TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

Trading at about USD $269 in Germany right now

I'm not sure if the market knows what to do with the lemur release, but it's hard to follow any negative narrative around it.

Börse Frankfurt (Frankfurt Stock Exchange): Stock market quotes, charts and news

For real, the bears on sites like Stocktwits are losing all their credibility. I know we're exhausted and morale is fraying somewhat in longland, but the bears are starting to look really damn foolish and the common person is starting to "get" it. Finally.

 

[Mobius484]

They’ve looked foolish for a while to me, but I think even people not familiar with Tesla are starting to see the polarization. People aren’t that dumb.....wait a sec..... anyhow, most people will figure his out soon. I am more interested to see how the journalists/media tries to save face here as the mode 3 really takes off.

 

[dqd88]

Most people who buy Camry's don;t even know the Model 3 exists. (YET!)

For this reason, I wish Tesla would consider doing at least a little bit of advertising. Even if just targeted AdWords. Someone googles "Camry" and see a link to Model 3.

 

[Fact Checking]

People aren’t that dumb.....wait a sec..... anyhow, most people will figure his out soon.

While I'm usually very cynical when it comes to how smart people are about politics or science, I am very optimistic when it comes to people recognizing an amazing car, which the Model 3 really is.

I mean, here's some spontaneous reactions from all demographics:

... and the YouTuber who made this video stated it that in the Uber rides he took he got no negative reactions at all: so these aren't just the best reactions from 100 rides - these are literally just ~5-6 rides from ~12 rides and there's a "Tesla smile" from every passenger ...

So yes, I do believe Americans are going to see through the negative propaganda and they are going to believe their own lying eyes. The negative propaganda might even help in a fashion: it lowers expectations, so the transition to being amazed and bewildered is an even more violent emotional experience.

The only thing Tesla should try to communicate well is how long (or short) it takes from ordering to delivery: and that's a tough balancing act because it only takes one YouTube video and a burst of 20,000 new orders to shift the delivery timeline out by another month ...

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Yeah, Elon said it's because of bankwupcy tomorrow.
Who didn't see this coming though, amirite?

I think the more relevant question is what will happen to the FSD portion of Deferred Revenue.

 

[Ulmo]

I realize its OT, but this is AH so...

Does anyone know how "off menu" ordering is done?

I mean, its not like I want to know. I'm just, you know, asking for a friend...

Go to a Tesla Store and order in person.

 

[oneday]

I think the more relevant question is what will happen to the FSD portion of Deferred Revenue.

Attorney fees for bankwupsy.

 

[dqd88]

In the future, I hope to see a ridiculous plethora of customization options. Millenials would love this. All about individuality. This will probably have to be quite a few years out but I'm talking really like a cornucopia of boutique body mods, colors, stitching, refrigerators, you know

I wish he would make the falcon wing doors an option. I think that would open the X up to many others who just don't want those doors. Those who want them can pay an extra $15k or something. (for the record I like them, but I have seen others feel stand off-ish about them)

 

[Artful Dodger]

So what do we need to know next? One thing we DON'T know is the current status of the new Grohmann battery pack assembly line. It's been 5 weeks since this article was published: (included for background)

Tesla Bringing 3 New "Grohmann Machines" Online To Reach 8,000 Battery Packs/Week | CleanTechnica

So does GF1 now have the capacity to build 6K packs per week, or 8K? What will be the split between L3MR and T3LR packs? How does the split affect those numbers?

VIN registrations should give us a clue as to the planned production split.
(VINs-to-Date in October stats in my next comment below).

Next, how is Panasonic coming with the 3 additional battery cell production lines, the recently accelerated rollout? Will Model 3 production still be cell constrained when those lines are running? Or what Model 3 production rates would 30% more cells allow?

Note that today's guidance from Tesla for SR availability is 4-6 months from now, so that's the Feb-Apr 2019 timeframe.

Over to you!

 

[dqd88]

Regarding the market action thread being overtaken by "gossip", I have a few random points:
I have been guilty.
I have been annoyed by it.
I have tried going elsewhere (and continue to) but you get so little back and forth discussion, it leaves you with a hollow feeling in your heart.
General discussion has had 1 post in 24 hrs...
There are many great specific threads that are not polluted and we want to keep them that way.
What do we really mean by market action anyway? We can all see that the SP just went up. Lemur/lemr build up and reality affects the SP more than Munro proving that we are all investment oracles for instance.
My mitigation is that when catching up, I usually only read posts with 2+ positive emojis.

Please create a separate thread to discuss our feelings about the Market Action thread. I don't think this thread is the place for it.

 

[Fact Checking]

New Form-4 from Tesla dated October 18 (yesterday), registering ~100k shares of new stock options for Gerome M. Guillen of GA4 and Tesla Truck fame:

SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.​

Exercise price is a very nice $276 near the 52-week low.

