trading

[bdy0627]

It will be interesting to see if the reservation number counters the gap down in the midst of a low volume holiday week. Monday volume should be ok, and perhaps Tuesday too, but after that the stock will be pretty easily manipulated I would think. The safest approach to adding is probably waiting until the stock definitively clears the high from Friday. It's a tough week to buy on early weakness Monday. I'll probably just watch. I don't have any calls at the moment, just shares.

 

[defc0n]

Unpopular opinion here, but I don’t put a whole lot of value into the reservation count. I put more value into the model 3 reservation count.

Stock price should pop a little bit on Monday though I suspect anyway. Won’t regain fully from it’s Friday losses though I’d bet.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

With the cybertruck design, Tesla is sucking oxygen from Ford, GM and Chevy(?, not sure, not a truck guy, not a US cars guy).

Cybertruck is designed to be:
1) cheap to produce (no stamping, no painting) and
2) aerodynamic, i.e smaller battery, i.e. again, cheap to produce
and, Tesla already had some cost advantage on battery/drivetrain/integration/software.

These three advantages add up. Ford/GM/Chevy will need $70K-$80K for traditionally styled electric truck to match Tesla's $40K version (poor aero, huge battery, heavy etc). They were likely hoping on charging $20K-$30K premium over their gas counterpart. And will now have a problem getting away with it.

Hence, even if it doesn't take huge marketshare, Tesla just made job for everyone else much harder. Sucked the oxygen (profits) out of the room.
Others will have to compromise on one of the:
1.price and margin, in order to keep volume,
2.volume, in order to maintain high price and margin, or
3.design aesthetics in a follow the leader move, that will weaken their positioning, becoming "followers", instead of "incumbents"

This is like watching crash in a super slow-motion. I felt like that in 2015, when I had great conviction that Tesla will slaughter the rest of the auto-industry. Since then, big chunk of that conviction has disappeared due to all on-goals (MX ramping, M3 ramping, funding secure, pedo guy, fighting SEC, Q1 ER).

Anyhow, that conviction is coming back, especially as I see everyone else fiddle so badly with transition, which I expected, but didn't know for sure will happen.

Just random musings on Sunday...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Unpopular opinion here, but I don’t put a whole lot of value into the reservation count. I put more value into the model 3 reservation count.

Stock price should pop a little bit on Monday though I suspect anyway. Won’t regain fully from it’s Friday losses though I’d bet.

Agreed.

What are thoughts on today's price action? Looking at the daily chart, TSLA is currently just above the mid-BB. Seems more likely that it could go higher if it can close above that line (~$336). I'm a little gunshy during low volume weeks with this stock, but I think this is a fundamentally different stock and market from a year ago, so maybe the caution shouldn't apply in this case.

 

[EVNow]

Agreed.

What are thoughts on today's price action? Looking at the daily chart, TSLA is currently just above the mid-BB. Seems more likely that it could go higher if it can close above that line (~$336). I'm a little gunshy during low volume weeks with this stock, but I think this is a fundamentally different stock and market from a year ago, so maybe the caution shouldn't apply in this case.

Today the stock is tracking the index (1.22% Nasdaq vs 1.18% TSLA, right now). I feel the SP will just track index the next 2 days. Ofcourse with the usual runup and MMD.

BTW, in the past few weeks, out of nowhere someone comes and buys a million shares in the middle of the day with zero news to push the stock up by $10. So, who knows ...

 

[anthonyj]

I have no idea what to make of this. What an insane stock

 

[Boomer19]

I have no idea what to make of this. What an insane stock

View attachment 481297

i thought today would be about 8-10 bucks but not surprised. still haven’t put on any new positions

 

[defc0n]

I just think algos should be in attack mode here with the truck reveal sell off giving the look of a candle top. Daily chart was awkward yes but large events like the reveal will always make things all screwy so that part is unsurprising.

I might be a buyer if I get confident about a possible bottom.

 

[bdy0627]

So far, this is playing out pretty similar to that gap down from 1 year ago. I'll be surprised to see the stock sustain a climb before next Monday. I think it's likely to get pushed lower tomorrow and Friday. If so, it's a nice BTD opportunity on Monday.

 

[Cherry Wine]

So far, this is playing out pretty similar to that gap down from 1 year ago. I'll be surprised to see the stock sustain a climb before next Monday. I think it's likely to get pushed lower tomorrow and Friday. If so, it's a nice BTD opportunity on Monday.

If it plays out that way, would be one of those rare instances where the stock behaves as predicted and I had the wherewithal to stick to my read.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm thinking this second wave dive is influenced with Elon's decision to defend himself on a 'pedo' trial.
Got to take bad with the good...
I think we test $315 now, unless it closes over $330 today.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm thinking this second wave dive is influenced with Elon's decision to defend himself on a 'pedo' trial.
Got to take bad with the good...
I think we test $315 now, unless it closes over $330 today.

I'm thinking it is likely to bottom around $320, but maybe overshoot down to $317. Certainly won't be surprised at other outcomes.

 

[Electrifying]

TSLA is not available to short on Ameritrade:

 

[Cherry Wine]

TSLA is not available to short on Ameritrade: View attachment 481743

It does happen on occasion. In every instance that I can recall it has not been associated with an imminent squeeze.

 

[EVNow]

I'm thinking this second wave dive is influenced with Elon's decision to defend himself on a 'pedo' trial.
Got to take bad with the good...
I think we test $315 now, unless it closes over $330 today.

Post ER week the lowest was ~310.

Anyway, when do you think we hit that ? I had sold this week's 325 put, moved to next week's 320.

 

[defc0n]

I’m guessing if you believe Tesla will buy Panasonic’s cell manufacturing division, you may want to wait until after the news drops since it is likely TSLA will fall as a result.

I’m starting to become increasingly bullish on TSLA for the medium term now with the latest price retraction, but I still fear there may be macro wide sell offs soon. Debating buying within the hour today though.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm going to buy some calls near close today regardless of today's price action. I think a lot of bulls were nervous about this holiday week and took some chips off the table. TSLA has been resilient at resisting a further drop. Bulls will look at coming back in now. IV is low and we've had a modest dip. I think this is a pretty good risk/reward spot to add.

 

[defc0n]

I really wanted somewhere between $313 - $324

 

[bdy0627]

I've been adding SPY puts lately. Seems like people are starting to chase the market up a bit now. It has been running up for almost 2 months now without a significant pullback. VIX is extremely low and puts are cheap. Investors are starting to relax. That's often the time the market surprises people.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I bought back some upper ends of call spreads and sold some put spreads. Leaving open some sold ITM calls I’ve been rolling since ER in case we go lower. Will start to buy those back if we get into the $320 range.