Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yup. How else would you surf the tsnami of hurt? Cheers!
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Good start to the day
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Pre-Market Trading
$361.90
*
9.45
2.68
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Pre-Market Trading
$361.90
*
9.45
2.68
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
The question of the day will be if the announced board meeting next week will have a positive impact or if more FUD spinning will rule the day and bring the price back down. I need to stock up on popcorn...I'm running out. LOL!Good start to the day
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Pre-Market Trading
$361.90
*
9.45
2.68
Dan
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
It's a good thing then that future growth will be organic (funded by positive cash flow) and possibly by issuing new shares sometime in the future.
sundaymorning
Active Member
O’leary: if I were shorting I’d be sweating bullets.
Kevin O'Leary: If I were short Tesla, I'd be sweating bul...
Video has good content. It turns out he has a Model X and loves it.
Kevin O'Leary: If I were short Tesla, I'd be sweating bul...
Video has good content. It turns out he has a Model X and loves it.
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The continuous drumbeat of "but what if he's lying and manipulating the markets?" that they'd never say about any other CEO :Þ
If some but not all longs who have lent shares to shorts recall their shares when it is time to vote on the proposal, that would cause one smaller squeeze event.
If the vote goes through, then those who did not recall to vote would then recall, causing a second, also smaller squeeze event.
Those two spread out events would dilute the squeeze, compared to a single event.
In conclusion:
All longs who have lent shares to shorts should recall their shares when it is time to vote, to maximize the effect of the squeeze, or no?
sundaymorning
Active Member
Once the stock shoots up beyond $420 private buyers will likely have to raise their offer price. The beauty of this is that once the price is above $420, we’ll know exactly where the floor will be and don’t have to worry too much about a pullback below $420. If it dips below then there will be a new offer. It’s checkmate, shorts.
Again, no. Any institutional investors who can't take part in a private Tesla have an effectively limitless amount of shares that they need to get rid of. They have the choice:
A) $420, during the buyout; or
B) Greater than $420, selling to shorts
So obviously, they want (B). The problem is that their supply vastly outpaces the number of shorts that needs to cover. Now, if they could all coordinate their actions, they could say, "Okay, none of us sell until the stock hits $600, then we'll each sell X% of our holdings". Except that they can't do that. That'd be illegal. So it's a free, open market, where supply outstrips demand.
If party A tries to sell at $600, party B is going to look at that and think, "I don't want to be stuck with all my stock sold at $420; I'm selling at $599." To which party A will look at that and think, "Well, I don't want to be stuck with all of my stock at $420; I'm selling at $598". And so on and so on. It's a race that will resolve itself virtually instantly; indeed, it'll never get to $600, or anywhere close, because everybody knows how this is going to play out. Their stock will sell only marginally over the $420 price point because they have more to get rid of than shorts need to buy, and nobody wants to get stuck with only getting $420 for all of their stock.
If it wasn't for investors that have to liquidate, I'd agree that it could go well over $420. But because they exist, and because they surely well outnumber shorts that need to cover, I can't envision this massively-over-$420 short squeeze that some here are envisioning.
And to anyone just flagging this "Disagree" (which, BTW, we really shouldn't have. Why exactly do we have "negative like" buttons here? That just creates animosity), that's not good enough, you have to explain why an institution which has to liquidate all of their stock, faced with other institutions doing the same, would just sit around and let others undercut their price target and get stuck with all of their stock at only $420.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Only one question that may invalidate your theory: On the shareholder voting, doesn't the shareholders need to have their stock in their possession to be able to vote?
If yes, then they need to request most of the 34M shares shorted. THAT might trigger the squeeze. Because shorts need to buy the shares back for the lenders.
The $420 sale buyout will act just as a price floor AFTER the squeeze...
Edit: At the buyout time, and if a squeeze really occurred, most probably the all situation needed to be reevaluated
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. The problem is that their “ the institutions that need to sell” supply vastly outpaces the number of shorts that needs to cover
I do not understand where you obtain your confidence in this claim
The number of shorts , I understand are a known , but the institutions that need to sell?
I do not understand where you obtain your confidence in this claim
The number of shorts , I understand are a known , but the institutions that need to sell?
