TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

I also think shorts see little risk in hanging on. Their potential losses are now capped at $420.

 

[beachbum77]

IF Musk was lying.

How can he have "funding secured" if the BoD has not even formed a committee to research and address the proposal? He later tried to walk it back that "he" had not made a final decision yet on this attempt. That does not undo the actions in the stock price.

 

[beachbum77]

Actually the shorts stand to lose an unlimited amount. I think in the end they will collectively lose ~$117 billion and it won't take any convincing! They are already convinced.

LOL... Okay I'll bite. How does that happen?

 

[bdy0627]

ROFL. Where on earth did you read that? Please explain.

The only thing I see at this time is the possibility of a lot of investor lawsuits from both shorts and longs alike. Because if this is all just talk, a lot of longs were buying shares in the hopes of a $420 price or higher. If this is not a real deal the stock will tank and they will lose big. Those two words "funding secured" could end up being historical in nature.

I believe this is the first time I have put someone on the ignore list after 2 posts, and I waited 1 too long.

 

[Unpilot]

How can he have "funding secured" if the BoD has not even formed a committee to research and address the proposal? He later tried to walk it back that "he" had not made a final decision yet on this attempt. That does not undo the actions in the stock price.

Place your bet...it is easy...your sure of your position so put some money down.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I very much doubt this will happen. The SEC will be in contact with the company and would only do this if the company was blowing them off for a long period of time.

I thought the same thing but the WSJ is reporting differently.

 

[beachbum77]

You act like no other company has been valued without a P/E ratio. Most every company at some point in their existence had to be valued without a P/E ratio.

Are you kidding? Where did I say that? That happens all the time. We all know that. But once it does have a P/E the price will adjust up or down accordingly.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

How can he have "funding secured" if the BoD has not even formed a committee to research and address the proposal? He later tried to walk it back that "he" had not made a final decision yet on this attempt. That does not undo the actions in the stock price.

Funding secured does not mean funding accepted. He could have a binding offer of funding.

 

[mongo]

LOL... Okay I'll bite. How does that happen?

The going private investors have already purchased >50% of existing shares and retail investors grab the rest. No liquidity for shorts to close with. Non going private investors sell for multiples of the 420 price.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA $420 is extremely unlikely to be the ceiling
I bet SP exceeds $420 by a wide margin over the next XXXXXXX trading days
This stock is now eminently tradeable
more pain for shorts coming tomorrow, in fact, a world of pain, the ultimate short sellers' remorse
keep on watching

 

[mongo]

It means longs were doing a lot more selling than shorts were buying shares to cover. If buyers had confidence in this move to going private the shares would be around $400 or more. When a buyout attempt fails the shares usually tank for a time at least. So I think some longs see this as a great exit point locking in their long-term gains. I also think shorts see little risk in hanging on. Their potential losses are now capped at $420.

@Toolsmack
If 19 million shares are sold short and 20 million shares are bought to cover along with 5 million in non-short activity, the day's numbers would be 25 million shares traded and 1 million decrease in short position...

 

[Navin]

$TSLA $420 is extremely unlikely to be the ceiling
I bet SP exceeds $420 by a wide margin over the next XXXXXXX trading days
This stock is now eminently tradeable
more pain for shorts coming tomorrow, in fact, a world of pain, the ultimate short sellers' remorse
keep on watching

 

[brantse]

Loup Ventures' Gene Munster In A Note Wed. Evening Raises His View Of Odds Tesla Goes Private From 1 in 3 to 'A greater than 50% chance,' Believes It'll Take $25B-$30B In Financing, Sees 10% Chance $420 Bid Could Be Raised To Satisfy Current Investors

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Loup Ventures' Gene Munster In A Note Wed. Evening Raises His View Of Odds Tesla Goes Private From 1 in 3 to 'A greater than 50% chance,' Believes It'll Take $25B-$30B In Financing, Sees 10% Chance $420 Bid Could Be Raised To Satisfy Current Investors

 

[TrendTrader007]

13s14 seconds ago
$TSLA today was simply a pause
a calm before the storm
bear trap if you will
$420 is an illusion a mirage to lull shorts into a false sense of complacency
this stock will blow thru $420 in short order like there is no tomorrow

 

[bdy0627]

Whew! I just caught up on this thread. I was about 40 pages behind yesterday. What a crazy couple of days! Very very glad to have this resource at a time like this.

