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I may try a lease instead. one because in that amount of time the next one out will be way better. and its cheaper. I just need to accurately guess my mileage. but I never really cared for the idea of a lease.
May be out of the question though since I know at 15K miles that's about 62 miles a day average. I will blow 15 in the first 6 months prob. lol
I've never understood why someone would lease. I've done the math on this many times before to try to justify a lease just to get a lower monthly payment, but it's always come out better to buy. I'd love to hear someone that's come out ahead leasing.
Example: For the 70D spec'd out the way I want it, it's $84,450 (after doc and destination fee). Lease requires $6683 due at signing. So let's say I put that same amount up front for the purchase. Now I'm down to $77,767 that I need to finance. If I get a loan for 72 months at 3%, my payments are $1182/mo. After 36 months, I still owe $40,630. I've paid $45,552. Let's say I put 15k miles per year on it (which I'm not limited to, but to keep it in line with the lease). I turn around and sell the car at that point private party for $50k (which seems reasonable after looking at other Model S private party sales). That's almost $10k back. Oh, and add the $7500 tax rebate from that first year. $17k back in pocket.
On the lease, I paid a total of $35568, and I have to give the car back. Total payments were $5k less that buying, but no cash back on a sale, and no tax rebate.
You come out $12k ahead on the purchase. If you actually keep the car to the end of 6 years and sold it, you'd probably still get $30k (just a guess, since it's new territory). If you can do the payments, get a 3-4 year loan and get even lower interest rates.
Now that said, I'm basing this on both history of ICE cars and sales I found of Teslas via private party that are 3 years old. The one unknown is if in the next 3 years a major advancement and lower price for battery tech comes along with the giga factory. If the jump is big enough and/or the price goes down enough, it could make the current Model S worth next to nothing, much like a 3 year old smartphone or laptop, with the one plus being that the current cars have lifetime supercharger access.
I guess you have to decide if you will stay under the mileage limit and if you want to deal with trying to sell it later. Otherwise, buying/selling will almost always come out ahead of leasing.
