Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GatorMeat]

That's not at all what I was saying, but thanks for putting words in my mouth.

My logic is: Tesla is going to be MASSIVELY profitable in Q2 because of the underproduction and excess sales above production in Q2. Watch and learn young padwan.

you really should listen to the others who are also telling you that is not how accounting works.

 

[NicoV]

Also like this version:

View attachment 1061534

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808132126463705204

An explanation for the way that graph looks the way it does, is that it is all caused by the lumpiness of the recognition of the sale of those large projects. We know that Tesla has been ramping the storage output for over a year, but the deployments have been lingering around the 4GWh level for 5 quarters, and now we have a single quarter of 10GWh. I guess that some big projects finally got accepted, unlocking several GWhs that have been on hold for some quarters. We will probably keep seeing a similar lumpiness in the future, i.e. quarters where the output doesn’t match the ramp, and quarters where the output is far above the ramp.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I am happy. That is all.

Deserves merit. Concise.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Holy share volume Batman! and we've got 3 more hours to go!

 

[Musskiah]

Sales > Production is good for cash flow, inventory. Profit is a function of sales so underproduction does not have a direct impact. In fact it could raise COGS due to the lower production rates > higher cost per unit.

Operating expenses are not a part of COGS. There will be additional revenue on reduced OPEX, which should come in right around $20B this Q, maybe a tad higher. Cash flow this Q will also be impressive, yes

 

[Musskiah]

you really should listen to the others who are also telling you that is not how accounting works.

Thanks dad

 

[Doggydogworld]

The C code and the NNs run on different chips though.

Different parts of the same chip. The original FSD chip had 8 ARM cores right next to the NN accelerator. I assume the latest chip uses a similar design.

You SHOULD ignore them-- because Tesla clearly had tons of inventory cars available and none of those things hurt sales.

I mostly agree with your points. Demand has softened, forcing Tesla to cut production and pricing. But inventory being unexpectedly stuck on ships that got rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope did hurt Q1 sales (and benefit Q2). I'd guess 5-10k worth.

My logic is: Tesla is going to be MASSIVELY profitable in Q2 because of the underproduction and excess sales above production in Q2. Watch and learn young padwan.

As multiple people have explained, that's not how it works. In fact it's the opposite -- lower factory utilization hurts COGS and reduces margins.
And while the layoffs cut opex, the savings in Q2 were offset by severance costs.
It's perfectly fine if you don't want to learn Accounting 101. Just stop trying to mislead others.

 

[AudubonB]

To today’s posters:
Thank you very much for providing crystal clarity who of you are NOT going to be invited to any of our Christmas parties.

 

[Usain]

I'm leaving energy out because, same as with cars, margins will compress even further.

I don't see how margins get squeezed much on the energy side. Demand is still quasi-infinite and battery cell prices will continue to fall.

 

[Knightshade]

Different parts of the same chip. The original FSD chip had 8 ARM cores right next to the NN accelerator. I assume the latest chip uses a similar design.

You are conflating "chip" with 'board'

The resources "freed up" by not using 300k lines of C code are mostly cycles on the ARM cores.

The end to end NNs run on the NN accelerators.

Again there's probably some "savings" from reduced traffic between them, and some memory savings, but it's not like the NNs themselves can suddenly run the stuff they were running on the NN chips on those ARM chips instead.

I mostly agree with your points. Demand has softened, forcing Tesla to cut production and pricing. But inventory being unexpectedly stuck on ships that got rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope did hurt Q1 sales (and benefit Q2). I'd guess 5-10k worth.

Given Tesla had ample inventory in the places those cars were going- what basis do you have for claiming those missing cars cost sales?

Can you cite any specific places there's any reports of cars not being available from inventory but there being expected deliveries to customers? I'm entirely open to the idea this is true but I've seen nothing in the numbers to actually support that, and plenty that contradicts it.

 

[Musskiah]

what basis do you have for claiming those missing cars cost sales?

South Shanghai Port. Specifically M3 Performance. This was posted days after Q1 P&D.

 

[Musskiah]

Just stop trying to mislead others.

Who am I misleading?

 

[unk45]

Thanks dad

YOU NEED NOT BE SNARKY. Several people how been trying to explain how accounting works.
It seems you may know the difference between cash flow and profitability. We do not have a basis to infer very much, apart from quite nice revenue last quarter.

We do know, not surmise, but know that both R&D and other Capex is unusually high with new products from Optimus, and the not-yet-disclosed new vehicles including, but not limited to Robotaxi. New factories are in development, and so on.