 

[oneday]

Are you kidding? Where did I say that? That happens all the time. We all know that. But once it does have a P/E the price will adjust up or down accordingly.

WRONG.
"Once it has a P/E it will be adjusted up or down accordingly. This is wrong."
If Tesla Earns One dollar in q3. Tesla's valuation will have nothing to do with it's P/E.

Please just go away troll. You have ruined the last 5 pages of this thread.

Edit: Tesla shouldn't be valued with P/E until it stops growing >25% per year. Anyone that doesn't understand this is a fool. Looking at how much money the shorts have lost in the last 6 years proves there is a lot of you out there.

 

[Remus]

Remus, buying a few shares of SpaceX is lightyears away from funding $30-50 billion to take a company like Tesla private. First off, small investors do not qualify to be participants. You need to be an accredited investor. That is why Fidelity set up a special fund.

Read up on the latest news. Most of the biggest players are claiming to have no knowledge of this effort. Only Softbank says that Musk approached them back months ago and they turned him down. Even the Saudis claim to have no more interest then what they have acquired since March.

Clearly you have no clue what's the requirements for buying Space X shares.

Of course that news has been rehashed so many times as the last straw of the shorts. Have you guys any logic? There are more than 100 billionaires in California alone, and many VCs Have anyone also contacted the MAs in China about this? Have you even heard about the VC in China backed by movie stars? What about people like Richard Branson?

 

[oneday]

The going private investors have already purchased >50% of existing shares and retail investors grab the rest. No liquidity for shorts to close with. Non going private investors sell for multiples of the 420 price.

This is exactly what I hope has been happening. I hope the moment after Elon made his announcement the "investors" have been accumulating as much and strategically as they can. And they do so till Friday and announce after lunch they have bought ~30% stake.
/wishful_thinking

 

[Quassinoid]

I wouldn't usually post anything from Cramer, but this piece actually makes some interesting claims, especially the part about the legality of disclosing the possible move to take $TSLA private. Longs will enjoy this piece.

Jim Cramer: 4 Reasons Why You Should Not Short Tesla

 

[beachbum77]

I can see 4 basic szenarios:

1) There is no funding.
The stock and Elon will get destroyed.
But the company fundamentals wont be affected beyond financing, which shouldn't be a problem if Q3, Q4, ... are positive. So new Investors might be able to get in at a bargain after the bloodbath.

2) Board denies request.
Because they think staying public is the better path into the future.
Then we're back at the state prior to the announcement, minus the stock equivalent of a CEO getting reigned in by his board..
Company fundamentals are unaffected.

3) shareholders vote No
Because the majority thinks the stock is worth more than 420.-
And they can't hold private tsla due to broker constraints or liquidity concerns.
This should still put a confidence floor at 420.- because 50%+ think below that price is a good buy.

4) shareholders vote Yes
All shorts get a margin call.
35m shares (assuming no covering till vote) can get out above 420.-
Or tesla could raise up to 20% new equity (14B!) without needing a single new shareholder!!
If more want to get out, they'll do so at a guaranteed 420.-

Any guesses on the respective probabilities?

I would go with
10%
10%
70%
10%

You overlooked one key problem. Many of the big institutions have owned their shares for years and bought in under $100. The tax consequences of having to sell the shares because they cannot participate in private offerings could be enormous. That is what a vote would have to determine. For un-accredited small investors with no choice but to sell, again taxes could wallop them.