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The reason Tesla will overtake BMW

raptor5244

Active Member
May 10, 2019
1,194
878
Florida
Unfortunately BMW and the rest of the legacy OEMs have massive investments in factories that make ICE vehicles which are actually a liability at this point because transitioning them to efficiently make EVs will cost more than just building new factories. Their business model that uses dealers to sell cars to the public is also a liability because the only thing the dealers make money on now is service so they will resist the transition. Even GM had many dealers call and say “ come and get your sign - we’re done “ when informed that Cadillac would be going full EV. Then, of course, there is the problem of Tesla’s massive lead in engineering - Tesla open sourcing their patents scared them more than anything because they knew then that Tesla would be running while they were walking.
I have been trying to find an investment in charging infrastructure and can’t find any with a business model that can generate a profit now or in the future. This makes the supercharger network a moat around Tesla that won’t be going away any time soon.
Lastly anyone who owned a McLaren F1 is a car guy which makes Tesla the only major OEM to have one at the helm. The technology changes but selling cars has and always will be about exciting people’s emotions and right now Tesla is the object of desire among young people - the customers who will be buying cars for the next 50 years.

One genuine concern for dealers, however, is the fact that EVs don’t require oil changes, transmission repairs and other service owners of ICE vehicles routinely bear — and that account for 50% of dealers’ gross profits. A 2019 report from AlixPartners estimates that dealers could see $1,300 less revenue in service and parts over the life of each EV they sell.
 
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dfwatt

Active Member
Sep 24, 2018
3,199
5,216
FL

One genuine concern for dealers, however, is the fact that EVs don’t require oil changes, transmission repairs and other service owners of ICE vehicles routinely bear — and that account for 50% of dealers’ gross profits. A 2019 report from AlixPartners estimates that dealers could see $1,300 less revenue in service and parts over the life of each EV they sell.
The only problem with that is that Alex Wakefield is the same marketing and financial genius who predicted Tesla would fail within a year or two of their 2012 release of the Model S and has long regarded electric vehicles has an interesting distraction. He doesn't understand much about the disruption of the industry and is applying old models that's simply don't work anymore. As for dealer seeing $1,300 less in Revenue over the life of a Eevee compared to ICE it's probably closer to $1,300 a year less. He also appears to believe that climate change is a hoax or at least badly overhyped. So I wouldn't quote him too enthusiastically as much of a reference on anyting, except perhaps as just another case example of how the so-called experts really didn't know what they were talking about. And still don't.
 
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raptor5244

Active Member
May 10, 2019
1,194
878
Florida
The only problem with that is that Alex Wakefield is the same marketing and financial genius who predicted Tesla would fail within a year or two of their 2012 release of the Model S and has long regarded electric vehicles has an interesting distraction. He doesn't understand much about the disruption of the industry and is applying old models that's simply don't work anymore. As for dealer seeing $1,300 less in Revenue over the life of a Eevee compared to ICE it's probably closer to $1,300 a year less. He also appears to believe that climate change is a hoax or at least badly overhyped. So I wouldn't quote him too enthusiastically as much of a reference on anyting, except perhaps as just another case example of how the so-called experts really didn't know what they were talking about. And still don't.
Yep, it was just interesting to see the change of opinion. And yes, $1300 over the life of the vehicle, not sure what he is smoking. It was also interesting to hear some dealers say they are not worried about service revenue since EVs still need brakes, tires, alignments. Who is taking their car to the dealer for these items unless they want to pay double? They will need to change their ways big time. I would rather take my car to Costco for tires and brake pads on an EV pretty much last the life of car with regen braking. It is gonna get interesting for sure...
 
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techlogik

Member
Mar 22, 2021
346
199
FL
Had (and heavily modified) an E82 135i for over 10 years. Loved driving that car, but the maintenance, which I did myself, was just the death of me. By 80K, I'd done the water pump, multiple sets of injectors, multiple valve cover gaskets, spark plugs, rotors and pads, and all the other myriad crap that wears out on an ICE car. When you've done the same job 3x and you're getting on 60, there just seem to be a whole lot better ways to spend weekends and vacations. It never really shifted that well either, despite adding stiffer trans mounts.

Happy with the 3 and never going back to an ICE car either...
I don't think this is a good comparison. You are describing a company with millions and millions of cars on the road. Yes, they require maintenance and that adds up.

