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Undecided if I should buy solar panels, unique situation

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I just had my virtual meeting with a Tesla Solar rep to go over things. My house has a guesthouse/ADU where my sick father-in-law and his wife who takes care of him, stay. He requires continuous oxygen and a lot of other medical equipment (and A/C) that use A LOT of electricity. We have SoCal Edison and have been on a TOU 4-9 plan, which is $0.26/kw during off-peak hours (which are 4-9 pm), but that goes up to $0.36 after “baseline” usage. Since we use so much electricity, most of it is at 0.36 during summer months .4-9 pm is $0.47-0.57/kwh. During the non-summer months, the off-peak is similar but peak is about $0.10 cheaper. For the entire year, we average about 50+ kWh/day, and the electricity bill is astronomical, about $6-7k/year. The rep suggested 9.6 kW system, which he said could generate about 50 kWh/day, and 1 powerwall, for the medical equipment in case power goes. Quoted around $36K, which goes down to about $25K after federal rebate. Seems like a no-brainer, but a few caveats.

Now that I have an EV, SCE will change me to TOU Prime, which is $0.22-0.24/kWh, expect during peak 4-9 pm, which is about $0.60/kW. I imagine this will lower by bill by about 20-30%, even without solar.

I don’t know how long my father-in-law will stay with us. Staying here was supposed to be temporary until he got better, but it’s taking longer than expected and it’s been 14 months now. He’s been hospitalized a few times. He may get better and move back to his house, or he may get worse and we won’t need the equipment anymore. If he’s gone and we are generating a lot of excess power, I worry that NEM 3.0 will lower the buyback rate.

The guesthouse and garage are connected and have a separate electrical panel from the main house, even though it’s all billed by SCE as a single address. The panels and PW we install there won’t be usable in the main house where my wife and kids stay with me. So in a blackout, guesthouse and garage will have PW backup, but I’ll stay in the dark.

Part of me thinks I should just skip solar and buy some Powerwalls or other batteries. Charge then up during the morning, then run on them 4-9 pm since TOU Prime has good off peak rates. If the batteries can cover the entire peak period, this would probably save me $8-12/day during summer months. It would also address the issue of having backup for medical equipment (wife asked for generator before I looked into solar/batteries).
 
For medical equipment, I think most will recommend a separate battery hooked up to all the medical equipment.

I don't think Tesla sells powerwalls by themselves without solar. In your case, I would research if Tesla can even get your system under NEM3.0 since that's a bigger question than everything else you wrote because there is very little ROI under NEM3.0 IMO and mostly just to zero out your bills assuming one can buy enough battery storage for on-peak times.


Read some of the posts here and research on reddit, I think it's risky to go Tesla solar if you are in CA since it's been posted that they won't file paperwork to reserve your NEM2.0 grandfathering (they just haven't ever worked that way) and that alone will make solar a go/no go.

Generally, ROI is easy in CA on solar alone under NEM2.0. ROI is like zero with storage under NEM2.0. NEM3.0 will make it mostly not worth bothering, but you get non-ROI benefits and can tell the IOUs to bugger off (assuming you have enough batteries).
 
For medical equipment, the recommendation is always going to have multiple levels of redundancy; multiple battery systems, extra oxygen tanks as well as concentrators, etc... A single Powerwall is still a single point of failure. Ditto a single oxygen concentrator, etc. Redundancy takes planning, attention to detail, and money.

With the shift to NEM, the consensus here, and other sites is batteries, so if the house and ADU have different meters, that's probably multiple batteries on both dwellings.

The solutions aren't going to be cheap, but with electricity rates in the south land heading up, it is a safe bet that the $6-7k power bills are only going to get more expensive.
 
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A couple of thoughts on your situation.
1. If you get solar, don't size the solar for your abnormal total usage today, but rather your expected normal usage for the next 10 years.
2. I don't think any reputable solar installer with reasonable prices can get you installed and locked in on NEM 2.0 at this point. So, you might as well plan for NEM 3 and what kind of battery system you want.
3. If your SCE account only has one meter, then you can install the Powerwalls so that you get the backup feature for your main house and ADU. It doesn't matter so much which structure has the solar attached.
 
