Thst is not correct. HFCVs are cheaper to fuel with NG than NGVs, in the same way it's cheaper to fuel a n NG-based EV than an NGV. The key is that cost of the technology is currently prohibitive,
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Toyota and Hydrogen
- Thread starter malcolm
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Thst is not correct. HFCVs are cheaper to fuel with NG than NGVs, in the same way it's cheaper to fuel a n NG-based EV than an NGV. The key is that cost of the technology is currently prohibitive,
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Are you sure that's true? Right now CNG prices are $2.09/GGE and HFCVs are projected to cost about the same as gasoline to refuel (even factoring in the extra efficiency), while CNG already is cheaper than gasoline. So it seems it'll be cheaper to fuel a NGV vehicle (esp. if they make a hybrid version).
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/prices.html
RobStark
Well-Known Member
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...ompetitive-with-electrics-by-2030-toyota-says
Soichiro Okudaira, chief officer of Toyota's R&D group, told Automotive News Europe that lower production costs will make fuel-cell vehicles competitive with electric cars
2030? Soichiro evidently has a crystal ball to rather accurately predict not only the development Toyota FCEV but also that of Tesla BEV and all electrics.
Toyota hopes to bring out what looks like a compact sedan in 2015 for $99,000 and hopes the powertrain cost $49,000.
We shall what kind of value proposition Toyota makes.
They say 300 miles of range and 3 minute fillups. They mention these numbers because they are good.
No word on interior volume or acceleration numbers. Probably because those are not very good.
My guess is that they will be asking consumers to pay $99k for a Hydrogen Prius-type car while you can get a rather nicely equipped 85kw Model S.
I also think they will be selling the FCEV at a loss in order to create a hydrogen FCEV market.
Toyota has $145B cash and cash equivalents on hand so they can afford to do that.
Where does that projection you mention come from? It doesn't make any sense to me. Reformation and compression aren't especially expensive.
Peter_M
Member
What I don't understand is why. Why would Toyota, Honda and others still be pursuing this technology when it's so clear that there's no money to be made and that hydrogen vehicles aren't better than gas cars or EVs in even one of the main factors (range, cost, safety, performance, deployability, environment)? I can sort of understand Ballard Power sticking with it since fuel cells are their core business so they have to either make it work or shut down, but why would the car makers keep at it? Is there some political or economic factor I'm missing? Or are they just hoping for some kind of technology miracle?
ChadS
Last tank of gas: March 2009
They get 9 ZEV credits for producing a hydrogen car. Whereas they can only get a max of 7 for EVs if they produce a 300-mile range car AND have battery swapping - with the cars they are building now, they only get 3 credits. With hydrogen they just have to build the cars, and have the state of CA pay immense amounts of money to install hydrogen stations. That last "clean car" suite of bills that CA passed in September included lots of money for hydrogen stations thanks to persistent lobbyists - they same way that hydrogen cars got 9 credits. (I assume they will only be sold in CA; can't fuel them anywhere else).
For the compliance car manufacturers, this is really attractive. They are losing money for each car; by building hydrogen cars instead of EVs, they can lose 3x as much money per car and still come out even financially (actually better if they figure they can fill in the missing cars with gas cars) - and it doesn't honk off their dealers that don't want to take the time to explain charging to new customers.
They aren't trying to make the world a better place or even produce the best cars they can; they are trying to lose as little money as possible while continuing to sell gas cars. Given the CARB credit structure, hydrogen cars look attractive for that purpose. Plus hydrogen has always been further out than EVs, which meant they could push out sales of anything a long time as long as they kept saying hydrogen was close. In fact for many years, they got credits just for hydrogen research. This changed around 2008 or 2009; Nissan and BMW announced their electric car programs the next month. (Rather than just do compliance cars, they decided to try to make lemonade and make a business out of it. They are still conquest cars though, not meant to appeal to their existing customers). The Volt and Model S were already planned; they were the only cars that were not a result of this credit change (well, the Mitsubishi i-MiEV was around too; but only for Japan - it coming to the US was in response to the others announcing their EV programs).
For the compliance car manufacturers, this is really attractive. They are losing money for each car; by building hydrogen cars instead of EVs, they can lose 3x as much money per car and still come out even financially (actually better if they figure they can fill in the missing cars with gas cars) - and it doesn't honk off their dealers that don't want to take the time to explain charging to new customers.
