TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

you are right, the financial outlook has not changed
and thats why bankrupcty is a very real possibility.

The shorts ending up on Elon's skewer AGAIN on the next big BBQ party is also a very real possibility.

Let me remind you about some past nay-sayers:
How Many Model S Electric Cars Can Tesla Really Sell?
So How Many 2012 Model S Electric Cars Can Tesla Really Sell?
IHS Automotive analyst Rebecca Lindland, for one, is skeptical that Tesla can move that many Model S cars in the current stage of electric-car market.
TechVines: Tesla banks on mass-market sales of Model S - Detroit Free Press
"The high price will limit sales, says Rebecca Lindland, an analyst with IHS Automotive. She doubts Tesla will reach its goal of selling 20,000 Model S sedans in 2013."
Her colleague Aaron Bragman was pithier yet, calling the company's plans to sell 30,000 cars a year "folly" in a March interview.
2012 Tesla Model S Electric Sedan: Industry Analyst Weighs In
Reality: The manufacturer sold 22,477 cars in 2013
Tesla's U.S. sales may be cooling off
Then they went on selling 60-80k per year... Folly indeed

Tesla is losing money on the model s:
In an article originally published on Reuters, Joseph White and Paul Lienert laughably claim that Tesla loses $4,000 on every car it sells.
Insight: Tesla burns cash, loses more than $4,000 on every car sold
Does Tesla really lose $4,000 on every car it sells?
Tesla's U.S. sales are cooling off. Investors are increasingly concerned about a decline in 2014 North American deliveries.
Reality: Model S is sold with 20+% gross margin

bmw tesla killers:
Conspicuous Consumption for the Smug Environmentalist
the i8 is arguably the first real challenger to Tesla’s eco-chic Model S.
BMW's 700 hp eDrive prototype can be a Tesla killer
BMW’s 700 hp eDrive prototype can be a Tesla killer
Reality: BMW sold 448 i8 in the US in 2017, while Tesla sold 27K Model S, i.e. 60 times as many! While the 700hp eDrive is nowhere to be found.

unbuildable model x:
Tesla Model X 'Unbuildable,' Business Model 'Upside Down': Chevy Volt Guy Bob Lutz Doubles Down
Reality: Tesla built and sold about 60K Model X last year.

 

[Ofarlig]

After working in the financial field for a while (before I switched to insurance) I have come to the conclusion to never listen to what anyone says in the field. The intelligence distribution is the same there as everywhere else, meaning most people are people you should not listen to. The difference is they just get paid more for doing their job poorly.

Of course there are also great people in there and you will find a genius or two here and there but too many are just pure gamblers either guessing based on their own misconceptions or just guessing outright. In a booming market as we've seen for quite some time it is hard to fail at it so I guess that has given them confidence.

 

[elasalle]

I find Moody's downgrade suspicious with highly unusual timing. Given that Tesla Q4 earnings were available on 7th Feb, they should have downgraded bonds then only. It just does not make sense to announce this 5 days before end of Q1 given that Q1 production and delivery numbers will be out in about weeks time. Unless Moody's is speculating production miss based on some model 3 tracker.(Bloomberg)

Cherry picking maybe, but these guys ain't saints:
Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis - Wikipedia

Credit rating agencies came under scrutiny following the mortgage crisis for giving investment-grade, "money safe" ratings to securitized mortgages (in the form of securities known as mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO)) based on "non-prime"—subprime or Alt-A -- mortgages loans.

Demand for the securities was stimulated by the large global pool of fixed income investments which had doubled from $36 trillion in 2000 to $70 trillion by 2006—more than annual global spending—and the low interest rates from competing fixed income securities, made possible by the low interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve Bank for much of that period[8] These high ratings encouraged the flow of global investor funds into these securities funding the housing bubble in the US.[8]

 

[Richgoogol]

TSLA getting decimated again pre-market in high volume

 

[Muaddid]

270.00 -9.18 (-3.29%)
Pre-Market: 8:52AM EDT

jeez wheres the bottom...

 

[W84M3]

This is getting really ugly

 

[traxila]

This is a full fledged coordinated bear attack at this point. They have been nursing their wounds a long time waiting for this and they are jumping in with abandon. The technicals look terrible and most buyers are sitting on their hands over the falling knife. Don’t know where the bottom really is thought 280 was a reasonable guess. Guess not lol.

Have to hand it to them, the way this leverage game works they are going to make a lot of money here, maybe more than they lost over the life of their trading TSLA.

I think the company is doing fine and the ramp will be all well in six months. This is why going public sucks, but OTOH we would not be able to invest in the company then. Good and the bad....

 

[K_Dizzle]

TSLA getting decimated again pre-market in high volume

I’m got out again once we broke through 290, I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I feel like Friday would be a good buying opportunity in the hope that the Tesla numbers are solid next week. Elon is going on vacation and having dinner parties on instagram, it doesn’t look like he’s overly worried. On the flip side the shorts seem to be working overtime during the last few days.

