What happens if everyone drove EV?

[daniel]

My point is that even if you magically add a hundred million EVs, the grid stands a decent chance of surviving, and simple actions between the owners and electric companies could assure it would.

It’s not a great situation, but it isn’t the guaranteed disaster you painted it as before going on to point out the more likely reality.

But in the real world, if a hundred million people who've never thought of EVs and the issues around them suddenly, overnight, had an EV, they would not know to charge at off-peak times. They'd plug in any old time. My home uses 15 to 20 kWh per day. Very little of that is for the car because I don't drive a lot of miles. But if the average is 15,000 miles a year, that's 41 miles a day. Call it 40 for easier math. At 4 miles per kWh that's 10 kWh per day, or a 50% increase in electric usage. But my house is big. Let's say maybe a 25% increase per EV household. Charging off-peak, no problem. Real life people are not going to do that. The people who buy EVs today are conscious of the environment. Magically giving everybody an EV puts them in the hands of people who will plug them in at any old time.

But this is a scenario that's not going to happen.

The reality is that the EV fleet and the grid are going to grow together, as is installed solar capacity. So it's not an issue.

 

[ThomasD]

I see more hybrid vehicles. Firetrucks, Ambulances, Power Company trucks Vehicles that may require long run times and or consume lots of energy while in use That may have to be used in remote areas or areas that have no power

 

[ElectricIAC]

Of course, the real issue is, Why can't the richest nation on Earth provide shelter, food, and health care to all its people?

Generational welfare is a thing. Hand up not handouts.

Back on topic though. We will have to see a huge increase in fossil fuel prices for automotive purposes before EVs really take off and are considered *mainstream*

 

[afadeev]

Time is what you can't get back though. I would rather spend $2 extra than wait in line for 20 minutes.

Nice try.
Good luck selling that argument to EV owners who wait 5x during each SuperCharger stop vs. gas fill-up.

The only significant change in energy production/demand is that we'll be getting it through electric companies instead of gasoline ones.

... and that all that electric energy still does not come out of rainbows and unicorn farts.
77.6% sourced from fossil fuel sources, 9.6% nuclear, and 12.7% renewables.
What are the major sources and users of energy in the United States?

So yes, an average US EV is at least 12.7% cleaner than an average ICE car.
It is way cheaper to drive per mile, is more fun in case of a Tesla, but saving the climate, we are not.

Well, maybe marginally.
The rest is moving the exhaust pipe from your car, to the power plant.

 

[DR61]

... and that all that electric energy still does not come out of rainbows and unicorn farts.
77.6% sourced from fossil fuel sources, 9.6% nuclear, and 12.7% renewables.
What are the major sources and users of energy in the United States?

So yes, an average US EV is at least 12.7% cleaner than an average ICE car.
It is way cheaper to drive per mile, is more fun in case of a Tesla, but saving the climate, we are not.

However the EV's get something like 100-130 MPGe compared to the ICEV's which get an average 24 MPG. So EV's are 4-5 times more efficient in converting fossil fuel to miles traveled. So regarding 'saving the climate', yes we are helping considerably more than 12.7%. Plus the more renewable electric energy increases in the future, the lower our EV emissions go.

 

[ElectricIAC]

However the EV's get something like 100-130 MPGe compared to the ICEV's which get an average 24 MPG. So EV's are 4-5 times more efficient in converting fossil fuel to miles traveled. So regarding 'saving the climate', yes we are helping considerably more than 12.7%. Plus the more renewable electric energy increases in the future, the lower our EV emissions go.

Not in winter they don’t.

 

[kaffine]

Nice try.
Good luck selling that argument to EV owners who wait 5x during each SuperCharger stop vs. gas fill-up.

I have owned My Tesla for almost 2 years and have only supercharged 13 times and 4 of those times were just testing. So 9 actual charge stops I needed. Compared to having to stop 2 times a week for fuel with my previous car due to my commute. I think I have saved more time not stopping for fuel than I have spent supercharging.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I have owned My Tesla for almost 2 years and have only supercharged 13 times and 4 of those times were just testing. So 9 actual charge stops I needed. Compared to having to stop 2 times a week for fuel with my previous car due to my commute. I think I have saved more time not stopping for fuel than I have spent supercharging.

It really depends how often you road trip distances that require a charging stop or several. As usual YMMV.

 

[daniel]

... Hand up not handouts. ...

