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Tesla just closed down 2.8% today, on news of continuous QC and safety issues (including a new lawsuit), but more specifically on the news of one of the new Plaid bursting in flame while driving. That sucks for the driver of course, although he is safe and uninjured, but it really sucks for Tesla’s image, and thus the big stock drop. Its $130k luxury market car, destined to be sold in the few thousands to showcase the brand, spontaneously combusting on its new owner is $20B bad, says the market.

I continue to complain that QC is a regrettable side concern for Tesla and continue to squarely lay the blame on the CEO, whose ego need for attention far outweighs his concern for the pesky details.
But the lawsuit over a self driving death and the Plaid incident got me thinking about the unique challenge that Tesla finds itself by choice having to address, first is the manufacturing of EVs which is proving to be an extremely complicated endeavor judging by the competition's difficulties catching up to Tesla and, second, deciding that autonomous driving systems are also the future of automobiles.

After all, Musk could have "just" built EVs and dominate the market for another decade. That would have been quite an achievement on its own. But he also decided to develop an autonomous driving system, something that far fewer drivers were asking for and which certainly has no impact on the health of our planet. The wrapper was, autonomous systems save lives and give commuters the ability to play video games while their cars takes them to work and back. I'm sure there's a bigger business model behind the story to justify the billions already spent by all to develop the perfect chauffeur.
What is clear though, is that Tesla’s name is attached to both EVs and autonomous driving systems and a failure of either directly impacts its market value. It's interesting to see that the EV competition is more muted about their autonomous driving plans, as if they've decided to take one big problem at a time, first EV then autonomous driving.
 
Interesting news I read today about the cost of insuring EVs in general and Tesla vehicles in particular.
The backdrop to this news are tied to my concerns with the technologically impressive, production efficient and cost saving, single cast front and rear ends now available on the new Tesla models. For all the engineering praise and leader adulation, I ask a simple question:
What happens when a new Tesla gets in a minor fender bender with another vehicle and damages the cast even slightly ?
Because we know this will happen often enough, right? I'm not talking about YouTube videos of totalled Teslas but rather, the mundane "oops! Sorry, I didn't see the stop sign", a 15-20 mph kind of accident.
Well, the news today answers that question partly, by confirming that insurance companies are adding 30 to 100% premiums on EVs due to their significantly higher repair costs. That $300 a year gas savings? Well absorbed by your insurance premium.
Tesla vehicles add a twist to this depressing news because so few garages are approved for repairs of Tesla vehicles. So not only will the insurance premium be wildly higher than that of an ICE vehicle, but it will likely take several weeks to get your car repaired. Worst yet? Damage to the famous casted front and rear ends will likely categorize your car as totalled by your insurer, due to the complexity of repairing it. This may explain why Tesla has been rumored to get into the vehicle insurance business?
Maybe there was a good reason after all for having so many replaceable parts in a car? Dunno.
 
Get ready for the first visible and ferocious push back from the newer crop of Tesla owners who are finding that the FSD they paid for is just not enough to get them the new FSD that just came out, $1500 short, as a matter of fact. I don't know who makes those decisions at Tesla but that was really arrogant, so I suspect Musk must have. What's 1500 buck anyway?
Worse yet though, is the $199 monthly fee (or $10k up front) being asked for getting access to the FSD app. I can't wait to watch all the fan boyz YouTube channel digesting that info for us all commoners.
My prediction? A flop. Like at most 10% of Tesla owners will buy FSD outright or monthly. It's good money, but nothing compared to its dev cost. This may be Musk's biggest humiliation yet, something that he really believes in, but very few to care for it. Expect the monthly charge to drop to $99 within a year.
I'm Tesla long and still have a few years ahead if me, so I'm cool!
 
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I'll preface this with I own a Tesla, and I've been a share holder since 2016. I own NO automotive company stocks directly, all of my direct investments are in funds of various types, so I have no motivation to "spread FUD" or otherwise pan Tesla over any other EV company. So, maybe now the faithful will scroll by.

Musk is an engineer

He really isn't. Like, fundamentally, nothing he's done is how an engineer would behave, and I think this last year's behavior really drives that point home. What he can do is read how things work, which I promise you everyone can do. He didn't design these cars, he isn't writing the software (thankfully), and he obviously doesn't understand what the autonomy group is doing so we get what are effectively wild guesses.

