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  1. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Interesting point about CKD. I wonder if unboxed process will allow Tesla to ramp Model 2 production quickly on other continents once GF Austin can mass produce unboxed parts, which would be much more cost effective to ship vs the S/X that went to Tilburg, new factories just need to start with a...
  2. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    "The transactions reported on this Form 4 were automatically effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan previously adopted on October 23, 2023 and established by the reporting person for the purpose of an orderly liquidation of options scheduled to expire in 2024."
  3. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    this report says end of 2024
  4. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    you can compare with another flyover by Brad Sloan from last Sat, most of the cars in the lot next to the helipad, and in the new west side outbound lot are new this week. You can see the helipad lot at ~3:20 in that video, and the west side outbound lot at ~7:35. Between Joe and Brad and...
  5. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla filed a permit on 2/21 to install 3 new presses at Fremont, might be Roadster related given Elon's tweet yesterday https://aca-prod.accela.com/COF/Cap/CapDetail.aspx?Module=Building&TabName=Building&capID1=24CAP&capID2=00000&capID3=006OG&agencyCode=COF&IsToShowInspection=
  6. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If true, that only <40% of people are aware of EVs, and Tesla has >4% US market share (CNCDA data end of 2023), then Tesla effectively has >10% market share
  7. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I see a lot of discussion looking at BYD and other Chinese EVs as competition, I think this is too narrow of a view. The real competition isn't Tesla vs other carmakers, it's EVs vs ICE, and which one has lower cost, more efficient supply chain ( for both parts and energy source). The scale of...
  8. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The new place isn't for 4680, Tesla is building a PCBA lab there. Permit was filed on 12/22 https://aca-prod.accela.com/COF/Cap/CapDetail.aspx?Module=Building&TabName=Building&capID1=23CAP&capID2=00000&capID3=0058N&agencyCode=COF&IsToShowInspection=
  9. Waiting4M3

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Rob's numbers are right. The production by model numbers are reported at DaaS-Auto (汽车产量_汽车产量数据_中国年产量数据-达示数据), but usually later than what people post on X, typically comes out this time of the month
  10. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla's BEV share in CA in 2023 is 62.9%. There is an easier way to directly calculate that from the CNCDA report. There is a section showing 291,518 BEV sold in CA YTD, which you can confirm it is 21.5% of total YTD 1,354,302 vehicle registration in CA. And Tesla's 183,278 is 62.9% of that.
  11. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon might've been referring to this from Sam Korus, I suspect Sam used 2019 prices when MY configurator opened up
  12. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ford-uaw-negotiators-reach-labor-231622588.html
  13. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's hard to predict progress of AI, but I think Tesla needs to stay on top of policy/regulatory stuff even if it's several years away, these kind of things don't change overnight, they need to be prepared to knock down roadblocks way down the road
  14. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I was thinking ahead to the eventuality when Tesla will want to apply for a robotaxi license
  15. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    sounds like Cruise lied to DMV, in that case this seems a reasonable punishment, and hopefully shouldn't impact the rest of the self-driving industry
  16. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I guess we don't know where DMV really sits without knowing what they're demanding from Cruise to get reinstated The DMV has provided Cruise with the steps needed to apply to reinstate its suspended permits, which the DMV will not approve until the company has fulfilled the requirements to the...
  17. Waiting4M3

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is not good, I see Cruise and Waymo as policy pathfinders for all robotaxi networks including Tesla. This is setting a bad precedence.
  18. Waiting4M3

    Wiki Model S Delivery Update

    This permit status went to "Revision Issued" this week Project name: "Tesla (F20-0083) P2 Module & Pack – Main Line IFP" Description: "Maximum allowable quantities (MAQ) of toxic liquids in distribution piping and buffer tanks on second floor of the Tesla Fremont Factory."...
  19. Waiting4M3

    Wiki Model S Delivery Update

    This delay doesn't sound too bad, could be way worse, like things that: 1) Tesla doesn't have control over, like parts shortage 2) Tesla doesn't know exactly how to solve yet, like module-gate during Model 3 ramp, FWD during MX ramp, etc
  20. Waiting4M3

    2020 Shipping Movements

    Port of SF published a new schedule yesterday showing another ship at pier80, name/ETA all TBD
  21. Waiting4M3

    2020 Shipping Movements

    Any Teslas on Salome? It docked at Newark where other Tesla ships docked last quarter, and is on its way to Zeebrugge
  22. Waiting4M3

    First boatload of M3 to Europe

    I think XIN is short for Xingang, which is the name of Tianjin's port
  23. Waiting4M3

    First boatload of M3 to Europe

    Hyundai Glovis is a separate company from Hyundai Motors. Hyundai family owns a lot of different businesses, they also own Hyundai Heavy Industries which build cargo ships.
  24. Waiting4M3

    First boatload of M3 to Europe

    MisterGreen EV on Twitter
  25. Waiting4M3

    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Very nice prediction, Tesla is likely behind your projection by 1 year, but this is still very prescient. And on top of that, that $420 call :eek:
  26. Waiting4M3

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    Another potential caveat (if I read below correctly): If bondholders convert early, and the 20 day VWAP prices average out to be <$360, Tesla could pay less than $920m + interest. This means 2 things: 1) Since Tesla's payout upside is capped at $920m, it seems to make sense for them NOT to...
  27. Waiting4M3

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    Tesla has to announce by Dec 1st. It has nothing to do with Dec 1 not being a business day. From this filing "We will inform holders of the settlement method we elect for any conversions occurring on or after December 1, 2018 no later than December 1, 2018"
  28. Waiting4M3

