TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

These are August Days...

 

[Ellec]

Can I suggest the crowdsourcing folks to open a (private? public?) Slack channel, or just exchange Google Hangouts/Skype handles.
Coordination needs quick feedback loops.

I've just created a Slack channel at Slack, if you want to join let me know

 

[Thekiwi]

It was the Republican-controlled senate that kept the EV tax credit last year.
There are senators who want to scrap it, but I don't think it'll see broad support there.
I think that the EV tax credit will remain, and remain in its current form, because those Southern Republicans' foreign manufacturers will want to keep it that way.

FYI - Dean Heller, republican Senator from Nevada, has the most generous EV credit bill in Senate at present - but he just lost his senate seat yesterday to the democrat challenger.

 

[tivoboy]

First decent close above 345.5$. Setup is in place for 355$. Probably won’t get there by Friday.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think we'll squeeze up quite a bit on post-election momentum, nearing ATH territory by end of week. Perhaps a fall back early next week then crack ATH by next Fri and pull back.

Seems like the Nov 12 options were popular in the weeks running up to 3Q earnings and that has to have some kind of mirror to short positions. (Clearly I'm just guessing and know nothing)

 

[printf42]

I categorize these ridiculous volume spikes as “a fund manager helping out a shorty friend”. Maybe knowing they can do this is the reason they dare to short that much of the float.

 

[EVNow]

First decent close above 345.5$. Setup is in place for 355$. Probably won’t get there by Friday.

In the last few days, last few minutes there is a lot of selling pressure that brings the price down or people are selling to pull the price down.

 

[humbaba]

I think we'll squeeze up quite a bit on post-election momentum, nearing ATH territory by end of week. Perhaps a fall back early next week then crack ATH by next Fri and pull back.

Seems like the Nov 12 options were popular in the weeks running up to 3Q earnings and that has to have some kind of mirror to short positions. (Clearly I'm just guessing and know nothing)

Maybe, but while NASDAQ rose (presumably post-election momentum) $TSLA was capped at <$350. The speculation that this is being done to keep the last short positions from going underwater seems likely, but the reason is really immaterial: the important point is that a lot of money is being spent to keep $TSLA under $350, enough to overcome both $TSLA's base buying pressure and the macro movement of NASDAQ.

Consequently I'm not all that confident when $350 will be breached as opposed to momentarily passed. Clearly there is some sort of limit, but I'm not sure how we can tell what that is. Maybe 4Q earnings call? My sense is that the longer the price is suppressed in this fashion the stronger the upward surge will be.

 

[tivoboy]

In the last few days, last few minutes there is a lot of selling pressure that brings the price down or people are selling to pull the price down.

Well frankly I think the only reason we closed above it today was the fact that the overall mkt was up 575 and NSDQ was up 2.6%

 

[brian45011]

Corporations & businesses can deduct interest on debt. Individual workers can't, even if they got the college debt for the purpose of getting a job. It goes on and on; the tax code is wildly biased against workers. And it wasn't always that way (you used to be able to deduct that college debt interest, back in the 1970s)

Topic No. 456 Student Loan Interest Deduction | Internal Revenue Service

 

[Joe F]

Why would they do that if they think SP will go to $4000? Or do they expect to be able to buy them back at a lower price?

Must be they're content to hold only 25 shares when it hits their target price.

 

[humbaba]

Topic No. 456 Student Loan Interest Deduction | Internal Revenue Service

I don't know how this compares to the 1970s tax code (and we don't need to hash that out in this thread!) but please note that the deductible amount is capped and the cap is lowered the higher your income. In other words, this is more proof of how convoluted the tax code is. It is much easier to speak in generalities that are broadly true but the devil is always in the details.

But please, no more on tax code unless it is about Tesla's finances or otherwise relates.

 

[SpaceCash]

The speculation that this is being done to keep the last short positions from going underwater seems likely...

The "last short positions" still owe ~30 million shares. YUUUUGE

 

[brian45011]

You could equally well say that most individual taxes are passed through to corporations. It makes about as much sense (i.e. none at all).

Here's the argument: taxes paid by individuals actually come out of their salaries or wages, in the case of working people, or out of their stock dividends or bond interest, in the case of non-working people. People demand higher salaries, or higher dividends, to cover the increased taxes. (People actually do, that bit is real.) So, if you're an idiot, you could conclude that coprorations "really" pay all the taxes.

This is nonsense.

There is a way of actually determining tax incidence using "price elasticity of demand" calculations. It tells us that most corporate taxes are, in fact, paid for by CORPORATIONS, like a sane person would expect. Corporations *can't* pass through their taxes; they are competing on price with other businesses. If a dumbass corporation tried to raise its prices because its income taxes went up, people would just buy from its competitor. (The exception is monopolies which can raise prices as much as they want.)

Likewise, most individual taxes are paid for by individuals, because most individuals don't have the market power to just demand salary increases.

Silly time?

Competently managed enterprises strive to price their goods and services at levels to cover all their expenses and have something left for the benefit of the owner(s). Taxes (employment, property, income etc.) are expenses inherent in operating a business. Tariffs are a form of taxation. The reason why Chinese deliveries dropped precipitously in the last three months is because fewer Chinese customers were willing to pay that form of taxation .

You think this anecdote is an aberration? TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[Artful Dodger]

who has this kind of capital to burn trying to cap the stock at these resistance levels?

Okay, I'll play. Here's a short list:

1. UBS
2. Morgan Stanley
   
3. Exxon-Mobile
4. Koch Industries

Do you need specific public examples of where each of these spent money on advertising to damage Tesla? These are the BIG BOYS and they're playing for their lives, and they know it.

 

[brian45011]

please note that the deductible amount is capped and the cap is lowered the higher your income...
But please, no more on tax code unless it is about Tesla's finances or otherwise relates.

The only deduction or credit for the benefit of individual filers I can thinks of that is not capped/phased out based on income is the EV credit.
Also, it can and has been claimed multiple times by the same filers.

 

[humbaba]

The only deduction or credit for the benefit of individual filers I can thinks of that is not capped/phased out based on income is the EV credit.
Also, it can and has been claimed multiple times by the same filers.

So, do you have any insights into how long the "cap the stock price" game can be played? I freely admit I pulled 4Q earnings call out of thin air -- it just seemed like the nearest predictable event of note. Am I overlooking something closer? Another factor?

 

[Chickenlittle]

So, do you have any insights into how long the "cap the stock price" game can be played? I freely admit I pulled 4Q earnings call out of thin air -- it just seemed like the nearest predictable event of note. Am I overlooking something closer? Another factor?

Q4 will be labeled the peak and the game goes on

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why would they do that if they think SP will go to $4000? Or do they expect to be able to buy them back at a lower price?

Ark Invest is a kind of Indexed Tech fund focused on innovation and growth. Because they are limited to the percentage of their holdings in any particular stock, when that stock rises they have to sell some to stay balanced. This is also when they make money.

The important question to ask for balance in judging Ark Invest is, were they buying 30 days ago when the SP was at $255?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hopefully they have somewhat similar outlooks for the other stock in their fund.

Ark Invest has a target yield of 15% per year for their entire fund. So with 4:1 winners to losers, they'd need TSLA to make maybe 25% per year. Easy to capture this year with the volatility in TSLA. But of course that's also why they have to take profits. Cheers!