He is an engineer like the IFLS site is about "science".

doing a fantastic job

The number of violations they've received makes me very much doubt there's a fantastic job at hand. I do enjoy my Model 3, but it was built by humans in the tent (thankfully). Tesla has also been cited time after time for going ahead with unpermitted work, beginning production before inspections have been completed, very high wastage in vehicle as well as battery manufacturing. And then you have the injuries.

Oh, and he only just realized "manufacturing is hard".

holding grudges against the marketing people

Not just marketing and PR, but also journalists, politicians, customers, shareholders, experts attempting to rescue children ...it's really alarming the number of people Elon starts feuds with. He refused an early investor's vehicle delivery and barred him from owning a Tesla because they DARED tell Elon that there was a problem with customer service back in 2012. There were signs.

good PR and Marketing teams

Just Tweet the CEO. Why hire experts that will review things before Tweeting them, when your CEO is legally required to have some of his tweets monitored by legal...and refuses. Right?

I think Musk showed some great battery tech at Battery Day

He showed the same amount of battery tech on battery day as he did self driving tech on autonomy. That is to say, none. None of the major advancements they tried to hype on battery day are actually done, or working. Worryingly, he said they already ordered the manufacturing equipment, and now we hear word of delays.

IMO, Tesla would be so much better off without Elon at the CEO position. Give him a fun job playing around in skunkworks, stop giving him stock because he's already told us he's going to dump it and put it into SpaceX, and let's start the process of Tesla growing up and meeting customers' needs for service.
 
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Get ready for the first visible and ferocious push back from the newer crop of Tesla owners who are finding that the FSD they paid for is just not enough to get them the new FSD that just came out, $1500 short, as a matter of fact. I don't know who makes those decisions at Tesla but that was really arrogant, so I suspect Musk must have. What's 1500 buck anyway?
Worse yet though, is the $199 monthly fee (or $10k up front) being asked for getting access to the FSD app. I can't wait to watch all the fan boyz YouTube channel digesting that info for us all commoners.
My prediction? A flop. Like at most 10% of Tesla owners will buy FSD outright or monthly. It's good money, but nothing compared to its dev cost. This may be Musk's biggest humiliation yet, something that he really believes in, but very few to care for it. Expect the monthly charge to drop to $99 within a year.
I'm Tesla long and still have a few years ahead if me, so I'm cool!
Well, looks like we didn't have to wait very long for price reductions on FSD, although I expect this is just the beginning of the pricing reversal. Look for the now $1000 to be waved, or rather removed altogether. Also, watch for steep discounts on the $10k or the ludicrous $199/month app fee around key dates like quarterly earnings/Christmas/Black Friday/ Musk's b-day or whatever.
 
I'll preface this with I own a Tesla, and I've been a share holder since 2016. I own NO automotive company stocks directly, all of my direct investments are in funds of various types, so I have no motivation to "spread FUD" or otherwise pan Tesla over any other EV company. So, maybe now the faithful will scroll by.



He really isn't. Like, fundamentally, nothing he's done is how an engineer would behave, and I think this last year's behavior really drives that point home. What he can do is read how things work, which I promise you everyone can do. He didn't design these cars, he isn't writing the software (thankfully), and he obviously doesn't understand what the autonomy group is doing so we get what are effectively wild guesses.

He is an engineer like the IFLS site is about "science".



The number of violations they've received makes me very much doubt there's a fantastic job at hand. I do enjoy my Model 3, but it was built by humans in the tent (thankfully). Tesla has also been cited time after time for going ahead with unpermitted work, beginning production before inspections have been completed, very high wastage in vehicle as well as battery manufacturing. And then you have the injuries.

Oh, and he only just realized "manufacturing is hard".



Not just marketing and PR, but also journalists, politicians, customers, shareholders, experts attempting to rescue children ...it's really alarming the number of people Elon starts feuds with. He refused an early investor's vehicle delivery and barred him from owning a Tesla because they DARED tell Elon that there was a problem with customer service back in 2012. There were signs.



Just Tweet the CEO. Why hire experts that will review things before Tweeting them, when your CEO is legally required to have some of his tweets monitored by legal...and refuses. Right?



He showed the same amount of battery tech on battery day as he did self driving tech on autonomy. That is to say, none. None of the major advancements they tried to hype on battery day are actually done, or working. Worryingly, he said they already ordered the manufacturing equipment, and now we hear word of delays.

IMO, Tesla would be so much better off without Elon at the CEO position. Give him a fun job playing around in skunkworks, stop giving him stock because he's already told us he's going to dump it and put it into SpaceX, and let's start the process of Tesla growing up and meeting customers' needs for service.
Wow! 1300 positives despite all that Musk negativity? Who says TMC is a fan boiz club!?!
 
