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The (macro) economics of 276,000 Model 3s

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by SCW-Greg, Apr 4, 2016.

  1. SCW-Greg

    SCW-Greg Active Member

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    First off, congratulations to Elon and everyone at Tesla. Your amazing attention to quality, performance and safety has brought you to this point! I am stoked to be here too.

    No doubt the eyebrows have been raised, the jaws dropped, and bodies are beginning to get up from the floor - at the likes of BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Lexus, GM, Nissan, Toyota, and so on.

    Being pawned as a niche player by the likes of Bob Lutz (sorry chump, Tesla is only getting started), last year Tesla showed some direct impact on the premium market auto sales. Fast forward two years, and you're going to see the door being blown off its hinges.

    #1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (2015 Sales Comparison)

    The competitors will respond, more urgently now. Pressure is on. More often than not it seems like increasingly ill-spirited towards Tesla, from every industry. I hope we see the positive, like making a dent in smog levels at some near point in the future, etc.

    But how will 300,000 or so Teslas on the road impact other aspects of the economy?
    - New jobs at giga factories (will the competition build their own)?
    - Adopting Tesla's charging format (Superchargers) or go it alone?
    - Bolt prices dropped in order to better compete?
    - Gas prices continue to drop (to fight EVs off)?
    - Is this the height/peak oil now? Gas stations closing soon?
    - Will 3rd party EV stations mushroom?
    - Road/mileage tax implemented sooner (in lieu of gas tax)?
    - Tax credits extended or go away sooner?
    - Will Congress get behind Tesla or still in the pockets of the Dealers?
    - How will the manufacturers work with (or not) with Dealers?
    - What new lows will NADA drop to?

    What other new industries will pop up?
    What other impacts do you see these kinds of numbers influencing?
     
    • Informative x 1
  2. HookBill

    HookBill Member

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    Inquiring minds want to know.
     
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  3. SageBrush

    SageBrush Active Member

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    Hopefully politicians will be aware of the ~ 300k reservations of relatively affluent, voting citizens and decide to grow a spine when it comes time to decide whether to continue blocking Tesla expansion into the states they "represent."
     
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  4. SCW-Greg

    SCW-Greg Active Member

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    Just another call out to the competitors. I don't think the sales forecast comparisons are accurate (global vs stateside), or that the numbers are way too conservative (as Tesla isn't done taking reservations yet), but good read...

    Tesla Motors' Model 3 Should Terrify These 3 Automakers
     
    • Informative x 1
  5. SageBrush

    SageBrush Active Member

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    That article has the right idea, but does not highlight the reason why a small company can cause much larger ones such angst: established companies have fixed costs that are covered by the first ... oh ... 90-95% of product sold. In effect, all their profit is from the last 5-10% of sales. In that light, Tesla is a monster threat to every other car company out there.

    Incidentally, this is also the reason why the power utilities have mobilized politically so rabidly against PV. One - two percent of their customers who switch to PV is a huge haircut of their profits. It really has very little to do with "infrastructure costs."
     
    • Informative x 2
  6. Legolas

    Legolas New Member

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  7. JPP

    JPP Active Member

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  8. SageBrush

    SageBrush Active Member

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  9. nwdiver

    nwdiver Active Member

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    Gas prices really can't go much lower... they're already at unsustainable levels...
     
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  10. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Active Member

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    I remember going for a run after getting my MS. The cars drove by and I could smell them. I thought to myself, there is a better way but it just costs too much.

    Well, if we were to hire people to run local, state and federal entities that were focused on properly managing our government, those managers would come to the same conclusion that I came to on my run but with larger scale and without (as much of) the cost constraint. Regretfully, we the people do not hire on the basis of competence but by the ole high school popularity contest.

    Elon is on the right path. Stop trying to convince people and just show them by doing. Sooner or later they will figure it out.
     
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