Waymo brings in $2.25 billion from outside investors, Alphabet

[mikes_fsd]

Yes, clearly investors valuing a company that has almost no revenue at $30 billion means that company has no future.

Did you mean to quote someone else?
I didn't mention anything about the future of Waymo, only that they were butthurt about their valuation.

From outward appearances their technology and prospects seems very similar.

Outward appearance is not going to tell you if the company has achieved or will ever achieve FSD.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Did you mean to quote someone else?
I didn't mention anything about the future of Waymo, only that they were butthurt about their valuation.

It's often difficult to understand the point you're trying to make. Yes, I'm sure they would be happier if they had a $200 billion valuation.

Outward appearance is not going to tell you if the company has achieved or will ever achieve FSD.

I think vehicles operating with no safety driver and an accident rate below human drivers would be sufficient.

 

[ZeApelido]

Well, Waymo was overvalued. So the market is correcting itself. Waymo's autonomous driving is still very good.

And laugh all you want at Waymo losing value, but Tesla has no FSD at all yet. At least Waymo has some autonomous driving.

What does "very good" mean?

Like, to me the critical threshold is it can drive autonomously with an accident rate below that of humans.

If it is below that threshold, the valuation should easily be in the hundreds of billions because the potential taxi profit is easily over a trillion.

Downvalued to 35 billion really means investors don't see a clear path to get past that threshold, IMO.

 

[diplomat33]

What does "very good" mean?

Like, to me the critical threshold is it can drive autonomously with an accident rate below that of humans.

If it is below that threshold, the valuation should easily be in the hundreds of billions because the potential taxi profit is easily over a trillion.

Downvalued to 35 billion really means investors don't see a clear path to get past that threshold, IMO.

Obviously, "very good" is a subjective. Waymo cars can drive 1.4 million autonomous miles in an urban environment and only have about 100 disengagements. Waymo cars also have a long list of situations, including complex city driving, that the car is designed to handle autonomously. So putting those two things together, I would consider it to be "very good". But I recognize that is not good enough for full deployment without a driver.

I agree that the critical threshold is whether it can do better than the human average. But remember that the human average is a very high standard. So it is possible to have an autonomous car that is "very good" and still be technically worse than humans.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Downvalued to 35 billion really means investors don't see a clear path to get past that threshold, IMO.

I would say if they don't have a path to autonomy then their value would be nearly zero. Clearly the market is pricing in the fact that there is a good chance they won't be able to reach that threshold and they have a huge number of competitors. The $200 billion dollar number was made up anyway. This is their first funding round so no one actually invested at the $200 billion valuation.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Well, Waymo was overvalued. So the market is correcting itself. Waymo's autonomous driving is still very good.

And laugh all you want at Waymo losing value, but Tesla has no FSD at all yet. At least Waymo has some autonomous driving.

Only if you are Phoenix (or whatever).

And only if it is not raining.

And only if it is not snowing.

But seriously, this Waymo drastic degrade, and change of business model, indicates that the entire geofencing business does nor scale, making the entire approach unattractive to just about everybody. For what we have here are basically glorified trams.

 

[diplomat33]

And only if it is not raining.

And only if it is not snowing.

That's not true. While a passenger did note an occasion where the safety driver took over manual driving in a heavy rainstorm, probably for safety reasons, the cars can and do drive autonomously in light and moderate rain and snow.

"So far, we've taught our cars to drive in moderate weather (rain) and are gaining more experience in Kirkland, Washington. To test in snow, we have cars driving in Novi, Michigan, during winter months. And in San Francisco, we're building up experience driving in fog. Investing in weather testing is crucial to being able to bring our technology to more people in more places."
Waymo Self-Driving Cars Are Getting Confused by Rain, Passenger Says

 

[mikes_fsd]

Here's an article that I am sure @diplomat33 will drool over.... if it wasn't for the ranking being outright hilarious.
They rank BMW's Strategy/Execution as much better then Tesla's -- BMW, the same BMW that just last week said they are not focusing on "self-driving".

Don't laugh yet, how about Yandex?
Yandex is the Russian version of China! They have absolutely no idea how to create, it is 101% copy/paste, it's just going to be fun to see who's IP they will rip off.

I disagree with 99.1% of the ranking from this article, but if I was to put Tesla on this chart, I would place it here:
Just a quick though on Tesla lacking strategy (S) or execution (E):

• A chip built from the ground up (and in house) for the sole purpose of autonomy. (both S&E)
• HYPER focus on the select path - Computer Vision w/ cameras (S)
  • the path was selected based on first principles thinking
• Massive focus on data gathering and labeling. (S & E)

Tesla trails Waymo, Cruise and others in self-driving strategy, study claims - Roadshow

 

[diplomat33]

Here's an article that I am sure @diplomat33 will drool over.... if it wasn't for the ranking being outright hilarious.
They rank BMW's Strategy/Execution as much better then Tesla's -- BMW, the same BMW that just last week said they are not focusing on "self-driving".

Don't laugh yet, how about Yandex?
Yandex is the Russian version of China! They have absolutely no idea how to create, it is 101% copy/paste, it's just going to be fun to see who's IP they will rip off.

I disagree with 99.1% of the ranking from this article, but if I was to put Tesla on this chart, I would place it here:
Just a quick though on Tesla lacking strategy (S) or execution (E):

• A chip built from the ground up (and in house) for the sole purpose of autonomy. (both S&E)
• HYPER focus on the select path - Computer Vision w/ cameras (S)
  • the path was selected based on first principles thinking
• Massive focus on data gathering and labeling. (S & E)

View attachment 522412

Tesla trails Waymo, Cruise and others in self-driving strategy, study claims - Roadshow

I find your ranking of Tesla absolutely hilarious. Tesla has no FSD at all yet. How can they possibly be so high in the chart, in the leader area even, when they have no FSD at all? You are ranking them as a leader based solely on their approach to FSD before they have even produced any FSD.