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Wow! 1300 positives despite all that Musk negativity? Who says TMC is a fan boiz club!?!
Onto another subject that I've addressed before but that is now taking on a more dire urgency in light of the devastating Northern California fires that are destroying entire towns...
Traditionally, power is delivered from a power source through lines and eventually to homes. While the power lines are sometimes the cause of destructive fires (and the reason why I advocate for underground lines, like they have been doing in Europe for well over 30 years), when they do burn a town, the cost of replacement in on the town or the utility company and the repair cost sometimes spread among users on their monthly bill.
What happens when a fire runs through a home equipped with Tesla’s energy autonomous solution, the solar panels or solar roof with Powerwall attached? While property insurance will probably cover it for a premium, it is never factored in the true cost of ownership when being promoted.
But, honestly, I didn't start this threat to discuss true cost of ownership, I just used that to lead to my real issue...
What happens when an upscale neighborhood of Powerwalls clad homes goes up in flame? We have seen on countless YouTube videos how difficult it is for fire units to put out EV fires, particularly the huge quantity of water necessary to put them out for good. The same reaction will happen to Powerwalls! We're talking about dozens of incredibly difficult fires to put out or let burn themselves out for many more hours than traditional fires.
This certainly isn't a Tesla only issue but, in the same way we want to hold oil companies responsible for a long list of ills, there will soon come a day when Tesla and others will be held to account for putting out products for which protective measures haven't fully been accounted for. There's an alarming need for government and its analytical and standards bodies to review with manufacturers the risks and safety procedures to be taken in our new world of omnipresent batteries. This ought to include the construction industries, fire department training and remedial solutions, etc. I would hate to see a Powerwall explode and cause a debilitating fire in a neighborhood!...
 
"Broken promises and unmet expectations"... if you read a lot, like I do, you've probably come across that label describing Tesla quite a bit lately. It seems to resonate with the media and I suspect a paid agency is responsible for getting these words used again and again whenever Tesla is mentioned. Is it fair in war? I'm not a fan, but it certainly hits hard.
I've spent a fair amount of time complaining and warning that Tesla is built on Musk's image. It's unpolished and ego driven, never showing humility. Breaking conventions is so cool, providing a well finished product is so boring. Look at that rad pick-up truck! Well, we should have it to you one of these days..
Examples of Tesla broken promises and unmet expectations are so numerous that even some of the EV and Tesla groupies on YouTube are starting to reframe their allegiance to the all mighty, as in, more EV, less Tesla. Every day seems to bring out a new company policy which can complement or contradict yesterday's but, hey, this is Tesla/Musk talking to you. How' bout Doge, duuuudes!!
I see some big shorts are giving up on shorting, while others are more convinced than ever that Tesla is about to falter and find its valuation within its automobile competition. Of course others-mostly on this board- are taking Tsla to the moon 2,3,4k by next week!... very difficult to assess where Tesla's stock price will be at the end of this year, next year or the year after, but definitely between these 2 extremes.
 
Well, I have some great news to report. Musk seems to finally realize that marketing has a purpose in retail business. I saw the YouTube video promoting Tesla glass and have to say, it's fantastic! Slick, detailed, down to earth, pragmatic. Great work. Now we need other such videos to explain and promote other parts of the cars that makes them so special.
On a side note, I have Tsla breaking 800 between 9/28 and 11/17, with the additional positive bump from the 10/20 Q3 announcement. I am hoping for 900 by year end.
 
Get ready for the first visible and ferocious push back from the newer crop of Tesla owners who are finding that the FSD they paid for is just not enough to get them the new FSD that just came out, $1500 short, as a matter of fact. I don't know who makes those decisions at Tesla but that was really arrogant, so I suspect Musk must have. What's 1500 buck anyway?
Worse yet though, is the $199 monthly fee (or $10k up front) being asked for getting access to the FSD app. I can't wait to watch all the fan boyz YouTube channel digesting that info for us all commoners.
My prediction? A flop. Like at most 10% of Tesla owners will buy FSD outright or monthly. It's good money, but nothing compared to its dev cost. This may be Musk's biggest humiliation yet, something that he really believes in, but very few to care for it. Expect the monthly charge to drop to $99 within a year.
I'm Tesla long and still have a few years ahead if me, so I'm cool!

