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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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OT, but Christmas.

First and only avatar I've used is a copy of a sign I dare not post near garage as we have the only Tesla in nearby neighborhood. A Christmas gift from one son who drove the M3 yesterday on rain soaked streets. It is so tight and road worthy it seems like a bank vault on wheels. A very nimble bank vault. Once he punched it more than I have and I knew in the rain the wheels would not spin. He said, "best car you've bought, Dad." Last, 18 years ago, was a top of the line Lexus which my wife doesn't want to sell just yet. The Lexus rides better and is better insulated so a bit quieter on the road. But seems tinny by comparison. And the very premium sound system is inferior to the Tesla. Even the steering wheel in the Lexus has some play because with my heft and old-age stiffness I use the wheel in each car for easy entrance/exit. No play with the Tesla; it's a rock.

The Lexus steers so well, once on a smooth curve my brother remarked "it seems like it understands the curve and sticks to it." Believe me the steering in the M3 is much better. Even on the terrible roads we have near home you can feel the steering shudders with the bumps a bit but the turn or straight line driving is not affected. Both cars have double-wishbone in front but M3 is somehow much better. It really does not want to be diverted from where you point it. I don't know if front motor helps with this. Maybe.

This was our first distance travel in the car. Round trip to Santa Rosa on a full charge would have made it (just about 200 miles plus tooling around town for much of the rest of a full charge indicated at 306 total). On the return we stopped at Fairview supercharger with 87 miles remaining and about 50 miles left to go. I had some range anxiety as at least once we had near bumper to bumper near an accident. I was a klutz about backing into the disabled stall, but my wife can use the mirrors better. Four of the eleven stalls were occupied (6 ish on Christmas eve). I also was pleasantly surprised billing works like a charm. Plug and pay. I did have the foresight to make sure our credit card was correct on our Tesla account. 50kwh charged in an hour or less at 26 cents per (we have 11.5 overnight rates at home). That added about 200 estimated range. A complete fill up for 400 miles on the Lexus costs at least $90-100 so 200 gives the Tesla a $45/13 advantage at supercharger rates or over twice that at home rates. Somewhere in the range of 3.5 to 7 times cheaper.

Right now the stock looks like a downer so remember, ownership is a good investment too. That day on paper we lost in the market more than half the cost of the car. I don't have second thoughts about either investment. However the macro situation looks like Trump is an 82 year old trying to back into a disabled stall using only the backup mirror for the first time in the rain. I can't delineate the stalls boundaries in the rain at night but for the economy or foreign policy there are no boundaries worth knowing about, naturally.:rolleyes:
 
I advice everyone to save up cash to buy when the eventual collapse caused by Trump comes. Political analysis of the war with fed based on trump's style and the impossibility to change his ways due to age suggest that he will bring the rift to the eventual conclusion: a big blow up until the fed chair capitulates. Until then, it'll just be chaos.

I didn't think this was possible and believed that the recession will be next year.

However Trump's ability to bring the market down 3%
on a traditional december rally time (when 75% of the recorded history is positive on top of almost full employment) suggest that this is one man's doing. What is effectively happening is that trump brought the recession forward to a time when it should be a mini correction.

There is one light at the end of the tunnel and that is the presidential election cycle that should begin soon. Usually the administration will want to goose the market and make it go up until April so that the eventual market strength will affect voting during election. If Truno start now, there might still be time to make it. However, 4 months doesn't give a lot of room for errors.

My worry is that is are no one in the white house to tell trump this as he has fired most io the high level staff.
 
The reasons for my numeric uncertainty:
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So, as I said before, I think the Q4 production estimates of 53k by Troy are probably conservative, but I have no good data to support it other than the four circumstantial indicators which were reliable in the past: carsonight, Vicky, Elon's mood and the "demand lever meter".

So my estimate is 54k-76k for Q4 M3 production and 56k-80k for deliveries, which 30% spread is worse than useless.

Thanks for your great insights, deeply appreciate!
 
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Just want to say, I miss some of the 'shorts' viewpoints around here. even on a day like today, I am mostly reading 'great buying opportunity'. things seem out of balance.

Also, China price cuts have me concerned. I have long felt a sedan over CUV/SUV was not the right move. There is no way you cut prices, hence cutting profit, with huge debt repayment upcoming if demand was strong, or even good.

Still all in, but also realizing still have a choice about that, where I do not want to see a day, I don't.

SUV popularity becomes entrenched in Chinese auto market - USA - Chinadaily.com.cn

First, prices are normalized to US prices + vat + tariffs.

