TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[2virgule5]

Several VIN assignments being reported around 13,xxx.

Yep, including my second reservation (configured 2 weeks ago), 13xxx as well. Time to trade in the Bolt.

 

[sundaymorning]

One thing is clear.....the ramp is on. It's obvious now that they were able to slug out approximately 1,000 3's per week for much of Q1, while occasionally shutting down the line to add equipment. But over the past week and a half, we've seen a step change in production.

The words I've liked have been (to paraphrase) 'as we go through 300 per day', and 'comfortably above 2,000 per week'. Neither of those phrases sound like burst rate, window-dressing type BS we got at the end of Q4. They sound more to me like the ramp will continue. Add to that the confidence of Musk that there's practically no chance of bankwuptcy.

Most pundits are being overly harsh on the 2,500 per week estimate by end of March. Missed by a week or two....sheesh, tough crowd.

So, we're closer than ever to Porsche-like production numbers, yet the stock is in the crapper.

You got that right. Tomorrow will be a confirmation that we need and for others to jump back on board.

 

[dmckinstry]

Call me crazy, but that joke was just dumb.

Not as dumb as those who took it seriously.

 

[Time]

Time for my favorite game.

“The honeymoon is over for the iPhone.”
Tim Moynihan, Crave, the Gadget Blog from Cnet 11 January 2007

“Again, I have said this before and I will say it again; Apple has done the industry an enormous favor because they basically told the world expect a media player as a software feature on a good smartphone. As the leading smartphone appliance company and platform company, we could not buy that kind of validation for $100 million.”
Jim Balsillie, Co-CEO, Research in Motion, 10 April 2007

“I’m more convinced than ever that, after an initial frenzy of publicity and sales to early adopters, iPhone sales will be unspectacular… iPhone may well become Apple’s next Newton.”
David Haskin, Computerworld, 26 February 2007

“What does the iPhone offer that other cell phones do not already offer, or will offer soon? The answer is not very much… Apple’s stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 seems ambitious.”
Laura Goldman, LSG Capital, 21 May 2007

“The iPhone is a niche product.”
Nokia CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, 17 April 2008

“The Palm Pre Will Be an iPhone Killer”
Ross Catanzariti, PC World, 2 Apr 2009

“Still, a supercharged Google phone debuts at a time when Apple has been enjoying its third year of success with the iPhone. But three years with the same design is a long time in the gadget business, and every bright shiny device with a load of buzz is a potential threat.”
Scott Moritz, TheStreet.com, 4 January 2010

“The iconic Apple iPhone will either not exist or occupy a very small niche satisfying the needs of committed Mac fans around five years from now.”
Eugene Kaspersky, Kaspersky Lab, 27 April 2010

And my second favorite game.

We forecast TSLA will sell only 18,000 Model X cars this year, and will never sell more than 20,000 in any future year.
Montana Skeptic 3/7/16

And my third. Advice from 2014 Mark Spiegel.

"The "sell-side" is forecasting that Tesla will sell 500,000 cars in 2020. If Tesla sells 35,000 cars this year [2014], 500,000 sales in 2020 would imply a six-year CAGR of 56%. No complex product manufacturer has ever grown that quickly from a revenue base of $3 billion or more."

You can thank 2014 Mark Spiegel for pointing out that Tesla is doing something that has never been done before!

 

[TradingInvest]

$389.61 to $244.59...sitting at the lows...a day before a major milestone announcement that has a 100% chance of being spun negatively, regardless of what is said or released.

I believe we have confirmation that, as of this moment, all Tesla shareholders are "f*ckrupt". We have run out of f*cks to give.

Today, I slammed my toe into a table leg. I felt nothing.

I have a lot of shares, but still hope I can get more buying opportunities. As long as I am buying, the lower the better. My continued purchase will last at least another 10 years.

This company has zero chance to bankrupt. Worst case sell it for $60~80B. Most likely case is to become one of the largest company in the world.

Just prepare cash and get ready for sales events. I will never buy with borrowed money though.

 

[ggr]

The Saudis would be better off investing a trillion dollars in Elon then in Aramco.

You got that back-to-front. They're doing the Aramco IPO to get the trillion to invest in ElonCo.

 

[sundaymorning]

HELLO....

We have just made our first additions to TSLA since (read on) -

Bought in at $247.77 net, picking up a fair chunk in that we added to our positions by 16%.

The last time we added any Tesla was Sept 16, 2016, when we increased holdings by about 30% with that once-in-a-lifetime "free" arbitrage: buying SCTY at under $17 to give us TSLA at $155 - at a time the stock was about $250.

Good move. How do you keep snatching TSLA at these great prices?

TSLA trading above $254 in Europe.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Well, Friday March 30th turned into a great day, but not an epic day:
View attachment 291081
I can't see consistency in any time period that would allow Tesla to claim high production rate for extended period, a week or more. At least not at 2000+ cars per week, so we will be probably getting some extrapolated data again.

However, there are other ways to look at the issue at hand:
View attachment 291082
Production in the last four weeks has been WAYYYYY higher than any period before, though that's still probably only around 1000-1500 cars per week. That is for the whole week, there's been one day bursts that have been probably quite a bit higher.

