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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I've thought for a long time that if teleportation should ever happen, a best first use would be to send water from flooding in the Southeast to fires in the Pacific coast states. Water is homogeneous enough that you wouldn't have to worry about keeping structure (except at the molecular level) intact.

Actually, if teleportation ever became a reality, you wouldn't have to send water, you'd use it to create water. Essentially a teleportation device would be encoding an object, deconstructing it, then reconstructing in another location.

You could actually remove the deconstruction step and given a suitable raw-supply of the necessary elements, reproduce what's needed.

Essential a teleportation device is a machine that copies. Ergo, you only need to make one, or many two, then it can copy itself indefinitely. No need to manufacturing anything any more. Gold, platinum, diamonds, physical currency all become worthless immediately.

Hunger, need, poverty would al cease to exist.

If it were the case that living things could be teleported - although look at all the problems Jeff Goldblum had with that! - then you could also copy that entity, assuming, of course, that the conscious isn't something intangible, but rather just a function, probably quantum-driven of the thing's brain.

Then you could also imagine that in deconstructing a human being, you could make some tweaks, on a basic DNA level. You could improve people, remove defects, disease, edit stuff.

Back to the fire, you could use it to remove the burning items and dump them, say on Mars - in Elon's fireplace, you could even phase this over time, no need to do it all in one go, the "fire" can be stored indefinitely, I guess until needed.

And then extrapolating this, a copy of everyone can be stored too when you die, recreate your younger body, but swap it for your older brain. Humans become immortal.

Something I've given thought to for some time, it's quite a conundrum.
 
WEEKEND OFF-TOPIC: :D

So totally unnecessary to use antimatter! Instead, light energy can be stored directly in a Bose-Einstein Condensate (BEC). Let's compare the two. First, BECs:
  • BECs contain no mass, only pure energy (ultra light weight storage)
  • No limit to energy density (Pauli exclusion principle doesn't apply to Bosons)
  • BECs are literally light in a bottle, and can be solar pumped (direct generation)
  • Energy storage has theoretical round trip eff. approaching 100% (swap $ for eff.)
  • BECs are usable at room temperature (no hi-temp physics)
Second, let's look at the limits of antimatter energy storage schemes:
  • antimatter is extremely expensive to create (economic limits to use)
  • antimatter annilations produce gamma rays (billions of degrees NIMBY problem)
  • best antimatter propulsion scheme has theoretical 74% efficiency (pion decay)
  • Bonus: that other 26% when converted to heat is gonna poach your eggs
So here's the bottom line: Because BECs don't require high temp physics, BEC devices are scaleable from sub-KW to TW+ as needed. Unlike antimatter reactors, BECs storage could be devised for (in ascending order):
  • personal devices
  • cars + trucks
  • airplanes
  • ships
  • ion drive rocket motors
  • planetary magnetic field generators
  • multi-generational star ships
Oh yes, BECs make it possible to bring along a 1,000 yrs worth of sunlight on a long, cold, and dark interstellar journey. It's just enginneering, mang. :cool:

That's where you spend those R&D moonshot gigabucks so that each year new areas of research are explored. For example, the paper decribed in the vid below represents a new BEC storage scheme published in Apr 2018.

Where will we be in a hundred years if we start now? Where will we be if we don't?

Let's do.

Cheers!


I always thought that BEC was actually a state of matter that has fallen into a certain harmonisation - the best layman explanation I ever heard of it was "the sound of violins". I guess it could apply to energy too. I've heard it touted that that BEC in the brain could be the source of consciousness, but that's something I read many years ago, so it might be long discredited by now.
 
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Anyway: take this as a single data point. But it looks like Tesla is calling people. Is this a new phenomenon? Anyone else get such a call?

I got a call from a Tesla associate asking me how I was enjoying my 3 and X. Ask if I wanted to visit her so I can test drive and take home an S as well.

It was hard for me to process I was being sold S3X. Being a married man, caught off guard by the call, I gave some timid and lame ass excuse like oh - I drove the S already when my 3 was in the shop for touch up. It was nice.

She was disappointed and I felt bad letting her down. While S3X in the garage is tempting, I was really better off putting that into TSLA when it was around 260 at the time.

Have sell limit at 1000 if the shorties want to pick them up from me.
 
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I always thought that BEC was actually a state of matter that has fallen into a certain harmonisation - the best layman explanation I ever heard of it was "the sound of violins". I guess it could apply to energy too. I've heard it touted that that BEC in the brain could be the source of consciousness, but that's something I read many years ago, so it might be long discredited by now.

WEEKEND OFF TOPIC - CON'T

Yes, textbook Bose-Einstein condensates were first created with ultracold alkali atoms. Indeed, theories of superconductivity and superfluidity have their origins in the concept of Bose–Einstein condensation (BEC).

