TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dakh]

MMD = Mid-Morning Dip

Mandatory

 

[JRP3]

Mandatory

Mid

 

[jhm]

I don't get it, what is so strange here? A month ago TSLA was under $300. Then there was a wave of anticipation of some serious good news. Then the good news turned out to be just delivering on what was promised to begin with, and price dropped down to pre-anticipation levels. I don't see anything new in this pattern. In fact I think there's some rational basis for it. There IS a chance of a materially important new information showing up (like China partnership), and some would be inclined to gamble on anticipation, and algos pick that up and amplify it.

Thinking a little longer term, last year's ATH was in anticipation of good M3 production ramp, that didn't happen. That materially affected Tesla's position, anticipated revenue is delayed by over half a year. $300 seems a fair price on basically nothing new showing up that would change the original $380 valuation, minus delay.

Yeah, I'm not getting your point. You seem to be saying that the price goes up with anticipation. Then when this anticipation is satisfied, the price goes back down to pre-anticipation levels. This pretty much negates that thing that was anticipated ever had any value to the stock.

We've just witnessed a 55% sequential growth in unit sales quarter over quarter. And yet $310 is just barely above where it stood 3 months ago. Anticipation of growth does not account for the fact that unprecedented growth has occurred and that much of the uncertainty of the expectation 3 months ago has been resolved. It just seems me that the 55% sequential growth ought to be worth more than 20%, at least worth 10% growth in valuation. That puts us in range of $330 to $360 conservatively.

BTW, it seems that bear have been having a field day picking at the 7 day run rate. This is easily a diversion from market recognizing the huge sequential growth that Tesla has in fact delivered. Perhaps by the time the ER comes out more conservative minded investors will recognize that the fundamentals are shifty in a dramatic way. But for now we are tangled up in "factory gate" and "burst rates".

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Do you have a link to the short seller giving up post? I kinda wanna read this

Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

Essentially gave up for Hail Mary puts.

 

[BrianZ]

Why involve Musk? Can't that plan work completely independently with the Pentaverate announcing their acquisition after it is too late?

Yes it could, but then Musk wouldn't know of it, and wouldn't be taunting shorts like he has been for the past 1-2 months.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Yes it could, but then Musk wouldn't know of it, and wouldn't be taunting shorts like he has been for the past 1-2 months.

Yes the wild card has always been Elon's Twitter antics. I notice he's been awfully quiet after Sunday though. Maybe he really thought that 5k a week was enough to trigger a short squeeze. If so then I think it's time for someone to take his Twitter privileges away, because it's over and it's time to stop tweeting.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I note that from June 23, 2017 through July 6, 2017, TSLA dropped around 75 points.

A rebound occurred, to a high of 385 on Sept 18, 2017, followed by a steep decline to 303 by November 6, 2017.

The volatility we see this holiday weekend is nothing new. I personally do not care if a short squeeze occurs. Although such an event might have entertainment value, a sharply high peak price is IMO unlikely to last long. I would much rather see a slow steamrolling of short sellers as the facts of Tesla’s steady production growth become undeniable.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

The mive after the shareholders’ meeting had no real justification so I think we will just revert to the previous trend.

Yes.

So Tesla wants to make sure that no one could even claim that a sale had effectively been done in Q2, for a car that left the factory in Q2, after being built to the owners' specification in Q2, with binding and non-refundable (partial) payment in Q2 and where the owner happened to take possession of the car a few days into Q3.

IRS: "Yes, but it doesn't matter that you gave the customer 30 days to make the final payment and it doesn't matter that the owner chose to not pick it up on your factory lot in Fremont, where the car was ready in Q2".

PS. I am only happy to be seen as too pessimistic...

I think the IRS will define sale as passage of title, irrespective of where the car is or how much has been paid for it.

 

[gene]

Article covers why the negativity about Tesla. You already know all this stuff but this article is excellent to forward to any of your friends who make fake news remarks to you about Tesla.

The Incessant Attacks On Tesla Stem From Many Sources | CleanTechnica

 

[CuriousSunbird]

And how many 3 orders converted to S or X? Probably about 10,000.

So you're saying that these model 3 to S/X switchers prevented a disastrous collapse in S/X demand? Without the switchers S/X deliveries would have fallen by about 13k (c. 30%) from H1 '17 instead of 3k (c.7%)?

 

[shortburn]

Elon announced to the world that they were going to be doing 5k at the end of Q2. Once he made that announcement, he was held to it, and the narrative that was promoted by the media was that Elon has made announcements before and has often missed them. If he missed the 5000 then it reflects poorly on his judgment skills.
There certainly would be incentive to cheat on that goal because it changes how the media treats the company.

Furthermore, I would debate that these goals "are not forced upon him". I would argue that while the specific number comes out of elon's mouth, if he were to proclaim that they were not producing enough in a month or year in the future it would lead to a reduction in the share price.
For instance he has said that they will be producing 6000 shortly. He is forced to claim a number that shows a reasonable rate of improvement. If he were to claim 5000 will be produced in october, the stock price would fall even more.

