TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[defc0n]

It's that time once again. Let us all salute your shorts:

 

[KarenRei]

I suspect everyone is reading too much into the early earnings report. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon was simply like "this Wednesday fits my schedule the best, let's do it then".

Also, Tesla has been very restrained lately about tipping their hand on Q3 results (e.g. there was no re-affirmation of profit in the deliveries report). I doubt they take a restrained stance like that, and then try to send a positive message now.

Nice to see Andrew Left's reversal though. If nothing else, it'll force all the other short sellers on the defensive. The next time Chanos is on the air, the host is going to bring this up.

Chanos is probably smart enough to have flipped the instant he saw any sign that Left might be flipping. Because he can amplify the movement caused by left immediately following his reversal his own position.

 

[M3Rider]

But if you look at the YTD overall increase in SUV vs overall lost in the sedan sales, the numbers don't add up for BMW. Furthermore, an increase of only 6k from 2017 to 2018 YTD is nothing great. To me it is just herding the SUV market for slaying by the pending model Y.

I'm not very clear on the slaying concept.
The volume Tesla can put out is nowhere near to the numbers that are bought every year. Then there won't be enough for all. What will they do? Wait in line for 5 more years or buy whatever is available?

I guess if more and more people want a Tesla, but can't afford one, they might be delaying their purchase in hopes that prices go down and lines get smaller and if there are many of these, then ICE manufacturers may go BK with no new sales, but is it a reason to celebrate if there are no EVs available to replace them? At that point we might have more used cars on the market due to people buying EVs and those deferred sales could be jumping into the used car market... But from here we're kinda against the wall if there are not enough EVs and no new ICEs. Border case, of course, it may not happen like this.

However, some people are not even considering Tesla due to price. This weekend my neighbor had some relative come over and she was going to go car shopping. I offered her a test drive of my M3 and she was like no, I need my monthly payment to be this much, so just no. I mentioned 45k starting price and 12k incentives, still no interest.

My other neighbor did take it for a test drive and said he regretted just buying a truck.

Anyway, it's an interesting topic of what will happen when there's enough EV sales and enough deferred sales waiting for a cheaper EV.

What do people think will be a breaking point?
Like 10% of vehicles on the street being EVs? 20%?

 

[Unpilot]

To do list:

Win lottery. Buy more shares of Tesla

 

[Fact Checking]

e.g. there was no re-affirmation of profit in the deliveries report

Which is actually the historic norm of Tesla delivery reports: the deliveries report is about ... deliveries.

They mixed in financials disclosures this year because of worries about the Model 3 ramp-up, but I'm glad they stopped doing that in Q3 - keep financials to the quarterly report.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Wait in line for 5 more years or buy whatever is available?

Good question. If only we had another car we could use as an example for whether people would be willing to wait for a Tesla or go out and buy something else......

 

[SpudLime]

Wow this roller coaster is fun. My hands are straight up and have a huge smile on my face. Whats around the next corner? Dont care, I am staying on this ride.

 

[Causalien]

To think that the shorts got done in by one of their own champion.

Maybe tomorrow we see M. Spiegel switch side as well.

Scumbag citron wants to hoard the glory to itself by stealing the spotlight, when the real hero is tesla.

 

[EVNow]

So the first rat jumped off the boat. All the other rats are looking around at each other.

If you don’t know who the sucker is at the table, then you’re most likely the sucker.

I won't be surprised if some of the smarter shorts have been quietly getting long. Finally it will be the dumb types who follow some nasty guys on twitter and invest money who will lose all the money.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Which is actually the historic norm of Tesla delivery reports: the deliveries report is about ... deliveries.

They mixed in financials disclosures this year because of worries about the Model 3 ramp-up, but I'm glad they stopped doing that in Q3 - keep financials to the quarterly report.

I think the other thing here is that in the past, it was forward-looking predictions of profitability. Claiming you expect to be profitable at some point in the future is generally fine. Claiming you just were profitable before you've actually run the numbers is dicey.

 

[NikeWings]

Good theory but I highly doubt it...with andrew left gone, the short snake head has been chopped off

we wish..........
I am sickened though by his calculated move to have written the piece, teed up to be released once the ER date was announced (but faking it) and after getting a very telegraphed earnings expectations during Q2 call while also being spoon fed @ZachShahan data to put in his reports. The snake literally did nothing except to timely release his regurgitated report and now being adorned as 'calling it' and enjoying his spotlight. Need a puking emoji. This is a two headed snake and he'll spin faster than Regans head. Just wait.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Not really. Unfortunately, due to an error in the drafting of the US Constitution by James Madison, it requires 2/3 of the Senate to remove a government officer (President, person pretending to be a Supreme Court Justice, Federal Reserve chair, cabinet member, etc) after impeachment. You can't get 2/3 of the Senate to vote for anything more controversial than renaming a post office. The Senate is also wildly malapportioned, with depopulated Wyoming having as much power as California, Texas, or New York.

It's a structural defect in the Constitution. It's a problem. It's one of the problems which led to the Civil War. And to the rise of the KKK, thanks to the inability to remove Andrew Johnson. And it ought to be fixed. It's arguably as bad as the problems which caused the Articles of Confederation to fail -- remember that the Constitution was not legal when it was proposed, and completely bypassed the rules of the Articles of Confederation.

