Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
I think radar (and similarly lidar) are good at gauging distance (and also speed) of object. Its response to material depend on the absorption of the particular wavelength of the particular material. In radar frequency what i heard is that metal objects will present a bigger reflection than an organic object. I suspect this is why overhead freeway signs are such a problem because they throw out such a large false signal. The AI algorithm may be ignoring those large radar signals from stationary objects to avoid false-alarms from the signs.

Radar also doesn't have the spatial resolution of a camera. Radar works at much longer wavelength than light. When the car is traveling at freeway speed, and trying to tell a large stationary metal object ahead, whether it's at ground level (a car), vs 20 ft overhead (a sign), is not trivial. 60mph is 88 ft/sec, so seeing something 5 sec ahead is ~450ft away, a 20ft vertical placement difference at that far away could be difficult for radar if it doesn't have the necessary spatial resolution. Lidar, on the other hand, with higher resolution, would do much better in this specific case.

IMO what is needed is for camera image processing to catch up and be able to recognize stationary objects. This is also difficult. With one camera (mono-vision) it is impossible to tell distance (and therefore speed) of an object from 1 single frame. By comparing frames at different times, the size of the object would change and that could tell the relative speed. But a lot of things can factor in, such as lateral speed, and also a big difficulty is that the image processing need to be able to recognize an object in one frame and "remember" the same object in the next frame.

With 2 camera and stereo vision, distance can be computed, and therefore speed. The difficulty here is the computation power needed to do it in real time. I trust Tesla saying that they can get there with the HW they have now, but it will require a lot of development work.

What about three radars and training on the image directly ahead in the area of interest for the motion of the car? I know, a hardware change and the computation issue is amplified, but if they have "trained" the old system to look ahead of the most immediate car, why not more?
 
  • Like
Reactions: 22522
If anyone is wondering why the sudden spike in volatility. Tesla plans six-day stoppage at factory for assembly line fixes -...

Good, will help the ramp and can be considered a catalyst, not a negative...

Tesla is not going to run out of cash. this is simple minded thinking. Elon announced something the other day that I dont think any bears processed because they are dumb. Elon said that orders would be open for Dual Motor, Performance and White interior. These cars will average over $70k ASP. But also, they require a $2500, non refundable deposit. If you have 500,000 WW reservations and 25% want SR and 50% are outside the US, that leaves roughly 187,000 reservations in the US that are waiting on one of the new configs. By this time next month there is a good chance that Tesla will have upwards of $250M (100k of 187k orders) in fresh cash for orders on cars that average 25% more then the current Model 3s sold to date. This would also convert $100M in reservation funds into non-refundable deposits. This is happening this QTR, while deliveries will happen the next 2. Now you see why Elon is so confident that Tesla will be profitable. That would be about $7B in sales for just the model 3 and just 4,000/w. So if they are at 5k/w, you can doss in another 25,000 deliveries or more at $50k+ ASP.or well over $8B in model 3 revenues to go with $5B+ in S/X revenues.

This idea that Tesla is going to run out of cash before being able to collect $13B in just 2 quarters with ASPs that are ridiculously high? Remember, margins on the base model 3 might be tight, but when the model 3 costs $60-$70K, the margins will be very very high.

I neither believe Tesla will run out of money, but on the incredibly small chance that this were to happen, I think there are a few very rich benefactors who would step-in to save the situation.
 
I really do believe that the Bull vs. Bear argument fundamentally comes down to one simple fact. The bears are looking at a given company as a means to an end at the expense of what the company stands for. (Looking for the company to fail, and often doing whatever they can to ensure that). The bulls are looking at what the company has to offer in the future. How it is going to influence its business sector down the line. In other words, investing in its growth, (and also often doing things to help ensure that outcome as well.) One builds up, the other tears down.

Dan
thats a very narrow minded view i think. Shorts help to expose fraud and misuse of capital. Tesla has squandered billions and billions and has some 100k luxury cars to show for that do little to nothing for the environment on a big scale. If other, well functioning companies would have gotten that money, the world would be better for it.

Also, even if they do succeed with their plans, they are still wildly overvalued. And i like to profit from the bad decisions other investors make. Thats the fun, and so far it has been a joyride.
 
Agreed. If Elon wanted to restore his credibility, he would provide simple, honest, factual statements like: "We delivered 3,000 Model 3's to customers last week."

Instead, he says things like "We are making 'great progress' and it is 'quite likely' that 'we will exceed 500 vehicles per day' (every day? just on one day?) across all Model 3 production zones (what the heck does 'across all zones' mean? Is that like the Q4 'extrapolated' burst rates on multiple stations?) this week". This is a needlessly complicated, forward-looking statement, and an expectation rather than a fact. It just sounds like it was carefully phrased for maximum deceptiveness, while maintaining just a shred of underlying truth for legal reasons in case the SEC comes calling.

If Elon were to start consistently going the simple, honest, factual route, everyone (except the fanatics) would believe him. Instead, he chooses the tricky leaked hype option.
Ahhhh...so let me get this straight. We incorrectly interpret what Elon says and it's his fault? We take an estimate as a promise and that's his fault? We take his efforts at focusing on the future of the company and its role in world and how he will bring it to pass and we call it frivolous and dream thinking?

Look, I don't support everything the man does. With that said though, when do we start taking some responsibility in all this? It's not his fault that we insist on trying to put his way of running a company into the mold of how it's always been.

Dan
 
No. Most are based on disagreements about valuation.

Don't try to backpedal already. The logic I laid out is clear and simple.

You said, "Shorts help to expose fraud".
All companies have shorts, therefore, all companies are fraudulent.

You can't say something, then try and pretend that you didn't say it. If you walk this back, then it just sounds like you're trying to parade around your own self righteousness, and you don't want to do that, do you?
 