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    Maintaining current price, golden cross could happen around 12/1. Last cross was on 8/1-2, coinciding with Q2ER call, and price went from $300 to $349 on 8/2
  29. Waiting4M3

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Tesla's balance sheet also affect their ability to offer leases, if I understand some exchanges in investor thread correctly.
  30. Waiting4M3

    Supercharger - Ukiah, CA (8 V2 stalls)

    I've seen report of stall 2A ripping up underside of cars from over a year ago reported here on TMC's Ukiah SC thread Supercharger - Ukiah
  31. Waiting4M3

    california CVRP rebate

    got email that my check is in the mail. Applied 7/12, approved 9/13.
  32. Waiting4M3

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    They can frame it however they want but Q3 cash flow and net income, combined with guidance thet Q4 will be better, will destroy the bankruptcy narrative.
  33. Waiting4M3

    Supercharger - San Jose, CA - Cherry Avenue (LIVE 21 Dec 2018, 24 Urban stalls)

    I went by today, didn't see obvious wiring connection to the bucks. There was a PG&E person working in the central panel (not sure of lingo), so I didn't get too close.
  34. Waiting4M3

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    Q1 2013, Tesla guided GAAP and non-GAAP profit on 3/31/2013 in 8K http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/4d58cf5c-d10d-4b96-80bb-ed2af411cb10 I don't remember seeing them guiding Q3 2016 profit.
  35. Waiting4M3

    Supercharger - San Jose, CA - Cherry Avenue (LIVE 21 Dec 2018, 24 Urban stalls)

    That charger location doesn't have a lot of room, I'm guessing that's why the bucks are riding on top.
  36. Waiting4M3

    Supercharger - San Jose, CA - Cherry Avenue (LIVE 21 Dec 2018, 24 Urban stalls)

    Yep, no transformer, but the placeholder is there, with poles surrounding it. Looking over at other sites (such as San Ramon), from this point on it took another month for transformer to come in and station to open. Also noticed that 12 out of the 24 spots are 30min general parking, the...
  37. Waiting4M3

    california CVRP rebate

    Applied Jul 12, approved today. Now waiting for the check.
  38. Waiting4M3

    Supercharger - San Jose, CA - Cherry Avenue (LIVE 21 Dec 2018, 24 Urban stalls)

    That's my guess as well that this is the Alamden location. The place holder on Tesla's map puts the Almaden location on a single track hiking trail in the woods inside the Quicksilver county park, I'm 99.99999% sure it isn't actually going to be the real location.
  39. Waiting4M3

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Could extra VIN be needed for some reason related to rework? If a car goes through the line a 2nd time and they need a unique VIN to track a car in WIP, maybe they need to assign a new VIN to a rework car?
  40. Waiting4M3

    First day on the AutoPilot trial.

    I use EAP on any freeway driving longer than 1 mile. It's very smooth if you have a clean lane without touching on/off ramp merging, stay in that lane and you will never need to interfere. Changing lane mostly works, but seems conservative, sometimes doesn't wok for reasons I can't fathom...
  41. Waiting4M3

    Has anyone experienced overtime fees while at a Supercharger?

    In my case, the Ukiah SC has 8 stalls. When I pulled in I was the 3rd or 4th car, but when I finished eating lunch a few blocks away, another car or 2 must have pulled in, and triggered the 50% threshold. I don't remember if I saw this detail in Tesla app notification that my charge is almost...
  42. Waiting4M3

    Software update v8.1 2018.32.2

    Got 32.2, definitely fixed the backup camera issue. Also, the car location in my Tesla app now shows it parked at my address, instead of a neighbor's address, not sure if it's related.
  43. Waiting4M3

    Has anyone experienced overtime fees while at a Supercharger?

    I encountered this fee at Ukiah in mid July, it was waived since it's the 1st time I incurred it.
  44. Waiting4M3

    Red Brake Warning Light Stays On

    Same here, got 26.3 last night, and haven't seen the warning lights since.
  45. Waiting4M3

    California DMV - Plates & HOV Stickers

    Yes I remember signing the POA so Tesla can apply for registration for me. I also received the title in the mail today, it's mailed directly from DMV. I don't remember if my envelope for the registration/plates were forwarded by Tesla though.
  46. Waiting4M3

    California DMV - Plates & HOV Stickers

    I took delivery on July 5th and received plates and registration in mail on July 20th
  47. Waiting4M3

    Red Brake Warning Light Stays On

    I also noticed that this only happens if my car has been parked without charging for a while. If it's been charging it almost never happens. I suspect that unplugging it wakes up the car, giving it more time to "settle" the sensors before I start driving.
  48. Waiting4M3

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Another aspect given the scale that China is transitioning to EV/batteries, they will probably be the technology leader in that field in 10 years. Tesla should be in China recruiting all the top talent that they can get their hands on.
  49. Waiting4M3

    Red Brake Warning Light Stays On

    I have the same symptom, brake warning and low wiper fluid warning stays on for 1-2 minutes after starting the car and immediately starting to drive, and then both disappear at the same time. If also seems that if I use summon 1st to get the car out of the garage, then the duration of the...
  50. Waiting4M3

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Just as a reference, here is how Tesla's # of M3 in transit compare with the last week of production in each quarter: Q4 2017, 860 in transit, last 7 days production 793 Q1 2018, 2040 in transit, last 7 days production 2020 Q2 2018, 11166 in transit, last 7 days production 5031 It seems that #...