And finally, this may be the most meaningful way to look at the data:
View attachment 291085
Basically Tesla has made 25% more cars in March than previous 8 months combined. Or, in March it made 60% more cars than Jan+Feb combined. You get the picture - there are positive ways to present this information and Tesla typically does that.

I just hope that overall production has approached 2500 cars a week, extrapolated from daily. My best bet is that there were 9000 +/- 1000 M3s produced in Q1. BTW, for the context, I lean towards being cautious most of the time, though Tesla made me look like an unbridled optimist number of time...

I took the eye of the ball and Apr 2nd turned out into a monster day. Please understand there is delay in input of info, so I expect Apr 2nd to reach at least 40, maybe 50, even 60...

 

[CuriousSunbird]

One thing is clear.....the ramp is on. It's obvious now that they were able to slug out approximately 1,000 3's per week for much of Q1, while occasionally shutting down the line to add equipment. But over the past week and a half, we've seen a step change in production.

The words I've liked have been (to paraphrase) 'as we go through 300 per day', and 'comfortably above 2,000 per week'. Neither of those phrases sound like burst rate, window-dressing type BS we got at the end of Q4. They sound more to me like the ramp will continue. Add to that the confidence of Musk that there's practically no chance of bankwuptcy.

Most pundits are being overly harsh on the 2,500 per week estimate by end of March. Missed by a week or two....sheesh, tough crowd.

So, we're closer than ever to Porsche-like production numbers, yet the stock is in the crapper.

Are you kidding. The SP is awesome. 3x sales. 10x book. InfiniteX profit. Google or Apple would kill for numbers like that.

 

[dc_h]

Ok.. Franz is the Fonz because he brings the cool factor to Tesla. Elon is Richie because he is basically a kick-ass director and Apollo 13.. duh. And Kimball is Ron Howard's creepy brother Clint Howard. JB is Chachi. Sorry JB.

If Google buys Tesla, the Fonz is gone because Franz ain't putting all that crap lidar and on his beautiful designs. Richie aka Elon is off to direct the Apollo sequel,. Apollo 2021 BFR FTW. Kimball, aka Ron Howard's creepy brother will still be creepy and JB will start his own new EV company (Joanie loves Chachi spin off) which is basically what every one does when they leave Tesla.

This is about as likely a scenario as had been discussed here.

Kimball could be the older brother that was only on the pilot, but didn’t poll well.

 

[kelevra]

The Saudi prince is is on a business trip to the US and will be meeting with Elon Musk while he’s here. Many are suspecting that he may invest in alternative energy to divest from oil. This might turn into a big deal.

Saudi Arabia's powerful crown prince is taking a landmark US tour, meeting with with stars from Elon Musk and Bill Gates to Oprah

a lot of energy storage is needed.

The World’s Biggest Solar Project Comes With a ‘Batteries Included’ Sticker

 

[K_Dizzle]

TD Science & Technology - I:F0CAN05N4R, mutual funds, quote, price - Morningstar

The TD science fund just increased its stake in Tesla

 

[Richgoogol]

SP shooting up pre-market in heavy volume

 

[Reciprocity]

2020 Model 3s in the final 7 days. Meh. Market seems to not hate it. 29000 total deliveries.

More color:

8k Q1 production totaled 34,494 vehicles, a 40% increase from Q4 and by far the most productive quarter in Tesla history. 24,728 were Model S and Model X, and 9,766 were Model 3. The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last qtr

 

[elasalle]

Whats driving preMarket? Any news?

 

[Richgoogol]

Huh..I guess they couldn't wait to shut the door on the shorts and sellers. Is this the first time they have reported in the morning?

tsla-ex991_6.htm

 

[EinSV]

2020 Model 3s in the final 7 days. Meh. Market seems to not hate it. 29000 total deliveries.

More color:

8k Q1 production totaled 34,494 vehicles, a 40% increase from Q4 and by far the most productive quarter in Tesla history. 24,728 were Model S and Model X, and 9,766 were Model 3. The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last qtr

"In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles. It is a testament to the ability of the Tesla production team that Model 3 volume now exceeds Model S and Model X combined. What took our team five years for S/X, took only nine months for Model 3."​

Sounds sustainable -- which is critical. Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

And a big FU to shorts and the bankruptcy BS brigade:

"Given the progress made thus far and upcoming actions for further capacity improvement, we expect that the Model 3 production rate will climb rapidly through Q2. Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow. As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines."​

And hammering Model 3 FUD:

"Finally, we would like to share two additional points about Model 3:​

• The quality of Model 3 coming out of production is at the highest level we have seen across all our products. This is reflected in the overwhelming delight experienced by our customers with their Model 3's. Our initial customer satisfaction score for Model 3 quality is above 93%, which is the highest score in Tesla's history.

• Net Model 3 reservations remained stable through Q1. The reasons for order cancellation are almost entirely due to delays in production in general and delays in availability of certain planned options, particularly dual motor AWD and the smaller battery pack. As described above, owner happiness with the product is extremely high."

 

[sweter]

Up 6% pre-market.

 

[Tslynk67]

Have placed a new crazy-high sell limit order again, just in case we get any short panic... I don't expect it, but best to be sure.

 

[defc0n]

mini short squeeze time. after bouncing off 243-245. so predictable. don't say I didn't warn them.