trading

[defc0n]

so given the 15% drop overnight, do you all think tesla is prime for a decent investment or rollercoaster status is still in effect

In terms of my outlook for Q4 deliveries and earnings, my best guess is this price point is very attractive. Unclear how much more short term pain there will be until then.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Closed out my 250 puts for $20 when TSLA hit 330. Could have got 24 if I timed it perfect (thus far in the day). But not gonna be greedy. Btwn that and the 275 calls I sold yesterday, a pretty nice profit -- starting to make up for the damage done to my account in May. If it goes lower, I'm fine with it. I will add to my long term position.

Hard to say, but there's a good chance it goes to 200, maybe even 180 in the next few weeks. That would make a double bottom. Maybe not in a straight line, but with some chop. Let's see what happens.

 

[Boomer19]

What does enhanced summon have to do with profitability? Do you really think a feature like that is going to make people who would never consider a Tesla before suddenly say "I gotta have that"?

not point. enhanced summon is a major milestone is fsd progress. the success of this adds credence to possibility of fsd at some point in future. that will impact SP intrinsically

Tesla had record sales this quarter, and a very respectable $50k ASP on the Model 3, but didn't break even. That might be OK if the strategy was clear, but it's not. I have not seen or heard anyone outline what the strategy even is, to make the company profitable with the current lineup and market conditions, which by the way will only deteriorate in the next 2 - 3 years. The Model 3 ASP will only decline from here-on-in, so this is as good as it gets. People have been referring to unicorn efficiencies since 2017 and while there have been huge improvements, the margins aren't there yet.

agreed - no time to reduce sense of urgency, for sure

The narrative that Wall St somehow has unrealistic expectations of the company and is driving down the valuation is BS. Wall St drove UP the valuation to almost $80bn at one point (which was silly), and it's still valued at $47bn right now, which is probably fair. This is even without a clear path to full year profitability until 2021 at the very earliest. Over the next 4 quarters, at best there will be one quarter profitability and then it's all about the Model Y ramp up, which will be expensive.

I think Tesla is being mismanaged - I honestly think better leadership and a more focused strategy could drag them into profitability. The Model Y is crucial. A Mad Max Cyber Punk pickup isn't.
I love my Tesla, and I'd recommend it to anyone who will listen. It's a great car. But I have to day, Tesla remind me of another car company I used to love many decades ago. Saab.

 

[bdy0627]

We already almost hit the 50% Fib with this huge initial drop. I may be wrong, but I don't think we go much lower. The 50 MA is not far below us at $221 and it should provide support.

 

[bdy0627]

There may be some shorts choosing to cover on such a huge sudden drop. Is there really that much more potential downside here?

 

[Sudre]

I am/was expecting a further drop because shorts have borrowed shares they have not dump yet this week. What I don’t know is if I have a whole bunch of share that I owned/borrowed two days ago does the uptick rule still stop me from selling them at market?

I don’t want to turn this thread into a discussion thread but the other general topic is a waste of time.

Currently I am happy to see this rise. It means the uptick rule is doing its job.... I’d rather my original assumption be wrong. Maybe the shorts dumped their whole wad last night.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Bought weekly 225 puts for $1 from the profit I made. It's a long shot, but let's see if I can make a few more extra bucks by Friday.

 

[anthonyj]

Bonds aren't even down much. I'm expecting a rebound sooner than later

 

[Antares Nebula]

Macros also not helping.

 

[defc0n]

Sold ALB for extremely small profit. Debating pulling the trigger on TSLA today.

 

[defc0n]

Bought TSLA @ $224.74

 

[defc0n]

Sold TSLA @ $226.73

 

[anthonyj]

Got me 10x 8/2 260 calls. Bound to hear some big news sooner or later, stock can’t stay suppressed

 

[defc0n]

Got me 10x 8/2 260 calls. Bound to hear some big news sooner or later, stock can’t stay suppressed

Zero clue what happens so will just continue playing small ball. Shorting QQQ again on this pop thinking we may get more bad tariff news soon.

 

[Runarbt]

Need some advice.

Planning to buy some stock, and was thinking going the route via selling a put option.

If I sell a $200 2021 put which will pay me $4500.. Then worst case I wont get any stocks, but keep the $4500. Best case, I get 100 stocks for only $15.500? (pay $20.000 -4500 which I got paid for the put option)

The only downside is - it will be a covered put, and this will tie up $20.00 for two years.. and if SP soars I miss out on these 100 shares.

Best case - SP dip below $200 the next weeks and the PUT is exercised. And I get share now for $155 and am free to sell/rinse and repeat?

Am I correct? Completely new to selling options.. only experience with options is I have been burned a lot on calls the last years. :-D I am sick of loosing on time-cost, was thinking Id be on the other side of the trade for once.;-)

 

[mongo]

Need some advice.