You can't make this up, it's so predictable. I'm just glad Tesla doesn't depend on FSD to make its quarterly earnings look good enough for the stock price to climb. But seriously, I couldn't read through the dreadful details of why so few people care to own FSD; bottom line is, no one cares to own FSD.
But why? It's soooo cool! Sorry to burst fanboyzs bubble, but there's nothing cool about a $199/month expense for a system to drive you to your destination under your watchful eye. I have a 🤯 solution... Why doesn't Tesla pay owners $199/month to validate their FSD technology? You'd get a 90% buy in, I promise. Once again, Musk and his fan club are operating in an echo chamber, entirely unaware of real customer expectations. So let me assist; no one cares to oversee a self driving system and have to pay for doing it. Taking it a step further, few people care to oversee a self driving system, even for free! Either the system is absolutely fool proof without oversight (as in FSD...), in which case we can all get used to using it from time to time for boring drives and you can add a couple thousand dollars to the purchase price, or it isn't FSD and you will have to pay me to test it for you.
A lot of research and money has gone into the system. It probably is the best out there and there's huge opportunities to monetize its user data (ask Google about Maps), but it is so arrogant of Musk to think that non fanboyz customers would waste their time and money on a system they never asked for in the first place. Note, moat people do like driving.
 
Well, I have some great news to report. Musk seems to finally realize that marketing has a purpose in retail business. I saw the YouTube video promoting Tesla glass and have to say, it's fantastic! Slick, detailed, down to earth, pragmatic. Great work. Now we need other such videos to explain and promote other parts of the cars that makes them so special.
On a side note, I have Tsla breaking 800 between 9/28 and 11/17, with the additional positive bump from the 10/20 Q3 announcement. I am hoping for 900 by year end.
Pat on the back, 806 on 10/06. I really would like to see an 850 in November...
 
Just read this thread today for first time. So hind sight is 20/20.

I own a 2020 X. Right now, I consider Tesla the best ELECTRIC car, but far from the best CAR. And thats sad given the $100k price. They could fix the things the its missing to be the best CAR, but don't seem to care.

What things? Thing that have Not Invented Here Syndrom. Where the F are my decent Blind Spot Warnings? How about rain sensing wipers that work or Auto Highbeams that also work? (auto highs get me more flashes from other drivers so I don't use them as they are rude) Are we ever going to get these functions to be Non-Beta? How about some sound insulation so the noise level matches or is lower than the $20k Nissan rental car I have right now.

Service is a problem. As an owner, I'm scared poopless I'm going to hit a deer. The fact that Tesla won't sell parts to my local bodyshop (who does Excellent work!) means it has to go 3.5 hours to the nearest approved Tesla shop.
Pain in the Abs and not user friendly.

And don't get me started on software update Bugs that can get added. PARK ASSIST UNAvailable didn't come with my car but was added with a firmware upgrade. Thanks, now I get random beeps telling me at 60 mph it can't help me park. Ota updates are a 2 way street. Can quickly fix bug but can also Add them to existing fleet. Need to jump on the bugs faster than the 3 months it looks like took to fix Park Assist one. They can also remove features as see fit like showing me the numbers on the energy gauge. Now it is just a unitless circle. Why remove the numbers?

How about doing a model refresh that doesn't take 11 months? Would think the most valuable car company could cut off the top of the steering wheel, re-do the dash, and remove the outside chrome in less than a year. Still can't believe the stock market doesn't care the S/X line was down for 6 months and the most expensive car they sell ( the X) is still MIA from Dec 24th line shutdown. Market only sees 3/y numbers apparently. Still waiting for word on my Jan ordered X that ordered before bought the 2020 one used in May because couldn't wait.( They say Dec, but do I trust them?)

Seems like too much engineering going to FSD to finish the Beta things listed above. My used X has FSD, so I get something, but really want the other things listed above fixed more than FSD. It is so apparent the current FSD system will only be Level 2 and never be able to drive across country to pick me up as sales pitch was back in 2016(for 2017 delivery). I like driving and never asked for my car to take me everywhere. Have to monitor it everywhere, so a good Adaptive Cruise and lane center from other manufacturers does about the same on the interstate. FSD auto lane change needs to be watched like a hawk as it will cut people off when it wants to move over so not relaxing to use. Used X we got with about $0 value on the FSD, so not out anything there.

On to things that don't affect My owner experience, Cyber is pushed to 2023. 4680 cells are behind as we were sold them over a year ago at 2020 Battery Day but are MIA. Berlin and Austin not going to start until 2022.

On a plus, they are going to sell close to 1million 3/y this year, so 50% growth yoy. All that matters to the stock? And the competitions
cars are bursting into flames and on sales hold. ( I'm looking at you Chevy Bolt).