It's not an either/or situation. We need to provide equal opportunity. That means providing a quality education for everyone, something we fail at miserably today. We need to provide a hand up for people who need help getting into a job that provides a living wage and humane working conditions. And we need to prove a handout for people who are unable to work because of disability, mental illness, age, or any other factors that shut them out of the mainstream economy.

"Hand up not handouts" is glib, cruel, and just plain wrong.

... all that electric energy still does not come out of rainbows and unicorn farts...

There is a really significant difference between a BEV and an ICE: A gasoline car cannot run on anything other than fossil fuel. An EV can run on electricity that was generated from fossil fuel, or it can run on electricity from solar or wind. Your ICE car will get no cleaner throughout its life, and it will continue to emit just as much carbon per mile throughout its life. Actually, as it ages it will probably get dirtier and less efficient, so it will get steadily worse. An EV is already more efficient because the dirtiest coal-fired power plant is more efficient than the most efficient ICE car, and the grid is getting cleaner every year, so your EV will be cleaner every year than it was the year before. And you have the option, depending on where you live, of installing solar and making your EV zero-carbon.

With an EV you have a choice. With an ICE you do not.

EVs will not save us from global climate change. But they are a necessary part of any overall solution. We need to switch to electric transportation. And we need to do a lot more besides.

 

[GLM3]

Capitalism would kick in and create a whole new set of possibilities. Not a futurist, but can imagine some pretty cool scenarios.

• Most likely the introduction of alternative power generation capabilities such as small localized generation capabilities at the household, neighborhood, town, and small city level. Fuel cell, low temp nuclear, or some other technology that would remove the efficiencies with the movement of electricity over long distances. Imagine a supercharging station that generates its own power with storage technologies in place to manage peak demand.
• Heavy investment in new battery technology, energy storage, and quick charging solutions with charging stations competing on price and time to charge. Continual investment in research and development of battery technologies would reduce dependence on materials with limited availability.
• Aftermarket products such as batteries and alternative motors which may be more efficient or more powerful than OEM equipment.
• With the improvements in energy generation, energy delivery, and storage, we would see an accelerated change in good transports which contributes significantly to CO2 emissions. Trucks, ocean-going vessels and trains would all benefit from new technology developments.

There would be negatives too.

• There will be new pollution and emission-related issues we don't understand related to the mining and manufacture of the batteries, electronics, ..., associated with EVs and new power generation and storage technologies.
• As fuel demand drops the companies that own all the gas stations, refineries, pipelines, ..., will leave us with an environmental mess to clean up after they walk away from the mess they have made.
• Fossil fuel industry workers will lose their jobs and the regions that have a large population of those workers will struggle with unemployment (think Detroit!). Just like the current coal industry, there will be a constant battle to prop-up the dying industry pissing away huge sums of money by politicians attempting to get elected in those areas.

 

[DR61]

Not in winter they don’t.

Data? In winter ICEV's have significantly higher fossil fuel consumption, especially on short trips and urban driving. EV's also have much higher energy use, but unless I see data showing otherwise, I think EV's still have lower total energy use than ICEV's.

 

[ThomasD]

Why aren't we seeing massive solar arrays being built The one in the Desert is very large What would it take to do do this in every state What would it take to convert every home and business in the US to electric

 

[daniel]

... the introduction of alternative power generation capabilities such as small localized generation capabilities at the household, neighborhood, town, and small city level. Fuel cell, low temp nuclear, or some other technology that would remove the efficiencies with the movement of electricity over long distances. ...

We have this now with solar.

Note: Fuel cells do not generate power. They simply turn a stored chemical such as H2 or methane into electricity. Low-temperature nuclear is a fantasy. Solar is real, it is here, and it is economical.

Why aren't we seeing massive solar arrays being built The one in the Desert is very large What would it take to do do this in every state What would it take to convert every home and business in the US to electric

It is simply more efficient to put solar on rooftops where the power will be used, than to put it out in the desert somewhere and build transmission lines to cities. But the government should do more. Right now there are big tax subsidies which are giving home solar a boost, but those only help home-owners who have access to enough money to buy the system. A lot of middle-class people still can't afford it, and renters are left entirely out in the cold.

Let's have a law that all new construction must have solar and that public utilities must buy people's excess solar. Public utilities should (gradually, with the growth of home solar) get out of the business of generating electricity, and into the business of storing it for over-night and cloudy days.

It is not economical for an individual home to be completely off-grid because of the need for load-balancing. There is a very very short delay between the change in demand and the panels' ability to respond. The grid can serve as the load balancer: during the second or fraction of a second that it takes the panels to respond, the house draws a few watts from the grid or feeds a few watts into it. We already have the transmission lines. The grid can evolve from a power-distribution network to a load-balancing and power storage network. This won't happen in my lifetime, but it needs to happen if human civilization is not going to suffocate in its own filth or collapse under the pressure of climate change.

