The stock looks pretty horrific technically, I haven't heard any traders excited to get into tsla here and this forum full of bulls seems generally muted on buying. Tsla has a history of surprising, but I'm not optimistic for a move up tomorrow.
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The stock looks pretty horrific technically, I haven't heard any traders excited to get into tsla here and this forum full of bulls seems generally muted on buying. Tsla has a history of surprising, but I'm not optimistic for a move up tomorrow.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I feel need (again, sorry) to warn you against reasoning by analogy. Firstly, we talked about this, TSLA was rangebound, and patterns work, until they don't, and this may be the case where they stop working, and TSLA goes into prolonged dip
Secondly, in Feb '16, plenty of time to regret: I sold at $235, started adding at $220, it was dropping and dropping and dropping and I was leveraged to the gills by $180. And it continued dropping and dropping, and I was watching another 20%+ drop to $139. Your current reasoning reminds me of mine at the time of $190, $180 maybe. So, what do you do if bottom is not near, but is at $200, or $190? After all, that would be 50% drop from ATH, like Feb '16. And consider, if TSLA recovers from here on out to $350, would your position not be leveraged enough already for a very nice gain? So, is further leverage with under 1 year options really prudent? 6-12 months of rangebound $200-$280 could wipe you out if you continue leveraging, no?
And thirdly, that '16 recovery was miraculous, no one could believe it at the time, so please don't take it for granted next one would be analogous. I've seen stocktwits short that was literally losing 10K every day of money he didn't have, and was shocked the way it was going up. He was liquidated around $210, but, he shorted at $145 and was sure Tesla can't go through $180 on the way back. Just like we couldn't believe TSLA will break down through $280-$290. I feel that was one in 20 years recovery, so counting on another just like it may be asking for too much.
Sorry if I sound too gloomy, I'm trying to present uncomfortable futures, so you consider all possibilities. Otherwise, recency bias may be too strong, black swans are too hard to predict, but they happen semi regularly on stock markets (option-wise)
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Some of us are buying enthusiastically. I set tranches at $5 intervals starting from $321, and have limit buys all the way down to $250. I have also given both of my sons $ today to buy additional shares.
I'm thinking the opposite - this accident is what drove today's loss. And tomorrow's.
Tesla knows whether Autopilot was in use or not. They always know, right? They've never needed logs before to determine that. In this very blog post, they brag that they know 200 times a day that Tesla drivers are using Autopilot on this specific freeway exit.
If Autopilot was not in use here, Tesla surely would have said so very promptly. They have made such public disclosures rapidly in past incidents. Why wouldn't they do so now? Out of respect to the victim's family? Who believes that?
After the Uber crash, a fatal Tesla Autopilot crash takes a huge bite out of the Tesla story and enterprise value. Right now, this is far more important than the ramp or the credit rating. I think the smart money either figured this out, or were told and they are heading for the exits. En masse.
What am I missing here? Does anyone really think Autopilot is innocent, and that Tesla is hiding that fact? Does anyone think a fatal Autopilot crash right now can be 'managed', without major impact on the stock price?
So glad you stuck around after that experience to share perspectives like this.
Like @rdalcanto, I too hold naked puts. It sucks, but I iniatiated that position knowing full-well the associated risks, and wouldn’t fathom putting that blame on anyone but myself. Before you open positions like this, you have to think through the worst case scenarios. It is possible that Tesla has to delay Model 3 production guidance again. It is possible that Tesla has to adjust Model 3 GM% guidance, at least for the short term. It is possible that another accident/fire happen in an unfortunately quick succession to the last one. It is possible that autopilot functions incorrectly and is the cause, we are still in the early days of a new system. It is possible that regulators combine that with the Uber incident and place some sort of restriction on Autopilot. It is possible some defective part leads to a huge Model 3 recall. It is possible that JB Straubel leaves the company suddenly. It is possible that Elon Musk suffers a health problem or an accident. Anyone who says any of those things is not possible is 100% wrong, and there are thousands of other possibilities.
On top of that, TSLA does not trade in its own bubble or on its own merit, it is subject to the whims of a complex macro environment. Things can absolutely get worse.
Short term options are like poker. You can put yourself in a position to have a greater chance of success, but in the end, you are still at the mercy of luck. If you are skilled, the results will show themselves over tens of thousands of hands. Don’t put yourself in a position where one unlucky hand ruins your whole career. Live to see another hand.
My interpretation of the blog post is that they don’t know if AP was in use because they can’t get the logs yet.
Completely agree! However I also think for those who still have dry powder, this seems to be a great opportunity to add. Short term price can go further down but long term Tsla can easily grow 50%+ for the next 4-5 years (m3, y, semi, roadster, pickup, storage, autopilot) without even including more speculative opportunities such as ride share, starlink, etc. Today’s $279 price is more or less equivalent to 279/2 = $139.5 two year back. In hindsight we all know that $139 would have been a great price two years ago.
