"The End Of The Suburbs" effect on Tesla demand?

[xradr]

As self driving vehicles move from experimental to commonplace, I wonder if it will expand suburbia? The largest tradeoff with suburbia (among several) is the commute for many people. Self driving vehicles may both reduce stress and accidents. But as vehicle technology gets better, it may be used in a way that precludes or seriously reduces traffic jams by maintaining stable driving speeds (maybe 90 mph is reasonable to work if everyone is driving exactly that same speed?). Many may consider a 120 minute stress free commute one way a productive use of time. Or for some workers that can now work while driving, 2 hours each way can be productive time. come in at 10, leave at 3 pm (but work from 8 - 5)?

Ahhhh, the possibilities. Whatever the case, it's neat to see how a society adapts to changing pressures ... very Darwinian

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

As self driving vehicles move from experimental to commonplace, I wonder if it will expand suburbia? The largest tradeoff with suburbia (among several) is the commute for many people. Self driving vehicles may both reduce stress and accidents. But as vehicle technology gets better, it may be used in a way that precludes or seriously reduces traffic jams by maintaining stable driving speeds (maybe 90 mph is reasonable to work if everyone is driving exactly that same speed?). Many may consider a 120 minute stress free commute one way a productive use of time. Or for some workers that can now work while driving, 2 hours each way can be productive time. come in at 10, leave at 3 pm (but work from 8 - 5)?

Ahhhh, the possibilities. Whatever the case, it's neat to see how a society adapts to changing pressures ... very Darwinian

You'll need to be in the driver's seat and paying attention which means the driving is time-consuming.

The poi t of my earlier post (Driving is boring. Internet. The End), is that people don't want to drive (in general), they've used driving time as payment for other benefits. The Internet has changed social interaction, recreation, commerce and increased the flow of information overall has reduced the benefits of driving, particularly to younger people and to me is a primary driving force in reurbanization.

I should add that for some people, who work in information industries, the Internet has made their location irrekevant to employment and has enabled them to be much further from their workplace by eliminating commutes altogether.

The stress of a commute, or otherwise, could certainly factor into the weighting of driving time in the decision, but I would expect that changing it for tedium with a soundtrack wouldn't make that much difference.

I do think that brianman hit on something important with his note about the use of the Internet while charging. People are concerned with how much time chargi g would take, but charging, unlike driving, is an jnattended process. If it happens while you are doing something productive or necessary it takes only plug-in-out time and if you can enjoy yourself during the charging time it becomes less negative.

Back to the OP's original question, I think that in the long term the reubanization trend will not harm Tesla, because Tesla makes cars that can travel long distances and provide a superior driving experience to other cars. Reubanization primarily affects commuting and enables public transportation and while that can eliminate cars from households it will not eliminate cars and the desire to have a better car will remain. Importantly, Tesla is very focussed on reducing the cost of the core technologies in order to produce affordable cars.

 

[vfx]

A lot of good reading on this subject in this related thread.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...tion-quot-love-quot-cars-like-the-older/page2

 

[evme]

In the long term, people are going to move more and more into the suburbs. Right now cities are economic interest points for jobs and life in general. But overall you have to look at prospects of technology. Self driving cars is one way that suburbs are going to benefit, but there is another. Technology as a whole is making suburb life better and better. Before you would be far away from the closest store, now online stores like amazon will deliver it to your house. Same day shipping is now being tested in many places and now you have deliveries on Sundays. Self driving cars and electric cars will make delivering goods cheaper and easier.

Then there is the fact that you have technologies like LTE which allow you to have broadband like speeds with good latency. And robots are taking over most of the manufacturing. Then we would also be able to 3d print stuff both at factories and at homes.

Which brings the question of the future, will we even need to leave our houses? or do we put on a google glass/oculas rift kind of device with a 3d camera and get sent into a virtual office where we work?

Right now I am pretty much doing 95% of my work from home and as technology improves, that might become easier and easier.

So I do think that suburban life is going to grow in the long run.

On the topic of car sharing, I think that will be the future. For those people who don't want the inside of the car to be used by others. They can make the inside of the car be modular and work like a Tesla battery swap. So that the interior of the car is swapped out. Buying an interior is much cheaper than buying a car. This also will create a market of customizable interiors. So you can have an option of owning your own interior or sharing ones with others. But the cars themselves can be shared.

That is my 4 cents(inflation)

 

[neroden]

Peak Oil concepts would predict the end of the suburbs but EVs change that.

One word: asphalt. Think about it. (Much to my shock and surprise, asphalt prices are already rising.)