Second, the opposite of what you said is true. Tesla was brilliant to make a sedan first. They can't build enough as it is to fulfill demand. Imagine how many pissed of people there will be be with production delays and a million+ reservations. Tesla is much smarter then people give them credit. They know the TAM is much larger for cuvs but they knew they couldn't make 1M/y for their first high volume car. Now they have the blue print and can duplicate the system in China and Europe and even Ohio.
 
Moderator...

I'm Ok with some politics as it relates to the Trump's Crash - this is exactly what I'm trying to time in finding the bottom for TSLA here. Those past comments on election cycles, most recoveries from downer Q4's in general... all good. Just keep it simple people.

On that subject, saving cash is good (been doing so for a while) but running a bit low and just going a bit more if still below 300. This is like 420 and the time before all over again. But if anyone doesn't take the opportunity to BUY you'll be saying the same in reverse of a lost sale at the peak. It's a must buy at this point.

On the guaranteed rebate topic, new conclusion... I'm an impulse buyer and go for the good deal. IMO, he's flushing out people like me. If I didn't own one already, I'd buy right now because it would eat at me. Wait until Q1 and the story would be "I should have bought last quarter" and then the sale maybe lost entirely and I'd wait for the $35K. With >20% GM, he's still smart to get every last "capable" buyer on the Christmas Sale, AND the New Year Sale. In the end, he gets more of my money making every sale count at maximum profit. No competition so people will wait and he knows it.

"Max Pain" - New definition IMO, it's right now. OT, I didn't quite get the job at Fender R&D designing effects pedals (their loss), so $TSLA is the IRA along with SoulPedal(R). One or both of these will pop next year.
 
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I now personally don’t think Tesla will ever see $400. The bears will play the same games over and over again until Tesla has lost his advantage and the competition (VW in particular) takes over volume EV sales. In about 2-3 years would be my guess.
Maybe. If they have infinite amounts of money to lose. Just over the the last 3 years, there are down more then $8B according to ihor's estimates. They don't have data from before 2016, so it could and is probably much more then that. Do they have $9B more to waste? An be to what end? Tesla doesn't need the stock price any higher, they have already won.
 
Unfortunately for you and Nate Silver, election prediction is a classification problem, not a regression problem. Very common machine learning application.

If you think that since Trump won, then Nate should have set probability of Trump winning at 100%, then you simply do not understand statistics at all.

Nate gave 30% where many gave 1% or less. This is excellent result.
 
Any thoughts on the current bear argument? Pretty incoherent to me. Massive conspiracy to commit accounting fraud, the Model 3s on the road don’t actually exist, a Model 3 with a problem is exactly what is happening with every car on the road, and the I-pace/ taycan/ ID will take over the market

Same argument (just with minor variations) they've always had.
 
If you think that since Trump won, then Nate should have set probability of Trump winning at 100%, then you simply do not understand statistics at all.

Nate gave 30% where many gave 1% or less. This is excellent result.

I guess I don’t understand statistics. He gave Hillary a 70% chance to win the election yet she lost. So even though he gave her less of a chance to win than others did, his results were excellent? Am I understanding your logic correctly?
 
I guess I don’t understand statistics. He gave Hillary a 70% chance to win the election yet she lost. So even though he gave her less of a chance to win than others did, his results were excellent? Am I understanding your logic correctly?

He had the highest probability of the eventual outcome. So compared to the rest of the field he did well.

Had he only adjusted for Russian interference...
 
I just used the bloodbath to buy back all the calls I sold. Really don't like to pull this move because it reduces my cash flow during a down spike, but it was too good of a deal to pass up.

Surprisingly, the $24 drop yesterday only affected mid length calls by $1. Looks like option traders are calling this drop a bullshit.

Glad to have you back in. I believe Elon when he says Tesla will be cash flow positive in all quarters moving forward. Even with 53k production, I think our margins as well as profits should be inline with last quarter.
 
But his results were still wrong. I’ve never been told I did a great job when I get something wrong.......
70% chance means, 30% of the time the results will be "wrong". If the results are never going to be wrong, then the chance would be 100%.

ps : But a natural question would be, how do we know the 70% chance was indeed correct ? The only way to know is to repeat the "experiment" a number of times and then we can measure the actual results. But ofcourse, you can't do that with presidential elections.

That's why mid terms are a good way to figure out the accuracy. Take all the races where 538 gave - say 70% chance of winning. Out of those the actual results should be about 30% "wrong" and 70% "correct".
 
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