The options are probably part of his recent promotion to Tesla President of Automotive. The vesting schedule is: 10% of the options vest next April, and the rest is vesting over the next ~5 years after that, at a 1,550 shares/month rate, which should be a nice boost to his previous compensation package once Tesla stock valuation starts catching up to reality.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Attorney fees for bankwupsy.

I think it could be in the region of $200 - $300 million so maybe too much for the attorneys (although they are California attorneys........).

But that's just from 5 minutes looking at the filings so I could be off. Will take a closer look tomorrow.

 

[Fact Checking]

Please create a separate thread to discuss our feelings about the Market Action thread. I don't think this thread is the place for it.

Please create a separate thread to discuss your feelings about creating a separate thread for feelings about the Market Action thread!

I'll ... see myself out, thank you very much.

 

[engle]

@Fact Checking you beat me to this by 5 minutes! Here's the Form 4 with all the details. Agree he received his new option at what I think shall be an excellent exercise price:

New 8K from Tesla dated October 18 (yesterday), registering ~100k shares of new stock options for Gerome M. Guillen of GA4 and Tesla Truck fame:

SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.​

Exercise price is a very nice $276 near the 52-week low.

The options are probably part of his recent promotion to Tesla President of Automotive. The vesting schedule is: 10% of the options vest next April, and the rest is vesting over the next ~5 years after that, at a 1,550 shares/month rate, which should be a nice boost to his previous compensation package once Tesla stock valuation starts catching up to reality.

 

[W84M3]

I suspect Karen is right. A large portion of the factory is probably under utilized waiting for Panasonic to produce more cells. Now, the LR high margin cars with AWD are being produced, with the MR providing capacity for a higher number of cars, which improves total cash flow. Very smart move.

Just checking in from Europe (goodmorning ) on the news and had to search 8 pages back to confirm what I was thinking has already been brought up on TMC (of course it has )

With the new Grohmann lines & all other lines running >5/6k a week they are battery cell constraint.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

FSD removal is the right thing to do.
They said the old chip won't support FSD, so no point for you to buy it early and not have FSD until it's replaced. Once the chip is available, you'll pay the full thing, so the replacement is no longer free.

Well, the replacement will be included in the cost, which was already going to be higher for buying it after the fact. You're paying for the replacement either way (unless you buy a car after they're building them with the new hardware). They pull the same "costs more after delivery" sales tactic with EAP and it doesn't require any hardware upgrades.

 

[dqd88]

New 8K from Tesla dated October 18 (yesterday), registering ~100k shares of new stock options for Gerome M. Guillen of GA4 and Tesla Truck fame:

SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.​

Exercise price is a very nice $276 near the 52-week low.

The options are probably part of his recent promotion to Tesla President of Automotive. The vesting schedule is: 10% of the options vest next April, and the rest is vesting over the next ~5 years after that, at a 1,550 shares/month rate, which should be a nice boost to his previous compensation package once Tesla stock valuation starts catching up to reality.

That's alot of $$$. But he deserves it.
I just hope he sticks around for a while. And he's not burnt out. Probably is so used to Elon by now.
Seems what happens in the valley is people get f/u money... and leave companies rather quickly.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Tesla saving money is my interpretation.

Model 3 owners going ape *sugar* and freaking out. Trying to explain the completely obvious strategy but of course those SA asshats are going to try and FUD it to oblivion.

Tesla offering FSD refits for 3000-5000 is a mistake.

Tesla has made many product offering mistakes that they took away.

60D software batteries. Removed.
Bio defense independent of PUP package. Removed.
85PL retrofit. Removed.
Tow kit retrofit. Removed.
Ventilated seats. Removed.
Active spoilers. Removed.

FSD refits at a discount. Removed.

I’m sure I’ve missed other examples but this should be clear enough that the removal
of retrofit FSD option is for the betterment of Tesla and consumers for the long run.

Plus, all those FSD pre-payments could only earn interest, they couldn't count the payments themselves as revenue/cashflow until FSD is delivered, right?

So they just had this growing number that was a "liability" since it wasn't an "asset" on the accounting reports, that wasn't help them reach GAAP profitability. By slowing this (by not offering FSD on 3 at this time) they can make the numbers look better (even though when FSD is eventually delivered and they can list all that money as revenue, there will be a nice spike for whichever quarter it occurs in, it's just bear FUD fuel for now).

 

[gora321]

#Tesla registered 2,236 new #Model3 VINs. ~60% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 151525.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter

Europe: +1,22%

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Plus, all those FSD pre-payments could only earn interest, they couldn't count the payments themselves as revenue/cashflow until FSD is delivered, right?

So they just had this growing number that was a "liability" since it wasn't an "asset" on the accounting reports, that wasn't help them reach GAAP profitability. By slowing this (by not offering FSD on 3 at this time) they can make the numbers look better (even though when FSD is eventually delivered and they can list all that money as revenue, there will be a nice spike for whichever quarter it occurs in, it's just bear FUD fuel for now).

Cash flow is counted when the cash comes in...