For condensed light, BECs were first created at room temperature by trapping photons (also a type of boson) in a dye solution between two mirrors by Klaers et.al (2010).

Expanding research beyond ultracold condensates to such room temperature systems has allowed the discovery of these addtitional systems:
  • Hybrid particles of semiconductor excitons and cavity photons, called exciton-polaritons, have shown condensation and interaction effects, creating coherent light output that deviates from usual laser light
  • Magnons, that is, spin-wave excitations in magnetic materials, and photons in microcavities form condensates as well
Such new systems expand the time, temperature and spatial scales where a BEC can exist, thus opening viable paths for technological applications of BECs.

These new hybrid BEC systems show promise for future technology due to their ultrafast, room-temperature and on-chip nature. Such a system could be developed into an ideal energy storage technology for EVs.

The future's so bright, we're gonna need shades. :cool:

Cheers!
 

My take on the streamlined Model S/X options:
  • New orders are so strong for Q4 that they are hitting new limits: Fremont seat factory but also sunroof assembly. By removing some options from lower price vehicles they can increase effective production rate immediately and with zero capex.
  • They also want to create incentives for more S buyers to either convert to higher price models, or to get a Model 3 Performance. These measures further improve margins without losing sales.
  • They are also trying to reduce end of Q4 inventory: cars made from now on will be simpler to assemble and faster to deliver, allowing more new cars made and delivered on the west coast.
TL;DR: looks like a potentially blockbuster fourth quarter to me, in terms of record revenue, record profits, record cash flow and record margins.
 
My take on the streamlined Model S/X options:
  • New orders are so strong for Q4 that they are hitting new limits: Fremont seat factory but also sunroof assembly. By removing some options from lower price vehicles they can increase effective production rate immediately and with zero capex.
  • They also want to create incentives for more S buyers to either convert to higher price models, or to get a Model 3 Performance. These measures further improve margins without losing sales.
  • They are also trying to reduce end of Q4 inventory: cars made from now on will be simpler to assemble and faster to deliver, allowing more new cars made and delivered on the west coast.
TL;DR: looks like a potentially blockbuster fourth quarter to me, in terms of record revenue, record profits, record cash flow and record margins.

Seeking Alpha was getting a little too bullish so I had to find a more balanced journalism source.

Tesla Burns Through $620 Million, Loses $13,000 Per Car Made Ahead Of Model 3 Launch

With all these improvements, what do you think the loss per car will be? ;)
 
I'm curious about the "Disagree" here, @9837264723849 - is it my reasoning or that you don't like OT posts?

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My take on the streamlined Model S/X options:
  • New orders are so strong for Q4 that they are hitting new limits: Fremont seat factory but also sunroof assembly. By removing some options from lower price vehicles they can increase effective production rate immediately and with zero capex.
  • They also want to create incentives for more S buyers to either convert to higher price models, or to get a Model 3 Performance. These measures further improve margins without losing sales.
  • They are also trying to reduce end of Q4 inventory: cars made from now on will be simpler to assemble and faster to deliver, allowing more new cars made and delivered on the west coast.
TL;DR: looks like a potentially blockbuster fourth quarter to me, in terms of record revenue, record profits, record cash flow and record margins.

Great summary. Does removing options increase margin for Model S and Model X?
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger
My take on the streamlined Model S/X options:
  • New orders are so strong for Q4 that they are hitting new limits: Fremont seat factory but also sunroof assembly. By removing some options from lower price vehicles they can increase effective production rate immediately and with zero capex.
  • They also want to create incentives for more S buyers to either convert to higher price models, or to get a Model 3 Performance. These measures further improve margins without losing sales.
  • They are also trying to reduce end of Q4 inventory: cars made from now on will be simpler to assemble and faster to deliver, allowing more new cars made and delivered on the west coast.
TL;DR: looks like a potentially blockbuster fourth quarter to me, in terms of record revenue, record profits, record cash flow and record margins.

Shorts reaction:

Q1 18 - "Tesla can't produce the Model 3!"

Q2 18, Model 3 starts to ramp - "Tesla can't make a profit on the Model 3!"

Q3 18, Tesla is profitable - "This is as good as it will ever get. Only profitable because pent up Performance demand and now ASP and margin will go down from here."

Q4 18, record deliveries/revenue/profit - "That's only because end of year tax credit expiring that pulled demand forward. Now demand will collapse in 2019!"

Q1 19, European deliveries begin, Performance version and awd first, margins pick up again - "That's only because pent up Performance demand and now ASP and margin will go down from here."

Q2 19, China deliveries begin with Performance and awd versions first. Standard battery Model 3 deliveries begin. Record revenue and profit. S&P inclusion. - "OK, now demand is finally saturated, there are no new markets to pick up the slack. No where to go but down from here!"

Q3 19, Model Y unveil. Reservations surpass 500k in one week. - "... Tesla can't produce the Model Y!"
 
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