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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Was listening to it again and all that comes to my mind:

a) Elon has changed significantly since the last interviews (publicly held) to the negative -> more stressed, tired and depressed / doesnt have any more good answers, laughs seldom, he just sits there and answers long questions from Joe without enthusiasm, quite depressing to see. Watch yourself then you know what I mean.

b) Elon is deeply concerned about something in his life and distracted - whatever it is (I am guessing SEC investigations, lawsuits, TESLA etc.) I guess there is something bothering him really hard currently.

I think he's think about his life and family.
For a guy like Elon (and we had extensive proof in these years) losing a significant other is very important: he gets depressed and when he gets depressed *surviving* a 120 hour-workweek is pure hell. He loses meaning and a sense of purpose. When I get depressed I binge-watch tv series on the couch for whole weekends, and instead he needs to make the impossible ramping up the best car that the world has seen in the last 50 years.
Oh, and managing a rocket company.
 
Was listening to it again and all that comes to my mind:

a) Elon has changed significantly since the last interviews (publicly held) to the negative -> more stressed, tired and depressed / doesnt have any more good answers, laughs seldom, he just sits there and answers long questions from Joe without enthusiasm, quite depressing to see. Watch yourself then you know what I mean.

b) Elon is deeply concerned about something in his life and distracted - whatever it is (I am guessing SEC investigations, lawsuits, TESLA etc.) I guess there is something bothering him really hard currently. He does not seem relaxed and comfortable, something is going on behind scenes. Even tough Joe has never actually attacked him with heavy topics like the thai diver, the private buyout or the SEC investigation or the lawsuits - still - he does not feel comfortable and cannot laugh about Joe's jokes. There is something going on in his private life or at Tesla.

For me, the interview was an absolute negative and Elon should have not made this interview in this mood. It just showed a "broken Elon Musk" and this is not what shareholders want to see. He is still alive - yes - but he truly seems to be depressed and concernced about something deeply. This is an alarm signal for many investors.

I expect a selling off until we get better news to 250 - 260$. I do not see that Elon's current mental status is just temporarly - it seems to be more deep - but I wish he could just come back to his previous energy and forget all the misery he was put through (and also made himself through).

Scenarios that might happen in the coming weeks/months:

a) Elon officialy stepping back from TESLA, giving up CEO position (pressure from the Board) but stays within TESLA as Chairman of the Board and visioner

b) SEC investigation settling down or hardening up - depending on the conversation with Musk. I guess the investigation will settle down.

c) Ongoing lawsuits: There will be more pressure from investors and also long institutional investors that will not tolerate his behaviour forever and will ask for answers over his mental status.

Dude needs a vacation. Take a few months off Elon. Tesla will survive your absence. Who knows, it may even flourish.
 
It's legal (he asked), didn't even inhale, and it lasted 3 seconds. Move on.
I'm much more worried how tired and sad he was. MKBHD's interview was much more enthusiastic:
I bet Elon liked him more, Marques understands tech, while Joe Rogen is certainly smart but has this arrogant/outgoing/bro attitude that's sort of anti-Musk.
Elon didn't seem at ease all the time.

All in all I liked it: raw, sincere Elon is best Elon.

You nailed it, that's exactly what happened. I'm glad there's somebody that can understand the real nature of this guy.
Elon in private is the same as in public, differently from any other executive. Do we want to talk about what Tim Cook does in private?
No we don't I can guarantee that.
 
Okay, I’m pissed. A CEO does not smoke weed during a live interview! What one does in private is their own business, so long as it doesn’t hurt others. In public, that’s another story.

I’ve never thought it before, but it’s time for someone else to take over (JB) and let Elon solve problems behind the scenes. Pedo guy, boring boneheaded questions, now this. Just too much noise, too much drama. I’m sick of it.

He's clearly under enough stress that he just doesn't give a f***. Which is not good, though I've been there. I see why he wanted the company to go private. Having redirected all of the attacks on the company into attacks on him personally, he's bad PR at the moment.

Tesla's still on track to make piles of money. But this is why you have to be very careful about margin.
 
Let's recall the actual sequence of events.
  • The whole sequence started out with Musk asking, "Is that a joint?" Just like your average hardcore pothead who doesn't know what a joint looks like.
  • After a reminder that it's legal in California, Musk hesitantly takes it, examines it, then takes a tiny puff, then shakes his head no.
  • Comments start filling up the Youtube thread from actual pot smokers complaining:
  • OZGUN ST-PIERRE
  • Dudeeee wtf he didn’t inhale


    tg300050

    he didnt inhale


    Samuel Gobrecht

    +OZGUN ST-PIERRE some people just dont like how it makes them feel


    Макс Ветер

    Obviously he doesn't know how to smoke


    NO T H O T S

    NOOOO ****ING WAY


    Geo Hurtado

    Inhale!!!!

  • Topic changes back to cars.
  • Later, topic changes back to pot. The conversation is, to quote:
    • Joe: Is that bad for you? It's legal. It's government approved.
    • Musk: I'm not a regular smoker of weed.
    • Joe: How often do you smoke it?
    • Musk: Almost never.
    • Joe: Mm.
    • Musk: I mean, I don't actually notice any effect.
    • (topic detours to Buddhist monks taking acid, before getting back on the topic of weed)
    • Musk: You know... I know a lot of people like weed... and that's fine. But I don't find that it's very good for productivity.
    • Joe: For you.
    • Musk: Not for me.
    • Joe: Yeah, I would imagine that for someone like you it's not. For someone like you, it'd be more like a cup of coffee.
    • Musk: Actually it's more like the opposite of a cup of coffee. Like a cup of coffee in reverse.
    • Joe: Weed is?
    • Musk: Yeah
    • Joe: No, I was saying you would like more, more what would be beneficial to you would be like coffee.
    • Musk: I like to get things done, I like to be useful. That's one of the hardest things to do.
OMG, pillory him!
I completely agree with everything you say. My point is that unfortunately the rest of the world isn't going to see it that way. The media is going to crucify him for this and completely ignore/distract from all the genius he said and discussed. Right or wrong (I say wrong) there is no room for error as far as the bears, trolls and press are concerned. He just gave them all the ammunition they need to drive the market further down instead of up on all the great financial estimates that are out. In the end, Tesla will certainly overcome all of this. Unfortunately, in my opinion, it's disasterous in the short term.

I hate that I feel this way.

Dan
 
He def needs to recharge somehow... BUT, overall I was actually encouraged by the interview. There are lots of instances of his outside the box brilliance. He's transparent, and honest, and admitted mistakes on Twitter. To many he will have come over as super-likable-for-a-genius. It's clear the last year has been hell. A year to match 2008. But his deep passion for Tesla, and the desire to create machines people fall in love with, came over loud and clear. The weed hit, and conversation after it actually increased my confidence that this is not a meaningful part of his life. I think that will be storm in a teacup. Much more important is that he lets go of the twitter temper tantrums, and from the sound of this, he's committed to trying to do that. As for the comment about how hard it is to keep a car company alive. I truly don't think he'd be saying that if didn't believe he's past the worst. Remember, he was only going to do this interview when Model 3 prod problems solved. Stock will initially drop today, but I predict we may be near the low...
 
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