So, we'll find out in a short time how the quarter results will be for both cash flow and profitability.

It's premature to ascribe elation even though we probably all are rather positive right now.
Just remember that even when highly competent CPA's are assessing Near Term Financial Results they are less accurate than might be the case with deliveries.

 

[Musskiah]

YOU NEED NOT BE SNARKY.

Gator Meat: "Accounting and maths are hard"

I'm replying to snark above.

Several people how been trying to explain how accounting works.
It seems you may know the difference between cash flow and profitability. We do not have a basis to infer very much, apart from quite nice revenue last quarter.

We do know, not surmise, but know that both R&D and other Capex is unusually high with new products from Optimus, and the not-yet-disclosed new vehicles including, but not limited to Robotaxi. New factories are in development, and so on.

So, we'll find out in a short time how the quarter results will be for both cash flow and profitability.

It's premature to ascribe elation even though we probably all are rather positive right now.
Just remember that even when highly competent CPA's are assessing Near Term Financial Results they are less accurate than might be the case with deliveries.

The way you put things is vastly different than others, IMHO

 

[Musskiah]

Public declaration to put this to rest:

THANK YOU ALL WHO HAVE OFFERED LESSONS IN ACCOUNTING. APPRECIATED AND NOTED.

Most notably @Knightshade @GatorMeat @Stretch2727 @unk45 Humblest Gratitude

As you can see, I am ever the student.

 

[Knightshade]

South Shanghai Port. Specifically M3 Performance. This was posted days after Q1 P&D.

Nope. The Model 3 Performance wasn't even announced as orderable until Q2.


Here's the story you seem to be talking about:

New Tesla Model 3 Performance batch awaits export at Shanghai Port

Tesla still hasn’t announced the new Model 3 Performance, but it appears as though we may be close as a batch of the new electric sedans have been spotted at a port in China waiting […]

driveteslacanada.ca

It shows the 3P, which again was not even available to order yet sitting around just after start of production. In early Q2.

So 0 Q1 lost sales since nobody even had the ability to order, let alone take delivery, of that model in Q1.

PREsales of those-- didn't start until late April 2024...and official orders in June 2024. Source:

Tesla launches updated Model 3 Performance in China with pre-sale starting price of $46,360

Deliveries of the updated Model 3 Performance, the sedan's most powerful variant, in China will begin in the third quarter.

cnevpost.com

Much like the accounting thing you seem to keep posting stuff that's flatly untrue.... Why?

 

[nativewolf]

Who am I misleading?

Anybody that reads the forum and doesn't realize you know nothing. Whether it is accounting or RTs.

 

[unk45]

I don't see how margins get squeezed much on the energy side. Demand is still quasi-infinite and battery cell prices will continue to fall.

It certainly seems likely that Tesla Energy margins are not likely to be falling now. Even though there are growing competitors the total addressable market is growing far faster than is supply, primality because of a global massive increase in data centers energy consumption, driven primarily by a massive rush towards generative AI.

Then there is also the fact that non-continuous energy supplies (wind, solar, even hydraulic) are rapidly growing without adequate storage ti hero minimize the timing imbalance.

I suppose we must keep repeating these high level forces because they are driving near-exponential growth.

In sum: Margins are NOT likely to decline, but 'lumpiness' will increase because average size of installations is rising rapidly, so income recognition will not be smooth.

 

[Musskiah]

Nope. The Model 3 Performance wasn't even announced as orderable until Q2.


Here's the story you seem to be talking about:

New Tesla Model 3 Performance batch awaits export at Shanghai Port

Tesla still hasn’t announced the new Model 3 Performance, but it appears as though we may be close as a batch of the new electric sedans have been spotted at a port in China waiting […]

driveteslacanada.ca

It shows the 3P, which again was not even available to order yet sitting around just after start of production. In early Q2.

So 0 Q1 lost sales since nobody even had the ability to order, let alone take delivery, of that model in Q1.

PREsales of those-- didn't start until late April 2024...and official orders in June 2024. Source:

Tesla launches updated Model 3 Performance in China with pre-sale starting price of $46,360

Deliveries of the updated Model 3 Performance, the sedan's most powerful variant, in China will begin in the third quarter.

cnevpost.com

Much like the accounting thing you seem to keep posting stuff that's flatly untrue.... Why?

Stop trying to make me say things I didn't say sir. My point (not yours) is that these are inventory vehicles that were produced but not yet shipped.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I thought with $TSLA moving upwards, we would all be a little more civil here, anyways....some comedy for today: