US Sales - Tax Credit

[flamingoezz]

With news of Tesla exceeding delivery expectations, I was curious what the US sales were at. Based on InsideEV it looks like are somewhere around 118K in the US. We can get a pretty good idea what to expect in terms of quarterly S/X US sales, and now that we have somewhat of an idea from Elon on his ramp plans, even with tempered expectations on deliveries, it looks pretty certain we'll hit 200K cars in Q4 of this year -- with probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 35K Model 3's in that equation.

There was some speculation of Tesla holding deliveries to get them into the following quarter before the tax credit phase out activates, but if Elon hits anywhere near his expected 80K M3's built this year (per Electrek) it doesn't seem like it'll be close to 200K -- and I doubt Elon will hold 20K+ cars for a month or anti-sell the S/X.

Now to go back to Elon's ramp up comments to see if I might have a chance of taking delivery by September...

 

[internauts]

I know there are many friends here who are tracking the deliveries. If Model 3 deliveries in 3rd Qtr 2017 are as Elon predicted last night, 30 in July, 100 in August and 1500 in September, will Tesla Motors hit the 200,000 th electric vehicle before September 30, 2017? Everything I have read predicts that 200,000th vehicle before end of 4th Qtr 2017.

If Elon's prediction is correct, 35,000 model 3 will be delivered. What would the end 2017 number of vehicles total based upon Elon's predictions and public Model S/X information?