Waiting4M3
Active Member
I want to do a retrospective from the Dec quarter to provide some perspective on how the market may view/receive the M3 ramp:
Dec:
The big unknown seems to be the macro this time. But if you want to buy into TSLA for the long term, and can look past short term macro jitters, now is a much better time to buy than end of Q4.
Dec:
- Pre-delivery-report expectations
- Tesla was guiding 1k/wk by 2017 end, 5k/wk by March 2018 end
- VIN sighting crowd sourced data on TMC estimated ~1500 delivery, and assuming 1k in the last week not delivered, 2500 produced.
- photos of trucks and lots full of M3 got people excited
- report of supplier increasing parts to 5k/wk
- KeyBanc set up a fake high target in order to "manufacture" a Tesla "fail"
- Post-delivery-report result
- Tesla announced 700 actual production in last 7 days, extrapolated to 1k/wk, generally received as meh or slight disappointing by TMC
- TMC crowd sourced data was spot on for overall Q4 production/delivery
- TSLA shot up by 10% in 1st 2 weeks of Jan, stayed volatile but up from end of 2017, until Tesla pushed the 5k/wk date during Q1 ER in early Feb
- Tesla announced 700 actual production in last 7 days, extrapolated to 1k/wk, generally received as meh or slight disappointing by TMC
- Pre-delivery-report expectations
- Tesla guides 2500/wk production March end, 5k/wk by June 2018 end
- VIN registration, invitation/config, assignment data all point to increase in March
- TMC expectations varies widely:
- weekly rate exiting March anywhere from 1k/wk to 2+k/wk
- Q1 production ranging from 8k to 11k (I may not have read/remembered everyone's posts correct)
- Q1 delivery anywhere from 10K to 13K
- weekly rate exiting March anywhere from 1k/wk to 2+k/wk
- reports of supplier parts order increase
- Analysts are still negative, again playing the game of setting a fake high target, Tamborino from Goldman thinks Tesla will miss, 7000 delivery, 8500 production, vs expected 13800 deliveries
- But those with closer ties such as recent meetings with Tesla management and/or tour of factory such as Albertine, Kallo and Choudry coming out saying that Tesla may positively surprise, around 2k/wk at end of March
- the market is more negative than end of Dec. There was some short-lived pops at the end of Dec, possibly sign of some FOMO because of pictures, supply rumors, anecdotes/rumors. But now in 2H March there is no life in the stock price.
- TMC's crowd sourced data looks more solid and reliable than the Q4 data, I think we will nail it (in our wide range) just like Q4.
- I also think the likelihood of Tesla hitting 2k/wk in March end is better than Tesla hitting 1k/wk at the end of Dec
- one big difference is that at the end of Q4, no analysis stuck their neck out and predicted that Tesla would come close to 1k/wk, this time we have a few with insights into Tesla, I think it's significant, but the Market seems to have completely ignored them
The big unknown seems to be the macro this time. But if you want to buy into TSLA for the long term, and can look past short term macro jitters, now is a much better time to buy than end of Q4.
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