Let me give you this analogy. Imagine a marathon.

One athlete is still in the gym and is only doing strength exercises. They have not ran any races yet. That's Tesla. Data labeling is like training in the gym. It's just what you do to get ready and prepare for the race. Only using cameras and not using lidar is like just doing strength exercises and not doing cardio. They are only doing part of the training that a racer needs to do to run a race.

Waymo is like the athlete that did a full workout (cardio, strength etc) and has ran a marathon and came in second place. Sure, they have still work to do in order to win the next marathon but they have results to judge them on.

That's why experts put Waymo and Cruise so high and Tesla so low. The athlete with the full training regimen and who has placed second in a race has results to show them a real leader. The athlete (Tesla) that is not doing a full training regimen and has ran any races yet, and is still training in the gym, is not a contender yet.

 

[mikes_fsd]

How can they possibly be so high in the chart, in the leader area even, when they have no FSD at all? You are ranking them as a leader based solely on their approach to FSD before they have even produced any FSD.

There is no one with FSD "available" for general use at all.
So, with that in mind, that is how I rated Tesla on the Strategy and Execution of said strategy.
I listed my bullet points pretty clearly... how did Baidu and Ford get in the so called "leaders"?

This ranking can only be about the stated approach of each company/competitor and what have they done to-date to achieve their stated goals.

Everyone else, just wants to ride the gentle stream of MobileEye... while in the process create a bunch of noise to get the feds to put in as many road blocks as possible for everyone who wants to push the envelope. (your favorite crowd "require LiDAR, it is safer cause it is shiny and more expensive... oh and sounds so cool ... Li.Li.LiDAR")

 

[diplomat33]

There is no one with FSD "available" for general use at all.
So, with that in mind, that is how I rated Tesla on the Strategy and Execution of said strategy.
I listed my bullet points pretty clearly... how did Baidu and Ford get in the so called "leaders"?

This ranking can only be about the stated approach of each company/competitor and what have they done to-date to achieve their stated goals.

You keep saying that nobody has FSD. But you are forgetting that some companies have FSD prototypes that can self-drive. So we have more than just strategies to go on. Ford, Baidu, Waymo, Cruise etc all have FSD prototypes. We can judge them based on how good the prototype is at self-driving. And they have all shown their prototypes to the public and have shared data on their autonomous driving. Some companies, like Waymo, are even starting to take passengers around in their FSD prototypes. Tesla does not have a FSD prototype for us to test or judge.

 

[mikes_fsd]

But you are forgetting that some companies have FSD prototypes that can self-drive.

So does Tesla.

All they have demonstrated re FSD (along with Tesla) is that they can make nice videos.

Waymo's Arizona experiment is not FSD (we've covered this up-thread), it is a Disney ride with Waymo branding, TBH Disney does it better!

 

[diplomat33]

So does Tesla.

No. Tesla does not have a "feature complete" FSD prototype yet, at least not one that we've seen in the wild.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Tesla does not have a "feature complete" FSD prototype yet, at least not one that we've seen in the wild.

Outside of video's I have not see anyone's feature complete FSD, neither have YOU!

 

[malcolm]

You keep saying that nobody has FSD. But you are forgetting that some companies have FSD prototypes that can self-drive. So we have more than just strategies to go on. Ford, Baidu, Waymo, Cruise etc all have FSD prototypes. We can judge them based on how good the prototype is at self-driving. And they have all shown their prototypes to the public and have shared data on their autonomous driving. Some companies, like Waymo, are even starting to take passengers around in their FSD prototypes. Tesla does not have a FSD prototype for us to test or judge.

No one has Full Self Driving.

What you're looking at is Curated Self Driving, Partial Self Driving, Ringfenced Self Driving, Restricted Self Driving....

Same old party tricks and sleight of hand.

Far from Full.

 

[diplomat33]

No one has Full Self Driving.

What you're looking at is Curated Self Driving, Partial Self Driving, Ringfenced Self Driving, Restricted Self Driving....

Same old party tricks and sleight of hand.

Far from Full.

I mean "autonomous driving". They all have autonomous driving, maybe geofenced, but it still counts as real autonomous driving. Within the geofence, the car is driving fully autonomously.

 

[mikes_fsd]

I mean "autonomous driving". They all have autonomous driving, maybe geofenced, but it still counts as real autonomous driving. Within the geofence, the car is driving fully autonomously.

I wish you would just stop making $#!t up as you go. It is exhausting!

 

[diplomat33]

Believe it or not, I am open minded. After all, I own a Model 3 with FSD. I would love nothing more than to be able to come here and say that Tesla has achieved full autonomous driving. And if Tesla releases "City NOA" and it's good, I will give Tesla credit for it. But I am not going to say that Tesla will release L5 autonomy in 2 years based on the current state of AP.

 

[mikes_fsd]

I am not going to say

Then simply don't say anything. Don't fill that void with mumbo jumbo how "LiDAR will save us all"!

Another way: Can you say that in 2 years Waymo will have L5 autonomy for everyone?

Even Waymo is not saying that!

 

[diplomat33]

Then simply don't say anything. Don't fill that void with mumbo jumbo how "LiDAR will save us all"!

Another way: Can you say that in 2 years Waymo will have L5 autonomy for everyone?

Even Waymo is not saying that!

It's not mumbo jumbo. And I never said that "lidar will save us all". I am only saying that other companies are using lidar on their autonomous cars and that I think lidar is useful for autonomous driving. And no, I am not saying that Waymo will have L5 autonomous driving in 2 years.