TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[BenPrice]

Ooo this is going to be a fun, violent high volume day.

Imma predict 277 SP at close.

 

[Fact Checking]

Sudden jump up, while Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all tank further. What can it all mean?

It's TSLA specific early trading price action: significant volume of several ten thousand shares (which is large in early trading), and several transactions not just a single one:

• Some big short might have connected the dots and covered? Slow thinkers they are, but at $270 they are still getting a pretty nice deal IMHO.
• Or one of the Wall Street analysts gave in and released a TSLA upgrade, on which news early access clients are now trading?
• Or some big Tesla news incoming?

But I could be misreading it all ...

Edit: looks like the second option.

 

[Tslynk67]

Could be this?

 

[gora321]

I see this in Europe. Someone starts to buy and there is big reaction (fear).

 

[Fact Checking]

Mesmerizing "Seeing the world in autopilot v9" video released today:

 

[Fact Checking]

Could be this?

"Tesla likely to report 'major FCF beat' wednesday: new street"​

BTW., am I the only one who finds that kind of analyst behavior abhorrent: it's unlikely that they came out with that conclusion just now...

The much more probable explanation is that they knew it shortly after the Q3 delivery report, but were sitting on their report, to release it as close to the earnings release as possible - to maximize buying opportunities and to allow their own firm to reverse or go neutral position, should they be short. The report was now forced out by Tesla's surprise 48-hours release of earnings.

Pretty solid data point against the notion that Wall Street analysts are 'independent' of the prop trading arms of their respective institutions...

 

[Ameliorate]

ughh this is upsetting. Had some money available (10x) to invest around end of Oct. Just a mere couple thousand now and just sold off a few 270 calls and bought 2 puts EOD with the market looking gross just for overnight (should've been a good play..). Positioned so poorly for this surprise ER. After waiting years for a big pop...the FOTM is real. GL to you all though, you definitely deserve it for all you've been through in this stock if it does pop.

 

[KarenRei]

ughh this is upsetting. Had some money available (10x) to invest around end of Oct. Just a mere couple thousand now and just sold off a few 270 calls and bought 2 puts EOD with the market looking gross just for overnight (should've been a good play..). Positioned so poorly for this surprise ER. After waiting years for a big pop...the FOTM is real. GL to you all though, you definitely deserve it for all you've been through in this stock if it does pop.

So are you saying that some money will become free at the end of October, which you would have invested in Tesla? But feel you can't now because you have limited free cash? You could always use credit / HELOC / etc to advance yourself a couple weeks then pay it off with your free cash that you get at the end of the month. There's no practical difference except for a couple weeks worth of interest.

Just don't do it if the free cash at the end of October is only a "maybe". If it's guaranteed, I see no problem with that.

 

[traxila]

Looking up in a crashing market.

Hard to see a negative in that, but be warned. Markets like this rarely play favorites. Maybe TSLA will run away, but if NAS decides to go down 150 points a day for a while it is doubtful. Plan accordingly, and I hope I am wrong as I already own more of this stock than any I ever have.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Could be this?

View attachment 346349

Really?! Shocking, I tell you, shocking! You mean like selling more cars in 1 quarter than they did the entire year of 2016 means that all those analysts who expected negative CF were wrong?! What next? You tell me they made a profit too, or what?!

 

[KarenRei]

Looking up in a crashing market.

Hard to see a negative in that, but be warned. Markets like this rarely play favorites. Maybe TSLA will run away, but if NAS decides to go down 150 points a day for a while it is doubtful. Plan accordingly, and I hope I am wrong as I already own more of this stock than any I ever have.

Yeah, I have some buys lined up in case Tesla goes down enough. I doubt that's going to happen, but you have to cover your bases.

 

[KarenRei]

BTW., am I the only one who finds that kind of analyst behavior abhorrent: it's unlikely that they came out with that conclusion just now...

The much more probable explanation is that they knew it shortly after the Q3 delivery report, but were sitting on their report, to release it as close to the earnings release as possible - to maximize buying opportunities and to allow their own firm to reverse or go neutral position, should they be short. The report was now forced out by Tesla's surprise 48-hours release of earnings.

Pretty solid data point against the notion that Wall Street analysts are 'independent' of the prop trading arms of their respective institutions...

This got me wondering - does this give everyone a chance to upgrade their FCF forecasts, so that Tesla can't get a "beat"? :Þ

 

[tivoboy]

Note to self. Don’t ever go to bed again. Ouch today’s going to get ugly.

 

[Intl Professor]

Here is an idea that may or may not have been suggested before...

Create an algorithm for banning trolls. Something like the following:

If a user receives 10 times as many dislikes vs likes by trusted users (*) that user is banned.

* A trusted user is a user with at least 100 posts and has a like vs dislike ratio of at least 5.ot

Mod: Not needed. Report it. A recent offender banned on one (1) report.

 

[Ameliorate]

So are you saying that some money will become free at the end of October, which you would have invested in Tesla? But feel you can't now because you have limited free cash? You could always use credit / HELOC / etc to advance yourself a couple weeks then pay it off with your free cash that you get at the end of the month. There's no practical difference except for a couple weeks worth of interest.

Just don't do it if the free cash at the end of October is only a "maybe". If it's guaranteed, I see no problem with that.

it's a loan, that's the soonest I could get it. Story of my life lol market is real gross though (also part of why I was hoping they'd do a Nov earnings)

 

[Krugerrand]

Are you referring to Antonio Gracias the lead board guy? The lawyer? The chief investmnt officer of some fund?
Talking out of his ear or elsewhere, but if tis him, he shouldn't be talking at all. This is exactly the reason the SEC now requires an experienced securities attorney 'whose qualifications are not unacceptable to the SEC' be designated to review all social media and communications.

No, I don’t think the Twitter account belongs to him.

 

[Tslynk67]

And his could oil the wheels of the machine:

 

[traxila]

Note to self. Don’t ever go to bed again. Ouch today’s going to get ugly.

For everyone but TSLA longs? Perhaps....

Not like TSLA hasn’t been kicked around plenty already...for reasons that are not about fundamentals...not at all.

 

[ZachF]

TSLA up, but fighting against the gravity of the morning dip + terrible macros.

 

[njzimmic]

SHORT BURN OF THE CENTURY