TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Buddyroe]

This price movement just makes ZERO sense to me. When Tesla misses terribly, but Musk promises big things "in the future", I brace to get killed. Then, in a total surprise to me, the SP moves up.

Now this time, when I saw the delivery numbers, I was like, "whoa! we could be pushing $330 today!".

And, of course, we're down.

I have some spare change. Think I'm going to pick up some of these cheap shares. That way, when earnings are released and blow every one away, I can take an 8% loss right away.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I couldn't help but laugh at the Fox Business News video with "breaking news" of Tesla's deliveries. So, the breaking news was about the deliveries and production numbers (the host stated the deliveries number was 83,500) and then asked, "Michael" for his thoughts on this. Did the idiot elaborate ANY about his thoughts as they pertain to the subject of the "breaking news"? NOPE! He started down some tangent about electric producers not being able to produce enough electricity to support the cars!!

He stated, "We've made tremendous investments in the electronic vehicle sector.......what we're finding, ironically, is the brakes on this program [program?] is the infrastructure to support electric vehicles."

He's referring to charging networks. It's actually BS. The problem is currently the supply of vehicles.

 

[mspohr]

First you need to do some research to see if you can find another company that hasn't yet to be proven to be manipulative.

I use Vanguard. I've found that the advice from most advisors is useless sales hype. I don't get unsolicited advice from Vanguard to buy the hot stock of the week.

 

[Cobos]

Lutz now claiming, all other EV producers can sell their EV's at a loss and make it up on their truck sales, which Tesla can't.

Someone needs to hand him a clue.

But he is right. All other EV producers are selling them at a loss, and some of them are making it up with SUV/truck sales. Just ask BMW, Audi, GM etc. Tesla can't do that because then they need to sell vehicles at a loss first. Not to mention all these others still can't match Tesla 5 years later, hence the e-tron.

 

[X Fan]

Things I'm going to be watching for in Q4 (signs of confidence about their capital position - e.g. "non-critical" investments / that which isn't essential to their core profit-making business at present):

* Increased rate of supercharger deployment?
* Increased hiring at Giga 2?
* Increased Giga 2 output (solar deliveries)?
* Increased rate of solar roof development on Giga 1?

I would add "an increase in Powerpack and Powerwall deliveries", but it's Panasonic that's really the limiter on those.

Things I'm looking forward to in Q4:

* Eurospec unveiling
* Model Y unveiling? We know they don't plan to start tooling until (Q2?) next year, but they have to unveil (and collect reservation money ) at some point before that. A positive Q3 report would be just the momentum they need going into that.

I would add to your list:
— investment in additional service locations/staff
— investment in body shops

 

[emir-t]

Help me TMC. I bought my first ever option during last week's SEC FUD. Paid 835 for it and Monday morning I was up somewhere between 1600-1800. Decided to stick for the production numbers so I could maybe be 2000+ in profit. I came close to that this morning but now I'm lower than yesterday with my lone sell order waiting at the top. Probably will trigger if we hit around 317-318 today. Should I sell right now at whatever market price and just thank for the 1400 profit? or wait? Profit is profit but there's a big difference still. Also if I don't sell today I get hit in the guts again with time decay. Will probably start getting IV decay as well. Expiration is 10/19. It's just too stressful to call peak profit...

 

[Bobbyducati]

looks like amateur (1.5) hour is about over. lets go!

 

[jhm]

It's not just MMD. We've got active measures news nullification. Bears are desperate to spin the news and to push down price to signal "market disappointment."

The only defense is to keep buying. Buy with the knowledge that Tesla has had a major kick-ass quarter.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Help me TMC. I bought my first ever option during last week's SEC FUD. Paid 835 for it and Monday morning I was up somewhere between 1600-1800. Decided to stick for the production numbers so I could maybe be 2000+ in profit. I came close to that this morning but now I'm lower than yesterday with my lone sell order waiting at the top. Probably will trigger if we hit around 317-318 today. Should I sell right now at whatever market price and just thank for the 1400 profit? or wait? Profit is profit but there's a big difference still. Also if I don't sell today I get hit in the guts again with time decay. Will probably start getting IV decay as well. Expiration is 10/19. It's just too stressful to call peak profit...

Sell. You can buy another, longer dated one if you think the price will continue to rise. Always take profits with short dated options after a major news release and the accompanying volatility drop.

 

[Bobbyducati]

Help me TMC. I bought my first ever option during last week's SEC FUD. Paid 835 for it and Monday morning I was up somewhere between 1600-1800. Decided to stick for the production numbers so I could maybe be 2000+ in profit. I came close to that this morning but now I'm lower than yesterday with my lone sell order waiting at the top. Probably will trigger if we hit around 317-318 today. Should I sell right now at whatever market price and just thank for the 1400 profit? or wait? Profit is profit but there's a big difference still. Also if I don't sell today I get hit in the guts again with time decay. Will probably start getting IV decay as well. Expiration is 10/19. It's just too stressful to call peak profit...

id wait this out a few more hours and have an exit strategy in place for today. if you're worried about locking in profits just get rid of it now.

 

[replicant]

Correct. That's the job of the headline writer, the sales manager of journalism.

It's why in general you should _never_ judge journalists by the headlines on their articles. But that's in the real world, and this is an investment thread.

Are journalists legally forbidden to complain publicly about the headlines that make their articles misleading? If not, why don't they say a thing about this practice that ruins their work, their personal reputation and the future of journalism?

 

[Tslynk67]

Oh FFS...

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Lutz is a moron
maybe he should actually know the facts about what is saying before trying to say it?

 

[Bobbyducati]

Oh FFS...

View attachment 340049

ignore this turd.

 

[AndyH]

I couldn't help but laugh at the Fox Business News video with "breaking news" of Tesla's deliveries. So, the breaking news was about the deliveries and production numbers (the host stated the deliveries number was 83,500) and then asked, "Michael" for his thoughts on this. Did the idiot elaborate ANY about his thoughts as they pertain to the subject of the "breaking news"? NOPE! He started down some tangent about electric producers not being able to produce enough electricity to support the cars!!

He stated, "We've made tremendous investments in the electronic vehicle sector.......what we're finding, ironically, is the brakes on this program [program?] is the infrastructure to support electric vehicles."

I couldn't help but thinking of the moving goal posts cartoon we've seen here quite often. Let's skip past the incredible production numbers (which this guy probably at one point said could never be done) and now talk about how there's no infrastructure to support EVs.

The host sort of made a under-her-breath comment and quickly went to another panelist who said, "in terms of these numbers.....". Wow!! Someone who understood what the "breaking news" about.

The butt-hurt of the shorts and haters is so glaringly obvious. They don't realize how they're making fools of themselves.

Yeah, Tesla should really build some sort of electric network for charging electric cars. It's really sad that they've been burning cash all these years. I wonder what stupid things they've wasted it on. They should have invested in stuff like this charging network instead. Really sad.

 

[NikeWings]

They say they are executing that play well. I believe them for the most part. In a few years they will have potential higher market share in China and other nearby areas.

IMO it's better than 'well'.

First there was the element of surprise, right out of the Art of War, announcing the 500,000 vehicle p.a. giganews along with a show of local government support and potential funding. That deal took significant time to plan, structure and negotiate. (And let's add retain, given all of the US political crud). Then, there was/is the perpetual noise, drama and FUD....enough to influence if not drown the ambitions of most companies. While there have been some stumbles and unfortunate loss of talent through these pressures (and some overhang remains), there is an insistent drive-forward mindset underneath Musk that is not halting. This team is woefully underestimated and obviously does not care about notoriety. They are laser focused. And now, guess what folks, we're accelerating the China build even though many of you don't think we can fund our payroll.

 

[mspohr]

Carmakers brace for shocks as electrified future looms
Paris auto show. It's starting to sink in that they're sinking.

 

[JoaoD]

"We continue to forecast a Model 3 launch at the very end of 2018 with 60k units in 2019 and 130k units in 2020."
"Jonas forecasts Tesla will deliver 8,000 Model 3s in Q1, 24,000 in Q2, 32,000 in Q3 and 46,000 in Q4".
"Tesla Inc.’s third-quarter deliveries were expected to be strong, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note, adding that even bears had expected an “unusually strong” show."

So the same guy that predicts Tesla will only sell 60k Tesla Model 3s in the entire 2019 year, who also expect Tesla would deliver 32k Model 3's this quarter is not impressed that Tesla delivered more than 50k and says that even bears were expecting this.
And these are the kind of people media listens to, that lie and manipulate everyone at their will and always get unpunished. These are the so called professional analysts, that are paid to do this job.
Do better than the professionals, take care investing your money based on this analysts.

 

[jhm]

Lutz is a moron
maybe he should actually know the facts about what is saying before trying to say it?

Somewhere a memory impaired community is looking for Bob.

 

[derhelddestages]

Guess stock is down on the lack of information regarding demand for Model 3 (order rate), target production rate in Q4, as well as no reiteration of financial guidance. They included these pieces of information in earlier delivery reports and (if I remember correctly) said they will continue to do so for the rest of the Model 3 production ramp.

Not really a big deal, but it's a little surprising. I m guessing it is, because Elon doesn't care about the shorts anymore, knowing that the company will be fine anyways, so he doesn't see the need to fight them with numbers all the time. After all, time will prove him right.

It could very well be, that everything is fine, and we will see that when the Q3 report is presented.