Very interesting Tesla Timeline (written by JZ13 in the Tesla Motors General Forum).

[Benz]

This very interesting Tesla Timeline (written by JZ13 in the Tesla Motors General Forum) should be read by all of us. It's really that good.

Remember all credit goes to our common Tesla friend JZ13. :biggrin:

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In light of the recent sell-off in the stock I remind myself and other Tesla fans to focus on the big picture. I began to imagine what Tesla will be accomplishing over the next 10 years. I came up with something like this:

2014: 50,000 Model S sales including Asia and right-hand drive countries; 5,000 Model X sales; Supercharger network covering 75% of population in the developed world; limited battery-swap stations open; TSLA $350

2015: Q1 Model E prototype revealed; All wheel drive Model S revealed; Supercharger network mostly built out; Tesla/Panasonic battery giga-factory announced; 70,000 Model S sales; 40,000 Model X sales; TSLA $650

2016: Improved battery pack options for Model S and X - range up to 500 miles; giga-factory opens; Superchargers upgraded to 200 kw; 90,000 Model S sales; 80,000 Model X sales; TSLA $950

2017: Model Y (GenIII crossover) prototype released; Model S mid-cycle refresh designs released; Mercedes adds more Tesla-built drivetrains to their line-up of cars; 50,000 Model E sales; 100,000 Model S and 90,000 Model X sales; TSLA $1,300

2018: Autopilot feature rolls out; announcement of new auto factory to be built in Europe; Superchargers upgraded to 250 kw; 150,000 Model E sales; 100,000 Model S sales; 90,000 Model X sales; TSLA $1,700

2019: Elon retires as Tesla CEO but remains Chairman; Model R (roadster) and Model Z (exotic) prototypes released using GenIII platform; European factory opens; Toyota adds Tesla-built drivetrains to their line-up; 2nd battery gigafactory to be built in Asia; Model X mid-cycle design refresh; 400,000 Model E; 50,000 Model Y; 110,000 Model S; 100,000 Model X; TSLA $2,200

2020: Model S 2.0 prototype released; 2nd gigafactory opens; GM begins to use Tesla-built drivetrains in their cars; 2 new auto factories announced - 1 in U.S. and 1 in Asia; Superchargers now get 50% charge in 5 minutes; 750,000 Model E; 200,000 Model Y; 120,000 Model S; 110,000 Model X; TSLA $2,900

2021: Model P (GenIII platform) pick-up truck and Model L (large pick-up truck) prototypes released; 2 new factories opened; Model E mid-cycle design updates released; improved battery pack options for all models extend range; 1.3 million Model E; 800,000 Model Y; 120,000 Model S; 110,000 Model X; 25,000 Model R; 1,000 Model Z; TSLA $3,800

2022: Most automakers are now using Tesla-built drivetrains and they pay Tesla so that these cars can access the Tesla Supercharger network. Tesla has added hundreds of stations to accommodate mass adoption; 3 more auto factories and 3 more battery giga-factories are announced spread between U.S., Europe and Asia; Gen IV platform announced with the Model C (compact) prototype being released. Model C will sell for $25,000. Tesla sells millions of cars with margins double the average automaker due to direct sales model and zero marketing budget. Tesla is the #1 supplier of fleet cars for taxi's, police, delivery vehicles, etc.; TSLA $5,000


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Unquote


Any ideas?
Any guesses?
Any estimate?
Any expectations?

Share them with all of us.

Thanks


Here is a link to the exact TM forum page: http://www.teslamotors.com/nl_NL/forum/forums/tesla-timeline

 

[NigelM]

@Benz: please can you add a link to the exact TM forum page just as a courtesy to the original author? Thanks.

 

[neroden]

Any ideas?
Any guesses?
Any estimate?
Any expectations?

Stock price estimates are unrealistically high even if all the other numbers are correct, and seem to be ass-pulls. Someone needs to do a little spreadsheet work. These sorts of prices can only occur if "momentum investors" are driving prices, and that doesn't last that long. Or, I suppose, you could get prices this high if we have a lot of inflation.

 

[vfx]

Tesla is unpredictable. In a good way. They are always 2 to 3 steps ahead of anyone. The best part is reading people like JP who assume all things Tesla are doing will stay the same.
While JZ's timeline is fun, IMHO it is linear and underestimates what surprises will be announced even in the coming months.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

While JZ's timeline is fun, IMHO it is linear and underestimates what surprises will be announced even in the coming months.

To me JZ's forecast would be already good. But if you were right and JZ understimated the future of Tesla it would be even better. In my dreams I see Tesla to become the first automaker in the world.

 

[Benz]

Tesla is unpredictable. In a good way. They are always 2 to 3 steps ahead of anyone. The best part is reading people like JP who assume all things Tesla are doing will stay the same.
While JZ's timeline is fun, IMHO it is linear and underestimates what surprises will be announced even in the coming months.

Even in the coming months? Please share your thoughts with us.

 

[vfx]

Even in the coming months? Please share your thoughts with us.

I wish I could but I would be wrong as JZ :biggrin:

 

[vin5xxx]

Hey guys, I'm JZ13 on the Tesla Motors forum. Thanks for posting this here Benz!

