TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Hey ya'll in the FUD gallery! Do some fact checking.

The 10Q is immaterial for the who knew what when discussion (regardless of applicability). It only covers the quarter that ended June 30th. Filing date does not matter.

Also, the deadline to file an 8-K is 4 business days, Tesla has untill next Monday!

SEC.gov | Form 8-K

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA my best guess and all it is just a super wild speculation that we could run up another $100 from here to $470 to $490s easy in short order I really don't care for the price as long as I get the direction and timing of the move right

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Loup Ventures' Gene Munster In A Note Wed. Evening Raises His View Of Odds Tesla Goes Private From 1 in 3 to 'A greater than 50% chance,' Believes It'll Take $25B-$30B In Financing, Sees 10% Chance $420 Bid Could Be Raised To Satisfy Current Investors

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Loup Ventures' Gene Munster In A Note Wed. Evening Raises His View Of Odds Tesla Goes Private From 1 in 3 to 'A greater than 50% chance,' Believes It'll Take $25B-$30B In Financing, Sees 10% Chance $420 Bid Could Be Raised To Satisfy Current Investors

What is Munster doing lol

What changed materially between yesterday and today that led him to suddenly revise this?

These ANaLYsTs are just guessing wildly now lol

 

[mongo]

This is exactly what I hope has been happening. I hope the moment after Elon made his announcement the "investors" have been accumulating as much and strategically as they can. And they do so till Friday and announce after lunch they have bought ~30% stake.
/wishful_thinking

I don't think it is wishful thinking. Concider the position of an investor backing the transition, you can either buy up shares now (previously) at sub $420, or wait and buy them at $420. Which would you do?

 

[beachbum77]

The going private investors have already purchased >50% of existing shares and retail investors grab the rest. No liquidity for shorts to close with. Non going private investors sell for multiples of the 420 price.

LOL...
You can't sell for "multiples of the $420 price". That is the market pricing. Those who are forced to sell cannot dictate who their shares are sold to. Shorts are welcome to buy them as much as anyone else.

But you seem confused on one aspect. Someone lent the shorts shares to be sold short. In order to recall those shares, the shorts must be able to buy replacement shares.

If you think all of the institutions are going to vote for this you are mistaken. There are those who cannot participate in private offerings due to liquidity issues. The tax consequences they would face in selling will be enormous.

 

[Curt Renz]

Loup Ventures' Gene Munster In A Note Wed. Evening Raises His View Of Odds Tesla Goes Private From 1 in 3 to 'A greater than 50% chance,' Believes It'll Take $25B-$30B In Financing, Sees 10% Chance $420 Bid Could Be Raised To Satisfy Current Investors

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Loup Ventures' Gene Munster In A Note Wed. Evening Raises His View Of Odds Tesla Goes Private From 1 in 3 to 'A greater than 50% chance,' Believes It'll Take $25B-$30B In Financing, Sees 10% Chance $420 Bid Could Be Raised To Satisfy Current Investors

Thanks for that information. Here's a link to Munster's full note at the Loup Ventures website: Loup Ventures

 

[brantse]

I don't think it is wishful thinking. Concider the position of an investor backing the transition, you can either buy up shares now (previously) at sub $420, or wait and buy them at $420. Which would you do?

True, but only to the degree that you begin absorbing the float. Anyone who is looking to invest to the tune of BILLIONS of dollars knows that they will very quickly start paying more for each subsequent share they try to purchase from the open market. That's why a takeover offer like this has to be attractive enough to appease a majority of the current shareholders, and done all at once.

 

[mongo]

LOL...
You can't sell for "multiples of the $420 price". That is the market pricing. Those who are forced to sell cannot dictate who their shares are sold to. Shorts are welcome to buy them as much as anyone else.

But you seem confused on one aspect. Someone lent the shorts shares to be sold short. In order to recall those shares, the shorts must be able to buy replacement shares.

If you think all of the institutions are going to vote for this you are mistaken. There are those who cannot participate in private offerings due to liquidity issues. The tax consequences they would face in selling will be enormous.

If I am the only one not wanting to convert to private Tesla and a short needs to cover, what is stopping me from selling at $2,000 or more?

I am not mistaken in the short's situation.
Short interest is 30+ million shares. They need either ITM option coverage or someone with shares to buy from. The short must buy the shares (at market) I don't have to sell them.

 

[Boomer19]

We know it's not just talk. The only interesting thing you said is that you thought the Board should have mentioned the going-private talks in the 10-Q. Evidence for this claim?

i’m not sure the 10-q requires future changes that are still in negotiation/not finalized.

once final, they should issue an SEC S-4

“The SEC form S-4 is submitted by companies going through an exchange offer and contains material information related to a merger or acquisition. The filing is needed by investors looking to make quick gains from mergers or acquisitions. Therefore, companies submitting SEC filing S-4 are required to disclose essential facts about their financial and operating activities”

10-q requirements:
https://www.sec.gov/files/form10-q.pdf

it doesn’t clearly state that ongoing negotiations about an exchange offer must be reported on a 10-q, but i’m not legal expert

 

[beachbum77]

Thanks for that information. Here's a link to Munster's full note at the Loup Ventures website: Loup Ventures

Nice recap. But the hurdle remains. Who is willing to put up $25-$30 billion or more for about 40% of a company that has never had an annual profit? By owning such a large percentage who will be calling the shots? They will surely demand BoD seats. With the resulting lack of financial visibility and accountability, and the reduction in liquidity I just do not see this happening.

