HopefullyI'm OK with it too.
I just think this has more to do with why Drew et al left yesterday than the stated reason, and we will learn more details over the next week and the quarterly results discussion.
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HopefullyI'm OK with it too.
I just think this has more to do with why Drew et al left yesterday than the stated reason, and we will learn more details over the next week and the quarterly results discussion.
Until you discount rides for other times. Easy fix.... Come into work early and it's free, offsets by higher prices at peak demand. Just one of many possible scenarios. The city has an interest as well, and might even kick in $ to control traffic and make better use of the existing roads (cost avoidance).I think this is only true if RTs are only a small percentage of cars. If there are enough RTs to handle a good portion of rush hour, then most of the RT fleet will sit idle until the next rush hour.
I don't see how you start a robotaxi service without human safety drivers at first. You can't just set the car loose and hope for the best.
The key to actually solving the robotaxi use case is for Tesla to just start doing robotaxi work.
Tesla will do it with a safety driver and find out the true delta between what they have and what they need.
Tesla will not find that delta from looking at a document. That would be the wrong approach. Tesla will never solve robotaxi from reading a document.
The solution is to test, fix, test, fix, test, fix, ........
Once "safe and reliable" are proven, regulators will be satisfied with Tesla just as they were with Waymo.
Wow. That’s completely different than our experience. 12.3.3 was competent and reliable. 12.3.4 is not a huge regression but definitely a step back. Lane selection is worse, it’s lost its ability to merge again and it will make last minute route changes including proceeding thru intersections in the wrong lane.not my experience with 12.3.4 at all very confident in picking lanes especially on NYC streets with 4 lanes and parking in one of the lanes where cars go in and out of lanes to avoid parked cars ... just did a drive it was great at it ...
This is one that has vastly changed in recent years. Only a couple decades back a Director was very senior, typically a member of a governing board. Now it really is situational, with often fairly low level. Same with Vice President, which is meaningless in financial services, but sometimes very senior in industrial companies. Titles are situational so I never attribute significance to one unless i also know the corporate structure.I've score you 50/50 for that one--- though I think a title of "Senior Manager of Cathode Materials & Manufacturing" at a company like Tesla might be above middle.... That said- a director is absolutely an executive at every major corp I've worked for and as commonly used in the US.
Are you sure about that? Frankly I'm more excited about FSD and RT being able to perform tasks that humans cannot, like a 25 car "train" traveling 100 mph down freeways like I90 in Eastern WA, from which vehicles in specific locations can either join or disembark with no human intervention, or Semi convoys doing something similar. It may soon be that high speed rail is no longer needed. Or traffic lights connected with a city version, allowing traffic to travel across town in a fraction of the time.<snip>
Continue to emulate the humans - so far so good.
I've found it pretty close to miraculous in function, though as you point out not perfect. But... in terms of utility? I'd be OK with it if it had just come with the car, but not really seeing the practical use since I essentially have to keep my hands on the wheel and pay at least as much attention as I did without it. Also... it mainly drives like grandma.Wow. That’s completely different than our experience. 12.3.3 was competent and reliable. 12.3.4 is not a huge regression but definitely a step back. Lane selection is worse, it’s lost its ability to merge again and it will make last minute route changes including proceeding thru intersections in the wrong lane.
I think it’s a good thing that all the free trials were on 12.3.3 as many would have been freaked out by 12.3.4.
Yep, every state requires J3016 as a defining standard, but J3016 is NOT itself a requirement. Find the doc here: SAE Levels of Driving Automation™ Refined for Clarity and International AudienceThat is not correct.
Florida specifically requires meeting numerous, specific, requirements for a self driving system, all of which use the definitions and terms taken from J3016.
FL law here:
Read down to section 3- Automated driving system.
They define numerous specific features (like dynamic driving task and operational design domain), all of which take their definitions directly from J3016 and the system must meet those requirements to be a legal automated driving system in Florida.
Further down they use another J3016- "achieve a minimal risk condition" with a pointer to where that is defined ni FL law, which is here:
Where again they use J3016 definitions for both the L3 version of DDT fallback (human must respond to an alert to take over) and the L4 version (vehicle can achieve a minimal risk condition without a human, and the J3016 definition of what minimal risk condition is.