 

[elasalle]

planning to add more .... edit - (ugly) ... looks like it could head to the low 250's .. so need to watch and will add if we hit that level

 

[yngwie_2012]

now -4% premarket

 

[traxila]

I’m got about again once we broke through 290, I don’t know where the bottom is going to be but I feel like Friday would be a good buying opportunity in the hope that the Tesla numbers are solid next week. Elon is going on vacation and having dinner parties instagram, it doesn’t look like he’s overly worried. On the flip side the shorts seem to be working overtime during the last few days.

Market closed Friday.

 

[nesgoomba]

270.00 -9.18 (-3.29%)
Pre-Market: 8:52AM EDT

jeez wheres the bottom...

Well, I can answer that question for you. The bottom, including all stocks, is 0. But, I doubt Tesla will hit absolute zero.

 

[yngwie_2012]

why arent the longs as strong as the shorts? Looks like they are worried bout the ramp up as well

 

[X Yes?]

All this bankruptcy talk is pure BS. As if suddenly in the last few days Tesla's financial outlook has changed.

Just a couple of changes in the last couple of days: 1. Moody's Downgrade. 2. A cratering stock price. Tesla will need much more money (2 Billion) in months. Bond market is likely closed for them, any other capital raise will be very difficult. Maybe Elon steps up with more of his own money?

 

[Richgoogol]

Anybody else plans to sell at the open and buy back when everything settles down? That's my plan if someone can convince me otherwise.

 

[RobStark]

FYI. I don't have the competence to evaluate, whether this article is accurate or not.

HEDGE FUNDER JOHN THOMPSON: Tesla is 'on the verge of bankruptcy'

Tesla is just months from a total collapse, says hedge-fund manager

John Thompson "Hedge Fund Manager" has $25M Assets Under Management.

T Rowe Price, major TSLA investor, has ~ $1 Trillion Assets Under Management.

 

[traxila]

Just a couple of changes in the last couple of days: 1. Moody's Downgrade. 2. A cratering stock price. Tesla will need much more money (2 Billion) in months. Bond market is likely closed for them, any other capital raise will be very difficult. Maybe Elon steps up with more of his own money?

Elon doesn’t really have money. He owns companies. Still think that cash flow will be ok in three months, unless they really truly fail at Model 3 ramp. But why would that happen? Extreme incompetence? They should be able to figure it out. Original launch date was 2020....

 

[X Yes?]

270.00 -9.18 (-3.29%)
Pre-Market: 8:52AM EDT

jeez wheres the bottom...

Some support at $235. I f it blows through, who knows?

 

[justvisiting]

The shorts ending up on Elon's skewer AGAIN on the next big BBQ party is also a very real possibility.

Let me remind you about some past nay-sayers:
How Many Model S Electric Cars Can Tesla Really Sell?
So How Many 2012 Model S Electric Cars Can Tesla Really Sell?
IHS Automotive analyst Rebecca Lindland, for one, is skeptical that Tesla can move that many Model S cars in the current stage of electric-car market.
TechVines: Tesla banks on mass-market sales of Model S - Detroit Free Press
"The high price will limit sales, says Rebecca Lindland, an analyst with IHS Automotive. She doubts Tesla will reach its goal of selling 20,000 Model S sedans in 2013."
Her colleague Aaron Bragman was pithier yet, calling the company's plans to sell 30,000 cars a year "folly" in a March interview.
2012 Tesla Model S Electric Sedan: Industry Analyst Weighs In
Reality: The manufacturer sold 22,477 cars in 2013
Tesla's U.S. sales may be cooling off
Then they went on selling 60-80k per year... Folly indeed

Tesla is losing money on the model s:
In an article originally published on Reuters, Joseph White and Paul Lienert laughably claim that Tesla loses $4,000 on every car it sells.
Insight: Tesla burns cash, loses more than $4,000 on every car sold
Does Tesla really lose $4,000 on every car it sells?
Tesla's U.S. sales are cooling off. Investors are increasingly concerned about a decline in 2014 North American deliveries.
Reality: Model S is sold with 20+% gross margin

bmw tesla killers:
Conspicuous Consumption for the Smug Environmentalist
the i8 is arguably the first real challenger to Tesla’s eco-chic Model S.
BMW's 700 hp eDrive prototype can be a Tesla killer
BMW’s 700 hp eDrive prototype can be a Tesla killer
Reality: BMW sold 448 i8 in the US in 2017, while Tesla sold 27K Model S, i.e. 60 times as many! While the 700hp eDrive is nowhere to be found.

unbuildable model x:
Tesla Model X 'Unbuildable,' Business Model 'Upside Down': Chevy Volt Guy Bob Lutz Doubles Down
Reality: Tesla built and sold about 60K Model X last year.

so tesla is not losing money on the model S? how exactly did they lose their money then in every year of their existence? Including 1,9 billion $ last year? aliens??

 

[X Yes?]

Anybody else plans to sell at the open and buy back when everything settles down? That's my plan if someone can convince me otherwise.

Likely, a smart plan. 3 Reasons Tesla's Plunge Is Not A Buying Opportunity