in the law and using J3016 exact wording for their foundational definitions of things.


So your plan keeps getting worse.

You have yet to tell me what Waymo does that Tesla FSD could not easily be trained to do.

I have. Many times. I cited the 3 specific, foundational, things FSD as it exists today is missing like 3 posts (of mine) ago maybe an hour ago. They are not things "they just need to train more" on- they are fundamental things that don't currently exist in the software.

L4 is not "L2 that is really good". There's specific functionality that one has and the other does not beyond just how "good" it seems to drive.

Each time you refuse to try and understand it and simply dismiss J3016 requirements as "silly"

 

[scaesare]

Agree with much of this. I also tend to think seeing Tesla ever produce more than a few million vehicles per year is no longer a thing. Elons not dumb. Maybe pivoting away from automotive and more to storage, solar and software is a more profitable direction. But a part of me wanted to see tesla become a major auto manufacturer. I don’t think that’s going to happen.

I disagreed because I don't see Tesla not growing as the entire EV market does.

Now I suspect there will be fits and starts in the segment as a whole, as there are LOTS of players with vested interests in it not growing, but as a whole, I think it's inevitable...

 

[scaesare]

They have so much cash they need to...cut 10-20% of their workforce?

"You know how to make a small fortune in manufacturing?

Start with a large one and fail to control costs."

-Peter Rawlinson

 

[scaesare]

haha. love this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780022264362422434

Typos and all!

 

[Knightshade]

Excuse me oh mighty guru of FSD... How on earth do you know that Tesla is NOT preparing or even complete with some of the items you describe.

I'm getting sick of this pessimism. All of you in fact.

We know the OEDR is incomplete simply by using it- and noting the many objects it either does not accurately (or at all) detect or react to.

We know there's no DDT fallback system simply by using it- and noting the behavior when you don't show the car you're there to take over.

We know there's no defined L4 ODD because-- there isn't one (and can't be one until you've solved items 1 and 2 above)

This isn't pessimism- it's facts.


I suppose you can "hope" Tesla has all this SECRECTLY HIDDEN FIXED in whatever build Elon is using but not actually in any production code, and not letting anyone know because REASONS. But in the livestreamed V12 drive Elon did it clearly was not.

Hope is not a strategy.

 

[Ellec]

From what source? The only "new" revenue recognition from FSD in Q1 would be whatever fraction was in reserve for newer cars not getting self-parking, which now they have (and since it's recognizing $ they were already paid would be backed out as a one-off anyway). There'll ideally be some good #s out of megapacks, but no indiciation this will be especially outsized.

I was kinda joking, but no one knows the figures till the come out. I agree it would have to be something out of left field, however expectations are so low now even high end of estimates would be seen as a positive.

 

[Krugerrand]

His young kids will never need to work.

If he’s an intelligent person, they will work.

 

[Ellec]

Agree with much of this. I also tend to think seeing Tesla ever produce more than a few million vehicles per year is no longer a thing. Elons not dumb. Maybe pivoting away from automotive and more to storage, solar and software is a more profitable direction. But a part of me wanted to see tesla become a major auto manufacturer. I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Given ICE cars will be banned in the coming years there is still massive amount of growth to go for EV's. Just because it has not grown as quickly the last years due to interest rates etc doesn't mean it's over. 80 million light vehicles sold a year all have to become EV's eventually.