1. Doesn't match sp historically.
2. Why didn't they cheat Q1 to "reach" 2500/wk since it seems like it'd be even easier to do then to stockpile a couple hundred cars but instead the narrative is being spun now. Also I do think that its not emphasized enough that they actually did do over 2000/wk the following two weeks after Q1.
3. I doubt they would be so disingenuous and am of the mind that someone that makes such a claim should provide the evidence not the other way around where I can make whatever claim I want and you have to disprove me. An infinite amount of speculations/narratives can be made/told and its crazy to entertain all of these.

btw I think it is safe to say Elon has poor judgement when it comes to predicting when they will hit their goals and I would bet money he will be late on reaching goals in the future but that's nothing new.

 

[Open Interest]

MMD = Mid-Morning Dip

Thanks

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Why involve Musk? Can't that plan work completely independently with the Pentaverate announcing their acquisition after it is too late?

If it's acquiring existing shares as opposed to new issue (which would require Musk), it doesn't provide Tesla any new capital.

 

[AZRI11]

So you're saying that these model 3 to S/X switchers prevented a disastrous collapse in S/X demand? Without the switchers S/X deliveries would have fallen by about 13k (c. 30%) from H1 '17 instead of 3k (c.7%)?

Are you related to, I am curious yellow?

 

[NicoV]

You do realize that the GA4 "tent" is only the final portion of the Model 3 production line right? The majority of the car build is all done inside the main factory: stamping, body assembly/welding, painting, skateboard building, marriage of skateboard and body, etc.. So every Model 3 that comes off of GA4 has gone through the majority of it's life in the main factory.

Not to mention all of the Model S&X production lines.

Some good news that is overlooked is that this means that the (automated!) non GA4 Model 3 lines were responsible for 80% of the output, and increasing. Meaning that Tesla still sees lots of speedup opportunities in those lines. GA4 seems more and more of a quick and dirty temporary way to increase production (and thus margin) without dropping output when improvements to the non GA4 lines are made.
All the fuss about GA4 will be irrelevant, what we should really look at is the progress on the automated GA lines.

Edit: with Elon ‘alien dreadnought’ statements, does anybody really think that a manual GA line is a permanent thing?

 

[NicoV]

Everything I have read has said that this isn't the case. You have to order your Model S/X and put down a deposit, and then request a refund of your Model 3 reservation.

Indeed, that is how it went when I decided not to wait for my Model X reservation anymore and instead ordered a Model S.
Tesla said that they could apply the Model X reservation towards mynModel S order, that that it would take more time due to the manual interventions involved and that it was just easier to request a refund for My Model X reservation.

 

[mmd]

I’ve seen a lot of strange TSLA price action over the years, but Tesla meeting their 5k week/goal for Model 3 production and then TSLA losing basically 55 points from pre-market yesterday to close today has got to be one of the strangest.

I think you are missing the quotes in "meeting" a "5k for a week" (not 5k a week). You are also missing the 20% miss in deliveries vs. consensus. And continually declining S and X sales.

Is this the turning point in Tesla's history that investors no longer believe in the stunts pulled by Elon? Even uber bull Adam Jonas is saying "show me".

A normal company gives quarterly and annual guidance. Tesla tweets the burst rate for some blue moon week. Market doesn't care for these shenanigans anymore. What does all that mean?

PS: Only thing bothering me today is my account. After acquisition by Ameritrade, I can't find TSLA shares to short. I could be few tens of thousands richer today. Have to be content with a smaller short position in another account and put options.

 

[jhm]

So you're saying that these model 3 to S/X switchers prevented a disastrous collapse in S/X demand? Without the switchers S/X deliveries would have fallen by about 13k (c. 30%) from H1 '17 instead of 3k (c.7%)?

No, they simply filed into an order queue that was already sufficient. This increases the wait time in the queue which may moderated by a slower arrival time for other new order. That is, wait time and the arrival of new orders exist in an equilibrium such that whether reserveholders convert to an S or X it makes little different to wait times and deliveries.

 

[Remus]

No, they simply filed into an order queue that was already sufficient. This increases the wait time in the queue which may moderated by a slower arrival time for other new order. That is, wait time and the arrival of new orders exist in an equilibrium such that whether reserveholders convert to an S or X it makes little different to wait times and deliveries.

Ok apparently our short friends do not believe that Tesla was intentionally slowing delivery due to the funny tax credit thingy. Who are we to change their minds? I for one would be happy to buy shares from them.

 

[schonelucht]

OK, Regardless of the propriety of any thread, what is the statutory or regulatory basis of a waiver????

Is all you got:

IRS media relations specialist Anabel Marquez would only give AutoblogGreen a simple statement:

The list of vehicles posted [online] is current based on the requirements of various federal tax law provisions. As noted here, manufacturers must meet the certification and reporting requirements described in Notice 2009-89. To be listed on IRS.gov, the manufacturer must also provide the IRS with a disclosure waiver.
​

Can Ms Marquez cite any authority? (Does she work for Lois Lerner or John Koskinen?)

​

If I were American or living in the USA I would already long time AFP have sent a simpel freedom of Information request to the IRS.