As a result, we are going to be stuck with nutty Trump appointees making market-scaring comments about interest rates and tarriffs until the 2020 election.

Anyway, this is off topic.

Yes it is and a good example of why you should never talk politics. I agree with most of what other things you write, but your political comments are awful. For instance, there is a very good reason why Wyoming has as much clout in the Senate (but not the house, nor electing the President, you neglected to mention that) as California. The constitution regards States as sovereign, not as mere districts in a country. This allows States to have quite different laws on many things. High tax states, gay right states, law and order states, etc. As part of this autonomy, each State was given equal power in the Senate. It isn’t an anachronism. It isn’t a mistake. It is part of the best governance system the world has ever seen.

 

[EVNow]

Scumbag citron wants to hoard the glory to itself by stealing the spotlight, when the real hero is tesla.

Wall street has a simple rule.

Tails we win, Heads you lose.

 

[Fact Checking]

The volume Tesla can put out is nowhere near to the numbers that are bought every year. Then there won't be enough for all. What will they do? Wait in line for 5 more years or buy whatever is available?

They'll keep their old ICE car which is just as fine a car as it was last month - with average vehicle age up beyond 7 years that's not a bad outcome. Very few people are actually forced to buy a new car - as we saw it in 2009 when new car purchases dropped by 50% ...

I.e. the main behavioral choices of new car customers is not binary (ICE car or Tesla), but ternary: buy new ICE car, or defer purchase and keep old ICE car, or buy Tesla.

That easy "deferred purchase" option is what should be the biggest worry of ICE carmakers, not Tesla suddenly making millions of cars (which they obviously won't), IMHO...

One test drive of a Tesla Performance and you know your next life goal.

 

[sub]

Citron/Left is either a huge clown or highly dishonest (we here know it’s both). That “research report” is the same *sugar* we have been saying for as long as I’ve been in TSLA. Citron states their case as though this is a quick reversal on new info, then states reasons for the reversal on information they had been available for years? What a clown.

This rise is most likely the rats jumping ship, I don’t think many longs read that report and decided TSLA was a good investment. Add in some momo/technical traders and here we are.

I hope Elon rips the shorts faces off tomorrow, but I never expect a sustained pop in TSLA anymore. I think it hurts the shorts more to grind them down slowly, allowing them to hang onto their false hope while they pay interest for years.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

They'll keep their old ICE car which is just as fine a car as it was last month - with average vehicle age up beyond 7 years that's not a bad outcome. Very few people are actually forced to buy a new car - as we saw it in 2009 when new car purchases dropped by 50% ...

I.e. the main behavioral choices of new car customers is not binary (ICE car or Tesla), but ternary: buy new ICE car, or defer purchase and keep old ICE car, or buy Tesla.

That easy "deferred purchase" option is what should be the biggest worry of ICE carmakers, not Tesla suddenly making millions of cars (which they obviously won't), IMHO...

One test drive of a Tesla Performance and you know your next life goal.

We will see some fine examples of this behavior when Model Y and Model P are revealed. ICE buyers’ strike.

 

[EVNow]

Wow this roller coaster is fun. My hands are straight up and have a huge smile on my face. Whats around the next corner? Dont care, I am staying on this ride.

After the initial move to 275, now SP is just following the market.

 

[KD2018]

I'm not very clear on the slaying concept.
The volume Tesla can put out is nowhere near to the numbers that are bought every year. Then there won't be enough for all. What will they do? Wait in line for 5 more years or buy whatever is available?

I guess if more and more people want a Tesla, but can't afford one, they might be delaying their purchase in hopes that prices go down and lines get smaller and if there are many of these, then ICE manufacturers may go BK with no new sales, but is it a reason to celebrate if there are no EVs available to replace them? At that point we might have more used cars on the market due to people buying EVs and those deferred sales could be jumping into the used car market... But from here we're kinda against the wall if there are not enough EVs and no new ICEs. Border case, of course, it may not happen like this.

However, some people are not even considering Tesla due to price. This weekend my neighbor had some relative come over and she was going to go car shopping. I offered her a test drive of my M3 and she was like no, I need my monthly payment to be this much, so just no. I mentioned 45k starting price and 12k incentives, still no interest.

My other neighbor did take it for a test drive and said he regretted just buying a truck.

Anyway, it's an interesting topic of what will happen when there's enough EV sales and enough deferred sales waiting for a cheaper EV.

What do people think will be a breaking point?
Like 10% of vehicles on the street being EVs? 20%?

It goes like this just like the sedan market...People will put off buying ICE SUV or ditch their current ICE SUV. This floods the SUV market with used ICE SUV which further suppress sales of ICE SUV. People that used to buy BMW, AUDI and etc SUV at $50k+ will not have any problem buy model Y.

 

[humbaba]

After the initial move to 275, now SP is just following the market.

Pretty much. But that's a nice >10% lead

 

[tivoboy]

wondering how long to hold the feb 340c
avg price 16.74.
something tells me i should keep them

Oh, I would keep holding that. If we continue here tomorrow pre ER that call might get silly so think about selling a tad. If ER is SUPERB, and we shoot to 310/315$, that call will pay for a new model 3. ;-)