I seriously doubt the US population will shrink. Given the mild climate,

OK, I'll give you that...

relatively unpopulated areas

No water in those areas, so irrelevant.

stable economic system

No, we don't have that. Perhaps you're thinking of some other country? Sweden? Germany?

abundant natural resources

Used most of them in the 19th century. Perhaps you're thinking of Russia?

 

[JohnQ]

One word: asphalt. Think about it. (Much to my shock and surprise, asphalt prices are already rising.)

Concrete is a valid and cost comparable alternative to asphalt. If oil rises too much you just switch to concrete.

 

[neroden]

Concrete is a valid and cost comparable alternative to asphalt. If oil rises too much you just switch to concrete.

There is that. :biggrin: That does put a cap on road costs. But at the moment asphalt is cheaper than concrete and it looks like that will end, which changes the entire economics of road paving.

The nice thing about concrete is that it lasts longer.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Lots of great ideas and opinions all around. It's good to see the different perspectives.

Which brings the
question of the future, will we even need to leave our houses? or do we put on a google glass/oculas rift kind of device with a 3d camera and get sent into a virtual office where we work?

On the topic of car sharing, I think that will be the future. For those people who don't want the inside of the car to be used by others. They can make the inside of the car be modular and work like a Tesla battery swap. So that the interior of the car is swapped out. Buying an interior is much cheaper than buying a car. This also will create a market of customizable interiors. So you can have an option of owning your own interior or sharing ones with others. But the cars themselves can be shared.

That is my 4 cents(inflation)

I'm not sure I would want to live my life in that kind of isolation though, and I doubt I'm alone in thinking this. I like to walk places and see my friends in person.

The modular car interior is a fascinating idea.

Used most of them in the 19th century. Perhaps you're thinking of Russia?

The United States does have abundant natural resources, including the worlds largest known coal reserves (ugh, I know), huge amounts of shale gas (ugh again), and plenty of metal ore (though many mines were shut down because it was cheaper to mine elsewhere). There's no shortage of stuff in North America, but a lot of that stuff isn't environmentally great.

The resources I'm most concerned about using up are water, water, and water. Cities and agriculture are depleting aquifers in the west, and fracking for gas could threaten water supplies in the east. Without water, civilization cannot exist. This is another point against suburbia: the vast amounts of water wasted on maintaining grassy lawns.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Lastly - people naturally like trees. People naturally like to have outdoor spaces without crowds. I do believe most people would prefer to live in a larger house compared to a shoebox. It is all about tradeoffs. I believe the future minimizes the attractiveness of cities - working from home, autonomous EVs etc.

These are your opinions, David, not proven facts. My wife, for one, strongly prefers to live in the middle of a vibrant city in walking distance to theater, music, shops, restaurants, etc. Millions who call places like New York City, San Francisco, and Boston agree. I'm not contesting that many, possibly a majority, of people agree with your vision of the ideal place to live, but it's not universal.

 

[macpacheco]

I think as long as a Model S and Model X continue being very cheap over 10 years for a cab company, Tesla future is stellar in a dense metro land.
Let's face it, what is the max potential of Model S + Model X alone vs the whole car market ? 1%, 0.5% ?
So far I'm yet to hear Teslas don't last, that Model S battery/motor wear down quickly. What I hear is that for one million miles, a Tesla is damn cheap for a luxury ride.
The denser a metro area is, the easier it is to cover that area with superchargers.
Add the self driving car that can be summoned like a cab to the driver, and we might have the key for a post Uber, post cab world, with fully automated cars. In a subscription mode, 20 people/car with low driving demands could share a Tesla at very affordable cost. Might come out much cheaper than purchasing a US$ 30k car.
The car market today is 100 million cars / yr. 1% of that is one million car. Too much, let's go with 0.5%. Can you imagine Tesla producing half a million MS+MX per year ?
For me the mental barrier is how soon Tesla will have to resort to paid ads, at what level of production Tesla will need to do that. If they can hold off until 100k MS+MX per year, that would suggest 500k MS+MX/yr is realistic, and that even without a Gen III car Tesla might be a US$ 40+ billion sales / yr company.
Ok, enough dreaming. Cheers.
When a lot of Model S reaches 200k miles without battery or motor wear, proving low ownership costs for cab companies, demand should increase by a lot. Most cabs are driven almost 24x7, except for maintenance.
Now I start to understand the true reason for Elon's robotic charging facility. How to recharge a driverless car ! A car that can decide on its own it needs to recharge can find an empty SC stall, but where's the person to connect the charger... Visionary much !