So what makes Tesla the best ELECTRIC car? 2 things. 371 mile range (even if bull and really like 220 to 325 depending on weather, speed etc) is the best out there. And the Super Charger Network. Open that up and a Mach E looks even better...
 
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What is the Supercharger Network? It's like GM having GM only gas stations... How long do you think before government steps in and tells Musk that his Supercharger Network must accommodate all EVs... It's already doing it in Europe. Is it a substantial source of revenue for Tesla? I don't know, because it's never spoken about. It's great that Musk has taken upon himself to build those or there would be no EV deployment in the world. Tesla should be richly rewarded for its investment in building them out, but the network won't be proprietary for long.
In the US, the government won't step in so it's not a problem. Supercharging is a money loser - a supercharger site is over $1 million of capital cost. If you do the math, it will show a long, long payback period. That's why in Europe you see so much consolidation and ownership changes in 3rd party supercharger sites.

Tesla is opening the network (in the US) as we speak in anticipation of getting federal funding to build more superchargers. If they don't want federal funds, then there will never be a reason for them to open the network. It's going to be more expensive for non-Tesla owners to charge at those sites so Tesla will still retain an advantage even after opening it up.

As far as things like quality goes - I think you're partially correct. Legacy manufacturers have decades and decades of experience in "what it takes". They've all gone through their growing pains and have a finely tuned assembly line. Tesla, relatively speaking, is still young - just over 10 years of experience and quite honestly only about 3-4 years of high volume manufacturing. Do they need to get better? Yes. Are they getting better? I think so; the Y has had much less problems than the initial runs of 3's. It's going to take time and you're right that they need to get better with growing competition. However, if you buy a Tesla, you should know this and not expect that Tesla = Mercedes. It'll eventually happen but it's going to take time.

Is Tesla on purpose making crap cars? No - they are trying (mine was just fine as I think most are...you only hear from complainers) and I think they are improving. As you heard Elon say yesterday, eventually all cars will be EV's so there will be no advantage to that. I do think that Tesla will maintain its lead in battery tech and general automotive tech. It's pretty plain to see that's where they are putting their focus and will maintain it.
 
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Thanks for the feedback. Some in TMC think I'm a short seller, because who in their right mind would criticize Tesla?!? But it's precisely because I believe in Tesla that I'm willingly expressing my tough love.
I keep going back to Apple as the model to follow (I own an android but, you get my point), their absolute customer centric approach, their little comfy bubble of love at an excessive price.
I've already made my point about FSD as a write off. Tesla will need to find a way to monetize the system that isn't an upfront or monthly charge on car owners. Other than no one really caring much about it, I don't think people really want an OS in their car that can add or remove functionalities without owner approval. Maybe younger generations don't mind? Could be, but old guys like me still feel like if I bought it, it's mine to do what I want with it, including modifying or fixing it.
Elon Musk ought to make impeccably finished cars a priority over his casted front and rear structures. As I have stated before, I get it, there's no accolades and adulation for a car that's just as well finished as Japanese or German cars. And I will just refer back to my previous posts on the very real concern with the consequences of minor fender benders that would even slightly damage either of these 2 parts.
Finally, and this isn't specifically a Tesla issue, how are governments planning to address spontaneous combustion of batteries, or fires that would lead to multiple combustible events in neighborhoods of EVs and Powerwalls? Fire departments aren't equipped to handle these unique situations which today are managed by flooding these fires over many hours.
 
who in their right mind would criticize Tesla?!?

👋 Hello. I strongly criticize things that are wrong with Tesla in the hopes that people will wake up and realize that they're going to waste their first mover advantage. There are so many things Tesla could have improved over time, but has chosen not to. Service, build quality, customer support, interior trim. They've addressed none of those, and most have actually become worse over time rather than better.

I often wonder if these only-positive-things-to-say-because-I'm-an-investor people also never reprimand their kids for doing something wrong.
 
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This thread is meant for those who may have great things to say about Tesla but who are also willing to voice issues and concerns to the forefront without instantly being insulted with cheerleader narrative about how great Musk is and oh so smart.

So, just curious, does pretending to be a reality-based investor mean you have made millions from your wisdom?
 
So, just curious, does pretending to be a reality-based investor mean you have made millions from your wisdom?

No, it means when reality comes, several of us are ready to get out and realize our gains at the first signs while lots of others are going to ride the elevator to the basement and take theirs at a loss. It also means we openly admit Tesla's share price has absolutely nothing at all to do with reality.