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Can’t wait until tomorrow. I’ll either buy more shares on sale, or what my account value go up. Either way I’m winning! The long run is all that matters. What did someone say ok to look like an idiot for awhile and a genius in the end.
Of course the more detailed logs are going to be in the car. And I'm betting the ones that get uploaded are batched in a way you probably wouldn't know what happened if the car stopped sending the data suddenly.
Not for short term trading but i was excited to get back in the game. Still got dry powder for further drops but I doubt it’ll fall much from here. If it drops to $250 would be a no brainer!
I think This is a different time unlike 2016. Global economy is strong, Tsla is much stronger, more mature and is working hard to ramp up the most important mass market product (yes, timing might be off a couple quarters at most, but they’ll get it done.) I really like the risk vs rewards here.
I think that's exactly the way they WANT us to interpret it.
The Tesla blog post was cleverly worded, no doubt by lawyers. But if they really don't know, why don't they say that, clearly and plainly? And why wouldn't they know? They've made such determinations in past incidents without collecting physical logs. They record 200 Autopilot uses daily, at the same exact freeway exit. Why would this particular car be the ONE they happened not to record?
That’s assuming they ordered parts according to the original ramp. We know that they changed some of the orders a couple of months ago, it is safe to assume that they adapted their orders to correspond to the actual ramp.
Assume that Tesla gets the money from the customer 30 days before they have to pay the supplier. At 10k cars/month at the end of q1 at 50k dollar price, that ‘s 500M extra cash on hand.
Transferring data over cellular network cost money, for Tesla. And transferring data real time over cellular network is pure waste of capital. The cars always buffer information locally and wait for WiFi or a time threshold pass to upload.
You are drawing conclusions based on your ignorance.
Moody's: $TSLA "Tesla's liquidity position is not adequate to cover 2018 operating cash burn that will approximate $2 billion; debt maturities of $1.2 billion through early 2019. Cash needs will require a near-term capital raise exceeding $2 billion."
so theres that. But what does moodys know
so theres that. But what does moodys know
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Its
It's not a self driving car. I could go out right now a crash my car while autopilot is engaged.
If this dip is due to the crash, then this is an optimal time to buy. You guys can gloom and doom all you want, but this company is a safer bet with each passing day.
It's not a self driving car. I could go out right now a crash my car while autopilot is engaged.
If this dip is due to the crash, then this is an optimal time to buy. You guys can gloom and doom all you want, but this company is a safer bet with each passing day.
I find Moody's downgrade suspicious with highly unusual timing. Given that Tesla Q4 earnings were available on 7th Feb, they should have downgraded bonds then only. It just does not make sense to announce this 5 days before end of Q1 given that Q1 production and delivery numbers will be out in about weeks time. Unless Moody's is speculating production miss based on some model 3 tracker.(Bloomberg)
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I added few shares yesterday at about 300. Those who are looking at stock for long term, this will be great opportunity to get in. One can not time to buy shares just at the bottom, nobody knows where is bottom. I see stock ending this year around 500. In last few weeks there are pretty good signs of Model 3 ramp is back on track again. And with Norway registration data up in last few days risk of S/X delivery miss is also abated greatly.
You're playing a very risky game. My best wishes to you, but it looks to me that you should be reducing your risk, not increasing it like you are doing. We can never know everything, and diversification is one way to deal with that. It's easy to get obsessed, especially to 'prove' that your initial investments were right after all. Beware of a hungry ego that always wants to be proven right. Even the best can make mistakes, so sometimes it's better to cut one's losses. I'm not saying that this is that time--how would I know--but I lost a lot of money several years ago when Apple went down for no reason at all. Even longer term options can get you in big trouble. And sept 18 is not that long term. Be careful, brother!
Maybe I don't understand how it works, but... doesn't EM as a CEO have a responsability only towards
shareholders, meaning investors? He shouldn't care of traders (daily, weekly) and above all shorters.
I mean, if you can take advantage of the volatility, good for you; if you can't, bad for you.
EM has the obligation to make Tesla succesfull as a company, this is much all of it.
As the tiniest of Tesla shareholders, I'm participating in the highs and lows of this company, and what I want for them is to succeed. Can we say the same for traders and people with options?
If I'm not mistaken, we cannot.
Beside long term investors/shareholders, options market is derivative gambling industry,
good luck everybody.
shareholders, meaning investors? He shouldn't care of traders (daily, weekly) and above all shorters.
I mean, if you can take advantage of the volatility, good for you; if you can't, bad for you.
EM has the obligation to make Tesla succesfull as a company, this is much all of it.
As the tiniest of Tesla shareholders, I'm participating in the highs and lows of this company, and what I want for them is to succeed. Can we say the same for traders and people with options?
If I'm not mistaken, we cannot.
Beside long term investors/shareholders, options market is derivative gambling industry,
good luck everybody.
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