So yes- quite a bit about how it does it. All using the specific language and definitions from J3016.
Maybe. But the car culture is still strong in North America and to some degree in Europe. It could be a decade or more before RT significantly affects personal vehicle sales. Will tesla stay with the same five models until then? You would think there would be at least rumours of other product (vehicle) development going on at tesla. And maybe there is. But it would be helpful for investors to know that.
Jmho.
Hmmm.... this Does not compute, Dr. Smith."just train more" doesn't magically create those functions.
Hmmm.... this Does not compute, Dr. Smith.
Unless AI Driver was making it up that U-Turns were a byproduct of more data, there was never a function created to perform this maneuver. So why wouldn't this also apply to object avoidance on the road?
This is precisely what was meant by Tesla AI having a "ChatGPT moment"
I don’t know about sounding the alarms, but inquiring minds would like to know why the numbers are down.? Tesla is still a relatively small auto manufacturer, and it’s at least curious why growth has stalled. One would think given the size of the auto market, the quality and price of Tesla’s products, particularly the Model 3 and Y, would continue to drive sales growth. Unfortunately, that’s not happening.Oh no! China registrations are only 6,000! Sound the alarms!
Tesla is now in the Trough of Disillusionment, the Valley of Doubt. Prepare for Enligtenment.
Yep, every state requires J3016 as a defining standard, but J3016 is NOT itself a requirement.
Also from this statement, I conclude that the current model could be put into another mode than L2 given a few feature that I'd bet are currently being validated like L3 handoff/fallback and L4 "all foreseeable conditions in the ODD" like road closed and advisory sign handling and L5 unlimited domainView attachment 1039009
People keep saying it's a "bet the company" situation, but I think that's hyperbole. OG roadster, S and 3 were true do-or-die product launches. Nowadays, Tesla has a comfortable lead over the competition and plenty of cash, thanks to their prudent rejection of the shareholder demands to buy back stock last year to prop up the $TSLA price. They can afford to make a bold bet on autonomy and come up empty. At worst it will cost the company around $10 billion and set back the mission by a couple of years.View attachment 1038904
Seems like confirmation that Elon has decided to bet the company again. I think it's unnecessary to take that approach at this point and adds risk that wasn't needed.
Elon has a good track record. Time to decide in / out again for the ride.
I think we need to bear in mind that this company is led by an autistic man who has a strong preference for literal, precise, matter-of-fact communication and a strong distaste for any form of deception, including white lies that neurotypical people find to be acceptable. The usual social games do not apply. By his own account, as a kid he learned (slowly, gradually, painfully) that people don't always say exactly what they mean only by consciously noticing behavioral patterns in characters in books and movies, as is a common experience for intelligent people with autism. We may learn more, but I really doubt Elon is playing the normal games about disgraced executives leaving to "retire" and "spend more time with family". Also, this particular executive is a monumentally successful 41-year-old who has little kids who are probably wondering why Daddy is never home. Most people don't reach this level of a corporate management hierarchy in a company as big as Tesla until they are in their late 50s or 60s. As far as I know, Drew was second only to Gwynne Shotwell in terms of how long he tolerated having Elon Musk as his boss. With every passing year, the likelihood of him quitting has been increasing. Unfortunately, this is the year.I'm OK with it too.
I just think this has more to do with why Drew et al left yesterday than the stated reason, and we will learn more details over the next week and the quarterly results discussion.
Who said it was?…
Much like an L2 ADAS system- it can be very useful if you understand its limitations, but it's nowhere near ready to remove the human from the loop.
I don’t know about sounding the alarms, but inquiring minds would like to know why the numbers are down.? Tesla is still a relatively small auto manufacturer, and it’s at least curious why growth has stalled. One would think given the size of the auto market, the quality and price of Tesla’s products, particularly the Model 3 and Y, would continue to drive sales growth. Unfortunately, that’s not happening.
2018 (January) Model 3 RWD LR in California here.not my experience with 12.3.4 at all very confident in picking lanes especially on NYC streets with 4 lanes and parking in one of the lanes where cars go in and out of lanes to avoid parked cars ... just did a drive it was great at it ...