 

[Saghost]

Why aren't we seeing massive solar arrays being built The one in the Desert is very large What would it take to do do this in every state What would it take to convert every home and business in the US to electric

A 100 mile square of solar panels in New Mexico or Arizona would cover our whole usage, in theory.

But as daniel says, it's much cheaper and less impactful on the environment to put solar panels on the roofs of businesses and homes or in smaller fields near where we use them. That also reduces the impact of the rare cloudy day out there.

If you haven't been seeing big new solar and wind installations, you haven't been looking hard enough. I was quite surprised by how much I saw on my summer road trip, both wind and solar in Texas, Kansas, Nevada, and California.

It's happening, and the price points now are such that I'm pretty sure it'll continue to happen; solar and wind are cheaper for the companies to build than coal or gas - in some cases, cheaper to build new solar or wind than to maintain and fuel existing coal and gas.

 

[drtimhill]

Why aren't we seeing massive solar arrays being built The one in the Desert is very large What would it take to do do this in every state What would it take to convert every home and business in the US to electric

Partly cost .. until recently solar was expensive. Partly because with no way to store electricity (yet), solar cant be used at night.

 

[eevee-fan]

Partly cost .. until recently solar was expensive. Partly because with no way to store electricity (yet), solar cant be used at night.

With a 60 kWh BEV at home and the average house using 29 kWh a day (my household uses less than 10), it's very doable. Charge up the car during the day with solar power, run the house off the BEV at night.

 

[eevee-fan]

There is a really significant difference between a BEV and an ICE: A gasoline car cannot run on anything other than fossil fuel. An EV can run on electricity that was generated from fossil fuel, or it can run on electricity from solar or wind. Your ICE car will get no cleaner throughout its life, and it will continue to emit just as much carbon per mile throughout its life. Actually, as it ages it will probably get dirtier and less efficient, so it will get steadily worse. An EV is already more efficient because the dirtiest coal-fired power plant is more efficient than the most efficient ICE car, and the grid is getting cleaner every year, so your EV will be cleaner every year than it was the year before. And you have the option, depending on where you live, of installing solar and making your EV zero-carbon.

With an EV you have a choice. With an ICE you do not.

EVs will not save us from global climate change. But they are a necessary part of any overall solution. We need to switch to electric transportation. And we need to do a lot more besides.

I guess not everyone watched Transformers when they were younger.

 

[kaffine]

There is a really significant difference between a BEV and an ICE: A gasoline car cannot run on anything other than fossil fuel.

They have ICE that can run on ethanol from corn or sugar. There is also bio-diesel from used cooking oil. They also have ways of turning other waste streams like that from a turkey processor into fuel. From what I can tell they had issues with it costing too much to turn the turkey remains into diesel. So there are ways to get ICE to run from non fossil fuels. Issue is cost and scale.

There are some applications that cost isn't an issue for and research is being done to make it viable.

 

[drtimhill]

With a 60 kWh BEV at home and the average house using 29 kWh a day (my household uses less than 10), it's very doable. Charge up the car during the day with solar power, run the house off the BEV at night.

I certainly think there is a place for smart charging of BEVs (see my earlier post where I speculated on this), and using them en masse as a vast electricity reserve (and it really will be vast as the fleet increases in size). However, do you really want to deep-cycle your car battery every night? At present, that's the single most expensive component of the car, and wearing that out will add significantly to the overall cost of the system.

 

[eevee-fan]

I certainly think there is a place for smart charging of BEVs (see my earlier post where I speculated on this), and using them en masse as a vast electricity reserve (and it really will be vast as the fleet increases in size). However, do you really want to deep-cycle your car battery every night? At present, that's the single most expensive component of the car, and wearing that out will add significantly to the overall cost of the system.

Let's say in my case, that's 5 kWh usage between getting home from work to going to work next morning. This assumes the worst case of zero grid power after I get home from work. Out of 60 kWh battery, that'd be only 17%. Maybe you need to define what would be considered deep cycling first.

Go to: California ISO - Supply
Scroll down to the chart on Storage. This is how much the batteries are cycled currently in California.

If everyone drove EVs, that just means much more solar fields can come online so people can charge their EVs during daylight hours then driving their EV home to provide bulk of the power to the house during the huge evening peak and also the next morning's smaller peak. Over night, can probably do a little recharging from wind.