Current U.S. GDP is ~$25 tn. Not a serious estimate.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Current U.S. GDP is ~$25 tn. Not a serious estimate.
All applications of ... batteries! I dont think much has changed for me due to ... batteries!
That's why I just don't get it. How much upside as an investment does this have even in the most optimistic case? 10x? Tesla is worth $5.5 trillion now? Those are bullish ARKK numbers. It can happen, but calling it their best part of their growth from 2018 is not possible when it was 50x in 2018.
Then, don't invest. You make your own financial decisions. No one else does for you.
My previously recounted recent rear-end collision (while on FSD) is actually somewhat proof positive of your statement. The primate-driven car behind me had to accelerate from a full stop into my car, which my FSD had slowed after turning right. (aside: I think FSD 12.3.4 was waffling trying to pick a lane, one choice of which was becoming occupied). An FSD running in that rear car would never have looked away from/lost sight of my car (which presumably the human driver did) and would never have accelerated from a stop right into the back of my car.
Looks like this accident will cost my insurance well north of $10,000. Apparently the Model Y has a nice designed crashworthy area right around the middle of the rear bumper... which my crasher avoided by about a foot. Had they hit the designated crash zone, that piece can be unbolted and easily replaced. Instead they crumpled my rear corner panel, and smashed hard enough to break the bumper and dent the liftgate. Which means a new liftgate, and repainting the adjacent panels to match, and paint-blending some parts beyond that. Some other damage as well that is tough to decode from the jargon in the estimate. But yikes! Glad I have insurance. There is likely something to this "EVs are expensive to repair" idea. Also, I don't see any sign on the estimate that the gigacastings are damaged, or we'd likely be talking even more money. Sheesh.
Linear and one dimensional thinking (cars only) gets many in trouble. It is like thinking of NVidia as PC GPU manufacturer only or Amazon would sell books only forever.
dedicatedtek
Member
I thought Amazon sold reviews. /s
I'm starting to understand that everything Khosla, Gates, Bezos, etc. are betting on is to have viable alternatives in the ecosystemS that Elon Musk is creating across all of his current and future companies. Can't have an ecosystem, that's built on competition and capitalism, with only one entrant in a space!
ToTheStars
Member
That's not how it works. If someone makes an allegation, they should come with proof.
How about a rule of ten for this forum.
No more than ten posts on a single subject to prove one's point.
If you have ten negative posts, you need at least five positive ones to balance and then be able to post a negative one again.
No more than ten posts a day per user.
No more than ten posts on a single subject to prove one's point.
If you have ten negative posts, you need at least five positive ones to balance and then be able to post a negative one again.
No more than ten posts a day per user.
Maybe it is as Tesla is not just an American company. It gets revenue out of a lot of countries. You know, like China, Canada and even a bit out of Europe...
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Not making cars vs. making cars but not selling them to end users...those are two very different things.
I would agree with this possibility if I believed Tesla could satisfy their entire 2M/yr production capacity by making just robotaxis. That seems like it would be a very tall order any time in the near future.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
You can kind of infer some facts about the methodology from the axes of the graph.
The X axis is "Trial Start Date / Conversion Date," and I doubt most people would be able to respond the exact date which they started a trial or subscribed to a service if asked. I think that rules out polls. That, and there's some temporal inconsistency between the trial dates and conversion dates: Tesla began rolling out a 1 month free trial on March 29, so presumably the earliest you would see a conversion from the trial would be ~April 28. Their note says "The earliest observed conversion date is 4/12."
Given the precise dates and the inconsistency, my guess is that this is a social-media-scraping based dataset. They scraped Reddit/Twitter/here each day, and looked for phrases like "Got my trial!" to count the number of trials, and "I just subscribed" to count the conversion rates. The issue with this kind of methodology is I think you're much more likely to see people posting about being excited about the free trial than you are to see them post about the rather mundane act of activating a subscription afterwards.
Web polls are equally flawed, but one conducted on /r/TeslaLounge had over 400 responses:
Excluding people that voted "Other" the conversion rate for "Absolutely" or "Yes, but for a month at a time" would be about 37%.
Yes...did you read it? They cited a Tesla employee.
I already don't (and have disclosed multiple times I have no stake to drive the SP down or up since it doesn't affect me nor can Elon fire me), but I'm just voicing/countering someone's claim that Tesla's best growth (their words) were in front of them. People can invest however they want, but claiming their best growth (after a 50x increase in the past is now ahead?) (in an investment thread which is tied directly to their stock price), that's all I'm disagreeing with.
The Prius that I had before I got a Model S had adaptive cruise that was functional but much worse than the Tesla. It only detected vehicles that switch to your own lane when they’re already in the middle of your lane. I had many times that I had to brake myself to prevent an accident. But that was 2010 tech, I hope it’s better nowadays. Still, without a display that renders the cars interpretation of the road occupation, I don’t find it very trustworthy.
I'm not sure what you mean by "generalized" RoboTaxi? That could mean a lot of different levels of capability.
Are you saying there will be no Tesla RoboTaxi this decade?
I can remember when it seemed preposterous that a computer could beat a chess grandmaster. The problem was just too hard to solve. A computer could never beat a strong player. It was no match for human intuition, which is something we couldn't even understand, much less simulate. But after 10 years of research, IBM's Deep Blue beat reigning World Champion Gary Kasparaov, who is arguably the greatest player who ever lived.
Similarly, we are about 10 years into Tesla's autopilot/FSD efforts. And we don't even need to match the greatest driver who ever lived.
Automation has been a tough nut to crack. But it looks to me like Tesla has done it. The path seems clear now. I think just the opposite of @unk45. In my opinion there is zero chance that RoboTaxi is not delivered within this decade.
yup how big is the growing labor market ... if BOTs are successful which I think they will be then labor will be unconstrained and Tesla will be part of that hyperbolic growth ... vehicles are actually barely growing overall ...obviously EVs will grow within vehicles
Perhaps.
No other company has a CEO with the kind of reach Elon has. For better or worse, Elon's tweets have more impact than any PR statement from any other company on earth. If there is a message Elon wants to get out, it's out instantly. A PR department would just slow him down. (Yes, at times it seems that would be a good thing.)
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