But, we don't know yet what kind of long term higher mileage issues Tesla's will have. There isn't enough of them on the road.

I will take oil changes all day over a $15-20k battery swap in 8yrs?!?!?! Most of the mechanical things you list with BMW in particular have a large base to draw upon and known issues, like a water pump, or certain things are known quantities. It doesn't cost $15k to replace anything but the engine in one of those cars, and if out of warranty, well, then you have an issues. But if past 8yrs/120k, Tesla isn't going to foot that bill...we haven't seen if/what will happen. Most people are selling them way before due to the unknowns. One of the top reasons people won't buy an electric car are 1) too expensive...yes, to say the least; 2) battery/charging....it goes on and on.

Expensive means maintenance...and the used market is going to be one to watch, which makes me wonder about these absurd resale values and asking prices of 2018-2019 Model 3 lately, more than they paid for it, and the warranty is about to run out...then what? Only battery is covered and then, it can run way down to 70% or initial capacity before being called a failure...

Other maintenance, or trips to the gas station, oil changes, etc...yes, do add up, but cars like BMW still have a 3yr/36k full maint. package included in the new car price.

Only time will tell, and we need a larger dataset to show/prove whether these cars are going to have longer term and less expensive issues compared to ICE. Makes sense that mostly they will be less espensive...but some of the items that can go kaboom and fail...are massive costs to deal with...out of range for an average consumer a $15k battery or motor for example out of warranty.
 

electricar

Member
Jul 31, 2018
261
285
NotCal
I have seen lots of people with out of warranty German cars spend $5-10K/year to keep them on the road and not whine about it. That is also out of the range of the average consumer. In the early days replacing the battery in a Prius cost 2 to 3 times as much as it does now. As Pure EVs proliferate and recycling like that done by Redwood Materials becomes more available replacement battery prices will come down, but you’re correct that there is not a big enough data set - time will tell.
 
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Dolemite

is my name
Sep 19, 2019
1,361
1,657
Seattle, WA
$15-20k battery swap in 8yrs?!?!?!
Last I heard, it was $15K to swap the Model 3 battery from my former SC... I'm hoping that price comes down by the time it's relevant, and that I could bring it down further by taking apart & reassembling the entire interior myself & saving some on labor.

But yes, this is the part that worries me... My E46 was 17 years old when I sold it, even though I had to spend a lot of time under it every year to keep it from leaking like a sieve. When I sold it, it was still perfect... mostly. I hope the Model 3 can deliver similar results & the gas savings won't be canceled out in the end. If we're lucky it'll end up being similar to all modern cars that can easily last WAY past their OEM warranty with some basic maintenance.
 
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electricar

Member
Jul 31, 2018
261
285
NotCal
Speaking of leaking like a sieve - where I live all the fluids that ICE cars leak goes straight into the water table. Since at some point I surrendered to “ topping off “ instead of repairing my Teutonic wonders, I alone have added a special tang to the drinking water.
 
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raptor5244

Active Member
May 10, 2019
1,194
878
Florida
Last I heard, it was $15K to swap the Model 3 battery from my former SC... I'm hoping that price comes down by the time it's relevant, and that I could bring it down further by taking apart & reassembling the entire interior myself & saving some on labor.

But yes, this is the part that worries me... My E46 was 17 years old when I sold it, even though I had to spend a lot of time under it every year to keep it from leaking like a sieve. When I sold it, it was still perfect... mostly. I hope the Model 3 can deliver similar results & the gas savings won't be canceled out in the end. If we're lucky it'll end up being similar to all modern cars that can easily last WAY past their OEM warranty with some basic maintenance.
Are we sure this cost is accurate? That is like 50% of the cost of my SR+...
 

Dolemite

is my name
Sep 19, 2019
1,361
1,657
Seattle, WA
Are we sure this cost is accurate? That is like 50% of the cost of my SR+...
Well I went in one day and had one SC guy tell me it was $15K. I went in another day several months later and was talking to the girl at the counter, and yet another SC guy overheard me talking about it and he also said $15K, and that he’d priced one out the day before. So pretty sure…

Do I have an unusually friendly SC or something? I can go in there any time I want and talk to techs etc. Half the stuff I know I’ve learned from them.
 
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