Your $420.01 potential scenario is just that, potential (and narrow, IMO), like many others. You're ignoring the effect that timing and a number of potential events can have on price and liquidity... What happens if the vote takes place after Q3 (not unlikely)? What happens if Q3 production numbers are as guided or better? (probably released on the 2nd/3rd Oct). The longer the vote takes to take place, the more uncertainty there's on the price. My bet, as a bull, is that the numbers will be as guided: That could have upward pressure on the price.
Not to mention FOMO between different institutional agents: Can you discard other offers (some hostile, other fake, other genuine) taking place between now and the voting? There's a lot of cash there looking for good investments. And believe it or not, Tesla is on the radar of smart money. All the FUD and unwanted attention may have steered some of them away.
Also, as mentioned by @ggr, no fund manager want to look silly at the end of the year losing an opportunity to profit from the potential squeeze (my words). The most conservative may want to play safe, but these would never invest in Tesla...
If for different reasons, the market ends up considering that Tesla shares are worth more than $420, as mentioned by Ross Gerber, it will be Pandora's box. It could stay there until privatisation, last for 1 hour, 1 day, 1 month, ... Who knows...
In any case, I'd consider it unwise discarding the price can reach above $420.01 or over $1000 for hours/days, the more time until the vote, the more likely. The same as discarding it can plummet temporarily. I'm preparing for both scenarios and for the mild ones.
They'll only hang onto their stock to vote it if they think that they can actually derail the decision to go private. If it seems that there's a chance anyone could actually derail the decision, then there won't be a big short squeeze. This scenario only applies in the case where institutions are optimistic about their ability to stop privatization but shorts are pessimistic about that. Given that shorts always assume the worst about Tesla and resist covering at every turn, I seriously doubt this.
Agree with Robertj
1) You have NO idea how many shares that are currently owned by institutions will not be able to participate.
2) The market is far from perfect ... there will be an imbalance .... on which side, who knows? One hell of a gamble for shorts with little chance of any payoff.
3) Even at $420 ... that is a lot of hurt for a stock that has been shorted for a long time ..... it's becoming painfully obvious to me that shorts need to really think about the risk/reward here.
4) In all honesty ... I have no freaking idea what is going to happen. We have a long way to go before this actually comes to fruition and I'm personally worried about govt regulators coming in if foreign entities decide to backstop the financing. Obviously, this current administration has made clear it's not friendly to technology leaving the country.
Cheers to the longs
1) You have NO idea how many shares that are currently owned by institutions will not be able to participate.
2) The market is far from perfect ... there will be an imbalance .... on which side, who knows? One hell of a gamble for shorts with little chance of any payoff.
3) Even at $420 ... that is a lot of hurt for a stock that has been shorted for a long time ..... it's becoming painfully obvious to me that shorts need to really think about the risk/reward here.
4) In all honesty ... I have no freaking idea what is going to happen. We have a long way to go before this actually comes to fruition and I'm personally worried about govt regulators coming in if foreign entities decide to backstop the financing. Obviously, this current administration has made clear it's not friendly to technology leaving the country.
Cheers to the longs
You think Q3 would have pushed the natural price on TSLA to over $420? No, the shorts just would have gone to "It's a one time thing! Totally not sustainable!" (and would have rattled off a (true) list of things that Tesla did in this quarter to be profitable that can't sustain a company indefinitely). And even if this wasn't the case? Then a buyout at $420 would have clearly been a nonstarter, and the price target would have to go up, or the whole concept aborted.
That's exactly the point. A fund manager will "look silly" if they're stuck holding all of their stock at $420 rather than undercutting "whatever the current going price is" to sell at higher than $420. And this applies to all parties. Which means a race to the bottom. The only way to prevent a race to the bottom is coordination of their selling activity. Which is illegal.
Limitless?
Show the numbers, please.
+30M owed shares is a hard number.,
I find it hard to believe there are 30 millions shares that can't or do not want to be part of accelerated 1T story.
They also know that once out there is no way back in.
Anyone out stays out. They largely missed on SpaceX and are missing on boring, AI, etc. Tesla was their chance to buy into elon.
We are to believe that thjey will let that go at mere 420? That is not even 1% of EndGameTesla.
Or is this just another short bait?
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