 

[mongo]

True, but only to the degree that you begin absorbing the float. Anyone who is looking to invest to the tune of BILLIONS of dollars knows that they will very quickly start paying more for each subsequent share they try to purchase from the open market. That's why a takeover offer like this has to be attractive enough to appease a majority of the current shareholders, and done all at once.

Yes, which is why you accumulate in the open market beforehand.
Who is to say that all the trading that is going on is not being done purely with the virtual liquidity of previously shorted shares?
There are 176 million real shares and 30 million short generated shares out there. Is there a reason the backers could not have the 176* cornered? And if so, what happens when shorts try to cover when there aren't shorts to sell to them?

* anything over 147 million leaves the shorts without an exit.

 

[skitown]

Nice recap. But the hurdle remains. Who is willing to put up $25-$30 billion or more for about 40% of a company that has never had an annual profit? By owning such a large percentage who will be calling the shots? They will surely demand BoD seats. With the resulting lack of financial visibility and accountability, and the reduction in liquidity I just do not see this happening.

Did you see SpaceX landing and reusing orbital class rockets? Their investors did. I like their track record vs your talking points.

 

[mongo]

Not sure what you are getting at. His very first tweet about this shows it’s wasn’t a final decision.

Twitter

And his later tweet and company letter was not walking back.

Investor support is confirmed. Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I'm not going to lie, there are absolutely times when I wish some of these fake tweets were real.

r/wallstreetbets - Daddy Musk's response to the SEC

Sorry not sorry for linking to WSB

 

[beachbum77]

Not sure what you are getting at. His very first tweet about this shows it’s wasn’t a final decision.

Twitter

His first tweet ended with "funding secured". That takes it from a daydream he was having to a real possibility since he would have had to be in serious discussions with backers and signed letters of intent. That was what moved the stock. THAT is what also seems to have gotten the SEC's attention.

 

[beachbum77]

Did you see SpaceX landing and reusing orbital class rockets? Their investors did. I like their track record vs your talking points.

I like Tesla cars and they sell well. Has not made them a profitable company yet. Have you seen a financial report for SpaceX?

That is quite awesome that they can reuse rockets for satellite launches. But does it actually save them money in the long run?
As far as passenger travel, would you want to strap yourself into a used rocket? I will pass thanks.

 

[Remus]

LOL...
You can't sell for "multiples of the $420 price". That is the market pricing. Those who are forced to sell cannot dictate who their shares are sold to. Shorts are welcome to buy them as much as anyone else.

But you seem confused on one aspect. Someone lent the shorts shares to be sold short. In order to recall those shares, the shorts must be able to buy replacement shares.

If you think all of the institutions are going to vote for this you are mistaken. There are those who cannot participate in private offerings due to liquidity issues. The tax consequences they would face in selling will be enormous.

Sure some funds can not convert but don't pretend you know the percentage. Uber can be owned by many mutual funds.

You are assuming the number of shares that has to be sold by then far exceeds the number of shares sold short. Apparently you never doubted that because in your mind nobody in their right mind would not sell. Well you never doubted that Tesla will go bankrupt either. Apparently many people disagree.

 

[mau1010]

Beechbum77 gone forever.

 

[mongo]

I like Tesla cars and they sell well. Has not made them a profitable company yet. Have you seen a financial report for SpaceX?

That is quite awesome that they can reuse rockets for satellite launches. But does it actually save them money in the long run?
As far as passenger travel, would you want to strap yourself into a used rocket? I will pass thanks.

Because nothing says safety like a rocket built of non-flight proven parts. Ever test the SRB you are launching with?

Oh I forgot, you buy your cars before they get a shake down on the test track and only travel on the maiden test flight of airlines... and then you throw both away.

 

[roblab]

Nice recap. But the hurdle remains. Who is willing to put up $25-$30 billion or more for about 40% of a company that has never had an annual profit?

I am a non-investment type person; I leave that to my money manager. But it is silly to me that people can claim that Tesla has never had a profit, which is obviously just semantics, when everyone knows they've made tons of money (isn't that "profit'?) and plowed it back into the company, year after year. In 2006 when they started, I, along with a few dozen others, saw the first Roadster at Stanford. Tesla, Inc. was nothing at that point. No money, no buildings, no cars. They took every scrap of money not needed for payroll and equipment (used) and plowed it into a Toyota factory (used) and grew the company dollar by dollar. How un-American!!!! Where's my annual profit??!!

Unlike those other "companies" that have "annual profits" which pay for huge management payrolls, Musk took all those profits and his own money and built Tesla. Every year more product is built and sold and what you don't want to call profit is turned around and reinvested, and Tesla grows. And those of us who partnered with Musk's investment grow with it.

I don't have much of that stock, but I can guarantee you, I am willing to invest it in Tesla, that company that has "never had an annual profit" run by an some beginner who doesn't know how to manage.