TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[wnorris]

It’s hard not to love it, but reading Citron’s report makes me feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone.

Citron certainly did a 180 degree turn quickly. It shows just how thin the short thesis has been.

I find it extremely interesting that they used so many of @ZachShahan 's Cleantechnica charts. Great work Zach by you and your team. Your work seems be doing the best job of highlighting the Tesla story and refuting FUD. Kudos!

 

[Boomer19]

I'm pretty sure most people (even those in this thread) own something OTHER than tesla as well. NSDQ is hammered, which I would bet is where many of those stocks reside.

I'm really liking this TSLA move though, can't decide whether to take todays pop or wait for AH pop after earnings. Do we have the time for the call yet? If it's late west coast, I might have to take the $$ before the call is over.

usually it’s 5pm edt
2pm pac

 

[mekberg]

FYI if you feel like playing more than one lottery this week:

Option_Sniper on Twitter

"TSLA oct26 310c now @ 4 good as LOTTO only for earnings."

I had to unfollow after he? suggested mutual funds are a bad idea for 401k accounts.

 

[TradingInvest]

options are a way for an investor to leverage their investment thesis (short or long), not to impact the stock price - that can only be done with shorting and buying shares.

I agree with part of your post. But I think options can have major impact to the stock price. There are many ways that traders/investors can use options to manipulate the stock movement. We probably can go offline to discuss the details.

 

[Remus]

I have to say, an EV (any EV actually) is not a near ubiquitous product (which is what cell phones were back in 2007) that has a minimum impact on disposable income for the overwhelming majority of buyers (most smartphones - nearly all cell phones in the USA at least were subsidized at the time so the incremental cost was minimal).

There will be many winners in this space, and no one true majority seller. And, frankly if we look at the overall smartphone market Apple is #3. Majority of market profits, for sure. Overall sales WW #3.

That's when others (e.g. Motorola. LG Samsung) quickly step in and offered competitors. Where are the competitors for Tesla?

The big car makers are hopeless. Till today they are more interested in protecting their ICE business.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I have to say, an EV (any EV actually) is not a near ubiquitous product (which is what cell phones were back in 2007) that has a minimum impact on disposable income for the overwhelming majority of buyers (most smartphones - nearly all cell phones in the USA at least were subsidized at the time so the incremental cost was minimal).

There will be many winners in this space, and no one true majority seller. And, frankly if we look at the overall smartphone market Apple is #3. Majority of market profits, for sure. Overall sales WW #3.

If we look at overall sales in smartphones ...it's totally irrelevant. Might as well look at the price of tea in China, profits are what drive the markets. The manufacture of EV's has a MUCH higher barrier of entry than a smartphone ... it's going to be even harder for competition to catch up as it's not simply a matter of copying design and stealing technology like many companies did with Apple. Good luck transitioning an entire: factory, brand and product to EV from ICE, and at the same time trying to maintain profits to keep your bloated corporation in business ... You really wanna advertise your EV car as the latest and greatest only to watch your customers quit buying your ICE cars ?

I'm not saying Tesla will be the only winner ... they won't nor do they have to be but they already have a huge lead and that is going to drive many of the car companies out of business.

Edit: When they do bankrupt other car companies .. I hope Ford is first. They really irritate the hell out of me.

Cheers to the longs.

 

[FS_FRA]

usually it’s 5pm edt
2pm pac

3:30pm PDT as stated here.

 

[mltv]

shorts analyst are trying to save any credibility they have left. this is a job saving move. I don't think there's any trickery on this move.

 

[neroden]

Maybe house swings in the mid-terms to the Dems could hasten this?

Not really. Unfortunately, due to an error in the drafting of the US Constitution by James Madison, it requires 2/3 of the Senate to remove a government officer (President, person pretending to be a Supreme Court Justice, Federal Reserve chair, cabinet member, etc) after impeachment. You can't get 2/3 of the Senate to vote for anything more controversial than renaming a post office. The Senate is also wildly malapportioned, with depopulated Wyoming having as much power as California, Texas, or New York.

It's a structural defect in the Constitution. It's a problem. It's one of the problems which led to the Civil War. And to the rise of the KKK, thanks to the inability to remove Andrew Johnson. And it ought to be fixed. It's arguably as bad as the problems which caused the Articles of Confederation to fail -- remember that the Constitution was not legal when it was proposed, and completely bypassed the rules of the Articles of Confederation.

As a result, we are going to be stuck with nutty Trump appointees making market-scaring comments about interest rates and tarriffs until the 2020 election.

Anyway, this is off topic.

 

[humbaba]

New daily high Over $281 now.

$281 is so history

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I believe you are missing the point. These puts trade frequently and the writer of put doesnt contine to be on the line at expiration. They are frquently bought back to close based on market action in which case someone else is the bag holder

Yes, the options trade frequently, but their volumes are minuscule compared to the underlying stock and those trades only affect the price of the options - which fluctuates wildly depending on how close to a significant event it becomes (check out their prices before and after an earnings call, or new product unveiling - a difference of less than 24hours). But unlike stocks, time decay continuously destroys the value of the options. The ONLY time an option affects the stock price is when they're exercised, and that's done at the strike price. The strike price is the only thing that couples an option price with the stock price.

I stand by my statement, anyone who is short a company by buying put options is either very confident or will lose their investment. Time decay is the worst enemy for option investors.

 

[Drax7]

Mother of all shorts could be in progress.

This is an advice

 

[ZachF]

Bouncing up on $285

 

[Hogfighter]

So the first rat jumped off the boat. All the other rats are looking around at each other.

If you don’t know who the sucker is at the table, then you’re most likely the sucker.

 

[Xpert]

i was wondering if there’s a posibility of a short squeeze if macro turns around next couple days (good news from saudi/fed/trump/xi) plus ER knocking it out of the park? That would be a 1-2-3 punch.

 

[neroden]

Talk about virtue-signaling, Erdogan has probably ordered more murders of his opponents than I've had hot dinners. Doesn't make it right, of course not, but the old black kettles and pots, etc.

Ordering murders is not actually Erdogan's style. Election theft, taking political prisoners, running them through political "trials" and "convictions", and sending the military after political opponents by calling them "terrorists" -- that is more his style. But yeah, pot, kettle.

 

[neroden]

It's TSLA specific early trading price action: significant volume of several ten thousand shares (which is large in early trading), and several transactions not just a single one:

• Some big short might have connected the dots and covered? Slow thinkers they are, but at $270 they are still getting a pretty nice deal IMHO.
• Or one of the Wall Street analysts gave in and released a TSLA upgrade, on which news early access clients are now trading?
• Or some big Tesla news incoming?

But I could be misreading it all ...

Edit: looks like the second option.

Citron Research, run by infamous "activist short seller" Andrew Left ( who hounds and harasses companies and spreads negative attacks about them)... has gone long TSLA.

I don't want to link directly to Citron, but here's Reuters:

Tesla critic Citron makes U-turn ahead of results | Reuters

 

[KarenRei]

The fun thing about breaking $285... hopefully this will tempt a lot of bears to heavily short the stock in the leadup to the Q3 report Come on, bears... short the thing back to $250 before the report

 

[Unpilot]

S....Q...U...E...E...Z...E

 

[shlokavica22]

Someone is loading up on protection big time. Tesla is up and yet the October 26th 250 puts price is also up. It was as high as $10.

Because the IV jumped through the roof. Yesterday it was half from what it is today.