They aren't trying to make the world a better place or even produce the best cars they can; they are trying to lose as little money as possible while continuing to sell gas cars. Given the CARB credit structure, hydrogen cars look attractive for that purpose. Plus hydrogen has always been further out than EVs, which meant they could push out sales of anything a long time as long as they kept saying hydrogen was close. In fact for many years, they got credits just for hydrogen research. This changed around 2008 or 2009; Nissan and BMW announced their electric car programs the next month. (Rather than just do compliance cars, they decided to try to make lemonade and make a business out of it. They are still conquest cars though, not meant to appeal to their existing customers). The Volt and Model S were already planned; they were the only cars that were not a result of this credit change (well, the Mitsubishi i-MiEV was around too; but only for Japan - it coming to the US was in response to the others announcing their EV programs).
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I'm quoting Toyota on this (that it'll roughly cost the same as gas).
"In the long term, Toyota believes that "The cost of hydrogen should be equal to or less than gas.""
http://green.autoblog.com/2013/12/11/2015-toyota-fuel-cell-hydrogen-vehicle-prototype-review/
The projected by the DOE for cost of hydrogen from natural gas (the cheapest method) is $4/gge when made in volume.
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/accomplishments.pdf
In 2012 (when NG prices were at their all term low) they predicted $3.41/gge in the future ($4.2/gge now).
http://hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/12024_h2_production_cost_natural_gas.pdf
Distributed electrolysis hydrogen is estimated at $4.30 - $7.10 /gge.
Distributed ethanol based hydrogen is estimated at $4.50 - $8.20 /gge.
http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/12002_h2_prod_status_cost_plots.pdf
Real world, it obviously costs a whole lot more, right now it costs $12-13/kg at Emeryville (a mix of natural gas and solar electrolysis):
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/24/automobiles/fuel-cells-at-center-stage.html?_r=0
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
I live within a few miles of Toyota and Honda North American Headquarters.
I have asked this exact questions to mid-level Toyota managers I see in corporate golf shirts or suits with Toyota employee badges I see around town at lunch places every so often.
They didn't or don't believe BEVs will get recharging times and battery pack long term durability levels to where most consumers will find acceptable.
From my POV, at this point major auto companies have spent billions and decades on this.
Closing up shop is to admit multi-billion dollar and multi-decade failure.
And you know what losing face and saving face means in Japanese culture.
So they march on hoping a technological miracle saves the program "by 2030."
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
A lot of people still can't get their head around home charging. They think a car can't be successful if it can't refill in under 5 minutes so they think BEV is an instant dead end.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The common refrain is that apartment renters, condo owners, and some homeowners with street only parking don't have a safe accessible place to recharge. And this may be 50% of potential customers.
As if the there is not an electric grid ready to be accessed for apartment chargers.
Evidently, some people believe that a car in public parking is far more likely to be vandalized if it s charging than if it is not charging.
It is pretty crazy how attached people are to their habits. What is so great about taking time out of your day once a week to pull into a gas station (which has a large amount of volatile gas, that could certainly kill you in an explosion or fire), getting out of the car whether it is 110 degrees or -5, and paying $4 a gallon to pollute both your local area and the world at large?
Or you could add thirty seconds to plug the car in when you get home and thirty seconds to unplug it when you leave. Not to mention being able to program it to preheat or precool the cabin before you even go to the garage to get in it. Starting every day with a full charge sounds glorious.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Toyota's Hydrogen-Powered Race Car Goes Up in Flames During a Testing Session
Toyota's plans to race a hydrogen-powered Corolla have suffered a setback after a hydrogen leak caused the car to catch fire during a testing session
www.autoevolution.com
Unfortunately, the car experienced a fuel leak during a testing session on March 8, causing a major fire. Nobody was hurt, but the Corolla was unrecoverable and won't make it to the competition's start. Toyota tried to keep this event under the radar, but as people noticed the car was not signed up for the series start on March 18, it had to offer explanations. This happened one full week after the incident.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Toyota's Hydrogen-Powered Race Car Goes Up in Flames During a Testing Session
Toyota's plans to race a hydrogen-powered Corolla have suffered a setback after a hydrogen leak caused the car to catch fire during a testing session
Unfortunately, the car experienced a fuel leak during a testing session on March 8, causing a major fire. Nobody was hurt, but the Corolla was unrecoverable and won't make it to the competition's start. Toyota tried to keep this event under the radar, but as people noticed the car was not signed up for the series start on March 18, it had to offer explanations. This happened one full week after the incident.
Wonder how long before all the H2 stations in CA look like all the CNG stations in NM...