Planning to buy some stock, and was thinking going the route via selling a put option.

If I sell a $200 2021 put which will pay me $4500.. Then worst case I wont get any stocks, but keep the $4500. Best case, I get 100 stocks for only $15.500? (pay $20.000 -4500 which I got paid for the put option)

The only downside is - it will be a covered put, and this will tie up $20.00 for two years.. and if SP soars I miss out on these 100 shares.

Best case - SP dip below $200 the next weeks and the PUT is exercised. And I get share now for $155 and am free to sell/rinse and repeat?

Am I correct? Completely new to selling options.. only experience with options is I have been burned a lot on calls the last years. :-D I am sick of loosing on time-cost, was thinking Id be on the other side of the trade for once.;-)

I think you are confusing parts of puts and calls.
If you sell a $200 covered call, that means you have 100 shares of stock on hand (or infinite cash). If the stock goes up then you are out all the value between the SP at exercise and 200 (price can go to infinity hence the need for shares to track the increase).

If you sell a $200 covered put, you need to have 20k in cash on hand, worst case is stock goes to zero so you need to buy their worthless shares at $200 each. (Your 100 shares would also be worthless hence the need for cash)

 

[Runarbt]

I think you are confusing parts of puts and calls.
If you sell a $200 covered call, that means you have 100 shares of stock on hand (or infinite cash). If the stock goes up then you are out all the value between the SP at exercise and 200 (price can go to infinity hence the need for shares to track the increase).

If you sell a $200 covered put, you need to have 20k in cash on hand, worst case is stock goes to zero so you need to buy their worthless shares at $200 each. (Your 100 shares would also be worthless hence the need for cash)

Im not sure why you think I plan to sell a call option?

I did say I plan to buy some stock, but I ment "buy" by selling a covered put. I do understand I'll have the 20k locked on my schwab account. This is money I have at hand now - and either I will buy 100 shares now, or I will sell a covered put.

Maybe I'll never get the stock this way, and I would be better off choosing a shorter dated put.. but then it pays way less.. maybe go a bit further with a 2021 $290 instead? (my 20k + 10k I get selling the option which is $102 now). Then I either get the stock in 2021 at $290, costing me $188 (290-102) or I am left with 10k if SP soars above $290. Either way it might be worth the 2year wait.

I will have to play a bit with the numbers and look at shorter dated puts. Dont mind if the put expire worthless and have to do a rinse-repeat.

Sure - TSLA can theoretically go to zero - but I do doubt it very much. Then I'd have 100 worthless stocks. If I bought the stock straigth up, I'd also have 100 worthless stocks, but they would have cost me $228 instead of $150 or $188. ;-)

 

[mongo]

Im not sure why you think I plan to sell a call option?

I did say I plan to buy some stock, but I ment "buy" by selling a covered put. I do understand I'll have the 20k locked on my schwab account. This is money I have at hand now - and either I will buy 100 shares now, or I will sell a covered put.

Maybe I'll never get the stock this way, and I would be better off choosing a shorter dated put.. but then it pays way less.. maybe go a bit further with a 2021 $290 instead? (my 20k + 10k I get selling the option which is $102 now). Then I either get the stock in 2021 at $290, costing me $188 (290-102) or I am left with 10k if SP soars above $290. Either way it might be worth the 2year wait.

I will have to play a bit with the numbers and look at shorter dated puts. Dont mind if the put expire worthless and have to do a rinse-repeat.

Sure - TSLA can theoretically go to zero - but I do doubt it very much. Then I'd have 100 worthless stocks. If I bought the stock straigth up, I'd also have 100 worthless stocks, but they would have cost me $228 instead of $150 or $188. ;-)

Gotcha, I got confused by the getting stocks part.
If you think AP is going up, then you may lose more by waiting to buy (due to needed to cover the put) than the 4.5k gains you.(25% rise cancels it out, not even ATH).

 

[willow_hiller]

Anyone else expecting a dip Monday morning?

I'm looking to double my meager number of TSLA shares, but I figured that the bears will make a big push Monday morning to try and continue the negative narrative from the ER.

Put in a GTC buy order @ 215. Might be a little low, though, unless the shorts are really eager now the uptick rule is over.

 

[defc0n]

Anyone else expecting a dip Monday morning?

I'm looking to double my meager number of TSLA shares, but I figured that the bears will make a big push Monday morning to try and continue the negative narrative from the ER.

Put in a GTC buy order @ 215. Might be a little low, though, unless the shorts are really eager now the uptick rule is over.

Probably. Often times around 10:30 or 11 is a good time to buy. Would be surprised to see 215 on Monday though.