What about three radars and training on the image directly ahead in the area of interest for the motion of the car? I know, a hardware change and the computation issue is amplified, but if they have "trained" the old system to look ahead of the most immediate car, why not more?
A camera (or two) with a narrow depth of field (large aperture) lenses will give you a snap on the resolution of the lines at a set distance. Should be easy to detect with a sharpness algorithm on the pixels directly ahead. You'll get range, and if you use two cameras with different focus points, you'll get closing speed. Add in a bit more info and E braking should be reliable.

Should be algorithmically fast and reliable. At least seems that way to me. You are getting trigger events from two sensor sources, so there is not a lot of sensor fusion math.
 
What Elon did is not arrogance. If you are a long time shareholder, you probably know some of those analysts have been trying for years to kill Tesla. When they ask questions, they are not really asking questions, they are trying to force Elon to say negative things about Tesla.

I've been in the investment industry for 40 years, held Series 7 and 63 brokerage licenses, traded stocks, bonds and options for the same period, but I obviously don't have as much experience as you, given your comments.

I've listened to quarterly analysts calls for decades on a wide range of stocks I've owned, since way before Tesla was a glimmer in anyone's eye, and questions from the analysts can be brutal. And if the person answers by deflecting or refusing the question, they will ask it again -- analysts can be relentless until they think they've gotten a solid answer. And, it's not the least bit unusual for another analysts to go back to a previous question if they didn't fully understand the answer, That's just how it works across the board, not just for Tesla.

The nature of Elon's responses were inappropriate.
 
thats a very narrow minded view i think. Shorts help to expose fraud and misuse of capital. Tesla has squandered billions and billions and has some 100k luxury cars to show for that do little to nothing for the environment on a big scale. If other, well functioning companies would have gotten that money, the world would be better for it.

Also, even if they do succeed with their plans, they are still wildly overvalued. And i like to profit from the bad decisions other investors make. Thats the fun, and so far it has been a joyride.

i personally think it's kind of strange how many short sellers are lately in this forum and how many short comments we lately see on sites like electrek. i don't mind hearing the opinions of short sellers if they are somewhat sophisticated. But stuff like "If other, well functioning companies would have gotten that money, the world would be better for it." is obviously crap. It's almost as if someone is paying you to spread negative sentiment.
 
Ahhhh...so let me get this straight. We incorrectly interpret what Elon says and it's his fault? We take an estimate as a promise and that's his fault? We take his efforts at focusing on the future of the company and its role in world and how he will bring it to pass and we call it frivolous and dream thinking?

Look, I don't support everything the man does. With that said though, when do we start taking some responsibility in all this? It's not his fault that we insist on trying to put his way of running a company into the mold of how it's always been.

Dan
It's not a question of blame. It's about explaining why the market does not believe him. His predictions are widely known to be overly optimistic - time and again, this has proven to be true. Nobody with an ounce of sense would believe his production ramp predictions. But most everyone would believe him if he communicated what has actually been accomplished.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zhelko Dimic
I've been in the investment industry for 40 years, held Series 7 and 63 brokerage licenses, traded stocks, bonds and options for the same period, but I obviously don't have as much experience as you, given your comments.

I've listened to quarterly analysts calls for decades on a wide range of stocks I've owned, since way before Tesla was a glimmer in anyone's eye, and questions from the analysts can be brutal. And if the person answers by deflecting the question they will ask it again -- analysts can be relentless until they think they've gotten a solid answer. That's just how it works across the board, not just for Tesla.

The nature of Elon's responses were inappropriate.

Doesn't mean much to me.
 
In fact, Jonas has been quite prescient in his Model 3 production estimates to date. Does anyone know whether he updated his latest predicted production numbers?
To answer my own question, I see that Jonas' 2018 Model 3 production estimate is now 112,380, reduced from 122,000 and change. That's less than 2200 per week, for a 52-week year. Seems surprisingly low.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: NicoV
No, no. It’s happy bears now. Remember, Tesla loses money on every vehicle they sell, so they’re losing money faster! ;)
thats a very narrow minded view i think. Shorts help to expose fraud and misuse of capital. Tesla has squandered billions and billions and has some 100k luxury cars to show for that do little to nothing for the environment on a big scale. If other, well functioning companies would have gotten that money, the world would be better for it.

Also, even if they do succeed with their plans, they are still wildly overvalued. And i like to profit from the bad decisions other investors make. Thats the fun, and so far it has been a joyride.

So like, Exxon or Koch Industries....

Like that right?:cool:

Fire Away!
 
What about three radars and training on the image directly ahead in the area of interest for the motion of the car? I know, a hardware change and the computation issue is amplified, but if they have "trained" the old system to look ahead of the most immediate car, why not more?
I think a combination of radar + camera is definitely possible, and 3 radars are not required: once a radar detects a large signal coming from a potential stationary object, and combine with camera figuring out which part of the forward picture is moving vs stationary, I think theoretically it should be able to tell where the stationary radar signal is coming from.

Training radar to look ahead of the 2nd car in front is a different problem and capability. The car immediately ahead blocks the camera's view, so no visual processing is possible, or needed. The 1st car also blocks a lot of radar signal from everything else, and only leave the radar signal from the car itself, and the signal from the 2nd car ahead that is reflected from the road surface under the 1st car. I suspect this actually simplifies the signal processing a lot, and makes it much easier to do than processing a radar signal from a far away stationary object.
 
If you believe that, I have a really nice bridge you might like to purchase.
This reminds me of the Andrea James discussion with Mark Travis from May 2013 after Tesla hit $100/sh, at 3:15, after Andrea said there is more growth in the stock, Mark said he has some swamp in Florida that he likes to sell to Andrea.


To me the shorts today sound just like the shorts over the years.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.