In April I posted this in the Tesla Motors forum "Why I think Tesla stock will be more than $1,000 by 2020"

Why I think Tesla stock will be more than $1,000 in 2020 | Forums | Tesla Motors

In it I provided a very simple DCF that made the case for my stock prediction. Around the same time Sal Demir published his much more detailed DCF coming to a similar ballpark conclusion as I.

Why I think Tesla stock will be more than $1,000 in 2020 | Forums | Tesla Motors

Obviously these are optimistic views and who knows what the real outcome will be. However, the math pans out. It is very possible.

I look forward to all comments both in disagreement and agreement.

 

[Benz]

Hey guys, I'm JZ13 on the Tesla Motors forum. Thanks for posting this here Benz!

You're welcome.

I also look forward to all comments both in disagreement and agreement with your view. Very interesting.

 

[Benz]

If we look at the 2014 year of JZ13's Tesla timeline, we see 50,000 Model S sales and 5,000 Model X sales.

There is one very important question that I have in order for the possibilities for that to come true, and it's regarding the new Panasonic battery cell supply agreement (2014 - 2017).

When will Panasonic start to deliver battery cells under this new agreement (and therefore in higher volumes per shipment than in 2013)?

Will that be in Januari 2014 already (which would be positive news), or will that be some time later in the year 2014 (which would be less positive news, and which would affect sales volumes in 2014)?

Any idea/guess/estimate/expectation/view/comment?

 

[neroden]

Hey guys, I'm JZ13 on the Tesla Motors forum. Thanks for posting this here Benz!

In April I posted this in the Tesla Motors forum "Why I think Tesla stock will be more than $1,000 by 2020"

See, that's a much more conservative estimate than the ones in the post where I just rubbished your estimates. :wink: Big difference between $1000 in 2020 and $2900 in 2020! Factor of 2.9, in fact!

 

[kenliles]

See, that's a much more conservative estimate than the ones in the post where I just rubbished your estimates. :wink: Big difference between $1000 in 2020 and $2900 in 2020! Factor of 2.9, in fact!

True but if it's $1000 only a few will be complaining



p.s. I expect JP will have upped his target to $50 by then

 

[Raffy.Roma]

See, that's a much more conservative estimate than the ones in the post where I just rubbished your estimates. :wink: Big difference between $1000 in 2020 and $2900 in 2020! Factor of 2.9, in fact!

Usually while doing estimates factors under ten are considered as 1. In fact JZ13 did a stochastic calculus.

 

[vin5xxx]

Benz that's a great question. I was actually disappointed to learn that cell availability is a current problem. The old agreement which is still in place should have accounted for increased production above 550 packs/week. Panasonic is ramping up old production lines that were closed but I'm actually very surprised that Panasonic is the reason we aren't seeing higher production numbers.

 

[aronth5]

JZ13 -" 2016: Improved battery pack options for Model S and X - range up to 500 miles"

This seems overly optimistic. Most of the information seems to indicate a 20% battery improvement for Gen3 and this is the number JB Straubel has shared publically. Even an improvement of 40% falls short of 400 miles based on today 265 EPA rating let alone 500. Of course he has to be careful what he says publically but 500 seems unreachable in 3 years. Would love to be wrong.

 

[vin5xxx]

Oops, just realized I double posted my link in lieu of Sal Demir's link. Here is the link to Sal's DCF:

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Tesla Motors' Full Analysis 2.0 [Ford Motor Company, SolarCity Corp] - Seeking Alpha

- - - Updated - - -

I based that on the current 300 mile Tesla range claim and then Elon's hint in the prior conference call earlier this year that "why can't we get to 500 miles?". So it would not be 500 EPA range but rather 500 Tesla range.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I think the initial numbers are way off. Tesla have said that the Model X will be only produced a trickle in 2014 (I'd assume < 1000 cars) and volume production around Q2 2015. So I'd reduce the initial ramp-up speed of the Model X. Due to battery constraints I'd assume the 2014 Model S numbers would also be more in line with 35-40k. And overall I'd probably dampen the rise somewhat, it's nice to play with numbers in a spreadsheet, but Tesla will have to build out new lines in the factory firstly for Model X and secondly for extended production of the Model S. So maximally I'd double production YoY, but one has to account for battery agreements and building of gigafactory (beyond ca 80-100k cars / year total the new Panasonic agreement runs out of steam).

 

[Benz]

I think the initial numbers are way off. Tesla have said that the Model X will be only produced a trickle in 2014 (I'd assume < 1000 cars) and volume production around Q2 2015. So I'd reduce the initial ramp-up speed of the Model X. Due to battery constraints I'd assume the 2014 Model S numbers would also be more in line with 35-40k. And overall I'd probably dampen the rise somewhat, it's nice to play with numbers in a spreadsheet, but Tesla will have to build out new lines in the factory firstly for Model X and secondly for extended production of the Model S. So maximally I'd double production YoY, but one has to account for battery agreements and building of gigafactory (beyond ca 80-100k cars / year total the new Panasonic agreement runs out of steam).

Yes, in 2014 only a few hundred Tesla Model Xes will be produced. Meaning that almost all deliveries in 2014 will be a Tesla Model S delivery. And 2015 will be totally different.

 

[Robert.Boston]

My guess is that about 12 Model Xs will be delivered this year, similar to the founders deliveries in June 2013.

 

[joefee]

Even if this prediction is way off ....TSLA still a 10 bagger from here