TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

CNBC - after the close today: Gene Munster weighs in: The worst still to come for Tesla?

Whenever a headline ends with a question mark, the answer is almost invariably "no". They are nefariously designed to draw clicks.

Thanks Curt for always updating us on the “ins and outs” of the the industry. Mobile eye was valued at $15b already.

 

[sundaymorning]

0.01%. Two reasons: EM has deep pocketed friends IF he does not want to go to WS for $. Second, Tesla would be bought up if the market value fell to 20b. Pocket change for Apple/Google types

What do you think the probability that Tesla would fall to $20B?

 

[defc0n]

What do you think the probability that Tesla would fall to $20B?

0%. Their IP right now is worth at least that much alone.

 

[defc0n]

I’ve talked about this before. Intel just recently paid more than $15 billion for mobileye. Ponder that for a bit.

 

[Mkorpal]

Ok... let's see where this forum is? Chance of Tesla bankruptcy- 0.01% or 0.1%. or 1% or 10%

I know where the smart money is, where are we?

Pretty much mirrors the chance of "The Big One' striking Fremont.

 

[sundaymorning]

The Saudi prince is is on a business trip to the US and will be meeting with Elon Musk while he’s here. Many are suspecting that he may invest in alternative energy to divest from oil. This might turn into a big deal.

Saudi Arabia's powerful crown prince is taking a landmark US tour, meeting with with stars from Elon Musk and Bill Gates to Oprah

 

[Reciprocity]

Ok.. Franz is the Fonz because he brings the cool factor to Tesla. Elon is Richie because he is basically a kick-ass director and Apollo 13.. duh. And Kimball is Ron Howard's creepy brother Clint Howard. JB is Chachi. Sorry JB.

If Google buys Tesla, the Fonz is gone because Franz ain't putting all that crap lidar and on his beautiful designs. Richie aka Elon is off to direct the Apollo sequel,. Apollo 2021 BFR FTW. Kimball, aka Ron Howard's creepy brother will still be creepy and JB will start his own new EV company (Joanie loves Chachi spin off) which is basically what every one does when they leave Tesla.

This is about as likely a scenario as had been discussed here.

 

[Reciprocity]

The Saudi prince is is on a business trip to the US and will be meeting with Elon Musk while he’s here. Many are suspecting that he may invest in alternative energy to divest from oil. This might turn into a big deal.

Saudi Arabia's powerful crown prince is taking a landmark US tour, meeting with with stars from Elon Musk and Bill Gates to Oprah

You think Oprah will buy Tesla? You get a car.. And you get a car...

 

[Reciprocity]

The Saudi prince is is on a business trip to the US and will be meeting with Elon Musk while he’s here. Many are suspecting that he may invest in alternative energy to divest from oil. This might turn into a big deal.

Saudi Arabia's powerful crown prince is taking a landmark US tour, meeting with with stars from Elon Musk and Bill Gates to Oprah

The Saudis would be better off investing a trillion dollars in Elon then in Aramco.

 

[kelevra]

I took another look at the b/s, but (with the possible exception of the $1 billion in deferred revenue) I am having trouble finding the unreal liabilities.

what about the resale value guarantees of 3b, deferred revenue is 2b, non-controlling interests of 1,5b, and build-to lease liabilities 1,65b, customer deposits 850m. sure non-controlling interest owners own parts of your solar assets and you have to pay your leases or meet certain terms (e.g. gigafactory 2 deal) but i wouldn't see all liabilities as the same. also liabilities in the far future (there are solar backed notes due in 20-30 years) should be discounted heavily.

 

[hacer]

Bloomberg modelers calling a 2200/wk burst rate, and 1190/wk pre-burst rate, and predicts that Tesla can't sustain burst rate.

Tom Randall (@tsrandall) | Twitter

View attachment 291160
View attachment 291161

View attachment 291158

Bloomberg says "...Tesla already proved it was unable to sustain an end-of-quarter-burst, which it reported at the end of 2017. Our model estimates that Tesla's pre-burst Q1 rate was 1,190/week."

Tesla's reported "burst rate" at the end of 2017 was "over 1000/week". But Q1 was right after the end of 2017 and (prior to the Q1 burst) it had a rate of 1,190/week that disproves their own statement that it wasn't sustainable going forward. Also it's outrageous that Bloomberg calls this "our model" since it was basically stolen from others.

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla's reported "burst rate" at the end of 2017 was "over 1000/week". But Q1 was right after the end of 2017 and (prior to the Q1 burst) it had a rate of 1,190/week that disproves their own statement that it wasn't sustainable going forward. Also it's outrageous that Bloomberg calls this "our model" since it was basically stolen from others.

Yeah that model is fuxed. You will see tomorrow when the real numbers are posted.

 

[EinSV]

Yeah that model is fuxed. You will see tomorrow when the real numbers are posted.

The Bloomberg and Troy models have been truly craptacular. Epic fail.

 

[defc0n]

The Saudis would be better off investing a trillion dollars in Elon then in Aramco.

They just might need a lot of battery storage to go along with the worlds largest solar power farm they are building...

 

[Time]

$389.61 to $244.59...sitting at the lows...a day before a major milestone announcement that has a 100% chance of being spun negatively, regardless of what is said or released.

I believe we have confirmation that, as of this moment, all Tesla shareholders are "f*ckrupt". We have run out of f*cks to give.

Today, I slammed my toe into a table leg. I felt nothing.

 

[sdtslafan]

$389.61 to $244.59...sitting at the lows...a day before a major milestone announcement that has a 100% chance of being spun negatively, regardless of what is said or released.

I believe we have confirmation that, as of this moment, all Tesla shareholders are "f*ckrupt". We have run out of f*cks to give.

Today, I slammed my toe into a table leg. I felt nothing.

Yeah, I'm feeling pretty numb about it all too. Pretty brutal week. At least there's a chance we don't go bankrupt.

 

[Off Shore]

The Saudis would be better off investing a trillion dollars in Elon then in Aramco.

The Saudis aren't looking to invest in Aramco. They're looking for others to invest in Aramco.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Reading history would help....

Cash Concerns:
An Electric Carmaker Struggles as Its Production Lags

Tesla CEO plays down concerns

Problems Resolved:
Bid for Cash by Tesla Motors Is Likely to Energize Company and Critics Alike

I seriously wish people would just google search filter sometimes....

 

[Hogfighter]

One thing is clear.....the ramp is on. It's obvious now that they were able to slug out approximately 1,000 3's per week for much of Q1, while occasionally shutting down the line to add equipment. But over the past week and a half, we've seen a step change in production.

The words I've liked have been (to paraphrase) 'as we go through 300 per day', and 'comfortably above 2,000 per week'. Neither of those phrases sound like burst rate, window-dressing type BS we got at the end of Q4. They sound more to me like the ramp will continue. Add to that the confidence of Musk that there's practically no chance of bankwuptcy.

Most pundits are being overly harsh on the 2,500 per week estimate by end of March. Missed by a week or two....sheesh, tough crowd.

So, we're closer than ever to Porsche-like production numbers, yet the stock is in the crapper.

 

[gene]

You think Oprah will buy Tesla? You get a car.. And you get a car...

Well, I know Oprah owns a Tesla Model S as she walked up to me at the Tesla store parking lot in Santa Barbara, asked me about my Model S, I gave her the usual sales pitch, she walked right in and bought one. This was a couple of years ago.