Regarding NEM 2.0 vs 3.0– my main house has leased solar panels installed in 2013 by the previous owner. It was Solar City but taken over Tesla. They only produce max ~25 kWh on the sunniest days. During my consultation, the rep made it wound like any new installation over the ADU/garage would have nothing to do with the existing system. But now I’m wondering if the old system locks me in NEM 2.0, and any new system I install can be seen as an add-on rather than new system.
 
But now I’m wondering if the old system locks me in NEM 2.0, and any new system I install can be seen as an add-on rather than new system.

Thats not how it works (although a system installed in 2013 would likely have been grandfathered into NEM1 not nem 2). You are only allowed to make small changes to your system without triggering a change in NEM. If one of your panels goes bad, for example, it wont trigger a change in your NEM if you replaced it with a larger one.

I think the limit is 1kW of difference before it triggers a new NEM agreement. Any new system is going to be a new NEM agreement, that is, if its permitted and not something you DIY or something.
 
Regarding NEM 2.0 vs 3.0– my main house has leased solar panels installed in 2013 by the previous owner. It was Solar City but taken over Tesla. They only produce max ~25 kWh on the sunniest days. During my consultation, the rep made it wound like any new installation over the ADU/garage would have nothing to do with the existing system. But now I’m wondering if the old system locks me in NEM 2.0, and any new system I install can be seen as an add-on rather than new system.
Yes, any new solar will be completely separate and it doesn't matter much which structure it is on. However, the problem remains that you have to get the new system installed and paperwork filed by the April 14th deadline to retain your net metering. If you can get PTO before that date, even better. If you don't make that deadline, you will be pushed into the Net Billing Tariff, which gives roughly wholesale credit for the solar you send to the grid. Any modification of your NEM 1.0 solar system (from 2013) more than 1.0kW CEC AC rating, will push you into the NEM tariff in effect at the time of the modification.

Powerwalls and the Tesla Backup Gateway are best installed close to the meter. That way they can provide backup for your entire electrical service, regardless of the placement of any sub-panels. Of course, the size of your loads will determine how many Powerwalls are required to backup your entire service (whole home backup).
 
My understanding was you had to have the interconnect paperwork filed before April 14, but the actual project could be installed/completed up to 3 years later.

Can someone confirm this? If this is the case, NEM 2.0 seems plausible, but if everything has to be done by 4/15, looks like I can only get 3.0. That would be a huge factor in my decision-making.

Thanks everyone for great advice!
 
Can someone confirm this? If this is the case, NEM 2.0 seems plausible, but if everything has to be done by 4/15, looks like I can only get 3.0. That would be a huge factor in my decision-making.

Thanks everyone for great advice!

It generally works that way, but not every installer will be able to navigate all these rules and know how to file stuff correctly.

From everything I've seen, Tesla generally doesn't work that way though (get all paperwork signed off, etc...) to be grandfathered under NEM2.0. They tend to not submit paperwork till it passes inspection and passing inspection means you're almost done with the install already.

My guess is solar installers are massively booked now and will be all year so pricing may go up since they may need to get folks to work overtime. Bad weather isn't going to help these next 3 months.

If you read reddit from that Futuristic poster and a lot of the threads/comments here as well as reddit, Tesla Solar is hit or miss and nearly every posts generally advises to make sure you find an installer who really knows their stuff on what it takes to get grandfathered. This is important because if something screws up, no one is going to care and at that point, you might not even bother going solar already. If you have no batteries, I think you definitely don't want to bother, but that's to horrid nem rates for us in San Diego (13c credit).

You're in LA so maybe someone chimes in from that area, but I personally wouldn't hold my breath that a lot of companies know what they are doing since this is all really new/rushed at this point.
 
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can't address your question about solar, but just wanted to mention that Edison has a program for those that have electric medical devices. (if you haven't checked it out). Best wishes to you and your family.