What happens if everyone drove EV?

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Realistically, road taxes need to be collected. The way some states are going about it is pretty dumb though. It seems to be higher than the average gas tax, even.

Problem is no one wants to submit a log to the government for how much you drive every year because that's a privacy thing... so that leaves two options:

• Fixed tax at some value they consider to make up for lost gas tax
• Enforce that electricity used to charge EVs is taxed (i.e. an added 'road tax' to that).

Since #2 is never going to happen cause it's too restrictive, you're left with a flat tax. I'm not sure any other way to handle that, unless you propose eliminating road taxation collection as-is and rolling it into some other tax...

I submit an odometer reading to the state every year with my registration.
I also have to give the odometer reading when the vehicle is titled.
Odometers have legal requirements.
Every large vehicle since 1981 in the USA has had a unique VIN.
f(VIN, jurisidiction, date1, odometer1, date2, odometer2) = amount_to_pay
It isn't complicated. It doesn't have to be perfect.
It just needs to be a proper decision: do you want everybody to pay a fixed fee, or do you really want people to pay based roughly on miles driven?

Lots of people already track their miles driven in detail: truck drivers, people claiming expenses and nerds with fuel spreadsheets. But for general purposes, we don't need to mandate anything that complex.

 

[hcdavis3]

I submit an odometer reading to the state every year with my registration.
I also have to give the odometer reading when the vehicle is titled.
Odometers have legal requirements.
Every large vehicle since 1981 in the USA has had a unique VIN.
f(VIN, jurisidiction, date1, odometer1, date2, odometer2) = amount_to_pay
It isn't complicated. It doesn't have to be perfect.
It just needs to be a proper decision: do you want everybody to pay a fixed fee, or do you really want people to pay based roughly on miles driven?

Lots of people already track their miles driven in detail: truck drivers, people claiming expenses and nerds with fuel spreadsheets. But for general purposes, we don't need to mandate anything that complex.

A bit off topic ItsNot. I went to get my MA inspection sticker yesterday. In one year the rules have changed radically. They now have to take pictures of both plates (I haven’t put my front plate on yet, do they zip tied it on to the front bumper) and take a picture of the odometer. I guess a lot of people were cheating. As usual they just checked all the boxes and I left with no pain.

 

[EldestOyster]

would we start running out of electricity

The production of gasoline consumes about as much electricity as we use to power our cars directly. So as we all transition to sustainable energy, we are freeing up the electricity we need for charging.

 

[bruce4000]

The grid is designed to handle the highest peak load which is usually around 6pm. As long as most ev’s charge at night (time of use rates will assure this), then there is plenty of capacity available at night. Each region will use what’s best ie solar, wind, hydro plus transmission and storage.

 

[DaveRZ]

The way I see it, EVERYONE living in the modern world benefits from our infrastructure whether you own a car or not. The dwelling you live in was built with materials that traveled on the road. Your Amazon package and Grub Hub delivery came via the road. The food you buy came to the store via the road. The idea that people who don't drive shouldn't have to contribute to maintaining the road is ridiculous. Therefore all infrastructure-related taxes should be taken from general funds since we ALL need them to provide for the lives we live. They idea of taking it from gas-taxes, or (gasp!) charging truckers MORE because their trucks tear up the road more is completely missing the point. They're moving the stuff we all need!!! Why are we punishing them for it?

I drive a long distance to get to work, and my work (as does yours) contributes to our society and its services. That's as socialist as I'm willing to get

To answer the OP's original question, I think as EV adoption goes up, electric rates will certainly increase. Off peak times will become peak times since that's when everyone is charging. BUT... gas demand will go down, which in turn will lower the cost of gas. This will keep people in gas cars for quite some time.

Ultimately we'll end up over-taxing gas to get people off of it (think cigarette taxes), but that's pretty far down the road (20+ years, IMO).

The scary thing for me is the thought of all those idiot drivers out there having super fast cars. We've all seen what a 17 year old with a Civic can do, can you imagine a 17 year old with a used M3P?

 

[ElectricIAC]

I'm just wondering if everyone that could afford a $35k car, and 90% of them bought only a Tesla Model 3 or another EV, would we start running out of electricity thus have higher electricity rate? Like what is happening to gas now, like it used to be $1 in the 1990s but now is $3-4 gallon?

Would it be good or bad? Is it good to keep EV out of reach of lower income people so there is enough electricity to go around at a cheaper price? Because a poor person can go buy a $1000 car, but they likely can't find cheaper gas for $1 gallon. So at around $60 tank, 16 fill ups will be the same amount as that car, and they will pay more for gas than the car itself. At least for CA standards since gas is more expensive here, may not apply to other parts of the USA. But will there be a day when a used Tesla Model 3 could be within reach for $3000-10000?

At some point we are going to run out of gas. But how much longer, it seems auto makers are still making gas cars so it can't be anytime soon. But when will that time come when every major automaker ditches gas based cars? Because imagine gas costing $100+ / gallon and only in a couple fill ups the gas costs more than your actual car. And then at that point I think people will switch to EV even if it costs more, b/c one gas fill up costs as much or more than the car itself.

But once we run outta gas and now its $2000-3000 for a full tank of gas. Will everyone switch to EV? And then what resource is needed to produce all our electricity?

Is electric cheaper now b/c its outta reach from a good amount of people? I'm trying to compare it to the arcade ticket ecosystem because I got $850 worth of prizes for only $180, and they nerfed my game very quick. Only after two prizes, or $670 loss assuming they paid full retail. I guess I'm like the richest person at the arcade because I was the quickest person to redeem their big prizes while most normal people don't bother. I kind of thought me being a skilled arcade player redeeming big prizes is like the rich people who can afford to drive EV and the unskilled players winning finger traps are the poor people in the arcade ecosystem, who are still driving beater cars that drive off gas.

But if somehow all those fingertrap people got good at a game, or found a game with a major glitch that give out too many tickets, but was honored and they got to keep them, that would really disrupt the arcade ecosystem. Maybe to the point the prize room got cleaned out and now there is a prize shortage b/c everyone "got rich". Which is equivelant to maybe EV technology becoming so cheap very fast, now tons of poor people are driving EVs, putting more commuters relying on electric energy, is there enough supply if such a thing happened?

But yeah, they didn't tolerate my profits for very long, they cut the jackpot over half so its gonna be harder to profit. I'm wondering if its beneficial for current EV owners to keep lower income people from affording one so there is more cheap electricity to go around.

If EV’s (Tesla specifically) blow up in a big way I sincerely hope they continue expanding the Supercharger and Service Center network to keep up with demand.

 

[Saghost]

To answer the OP's original question, I think as EV adoption goes up, electric rates will certainly increase. Off peak times will become peak times since that's when everyone is charging. BUT... gas demand will go down, which in turn will lower the cost of gas. This will keep people in gas cars for quite some time.

The cost per kWh for the electric company should actually go down, since they're getting a better utilization out of both the generation sites and the transmission lines - especially if they are able to deploy smart charging solutions that allow the utility to influence when the cars charge during the day/night.

Between that and the increase in solar/wind power that costs much less to produce once the initial investment is made, I'm not seeing why the electric rates would be driven up by EV adoption.

You probably have a point about gas prices dropping, which may or may not affect EV adoption (I don't know many people who bought EVs to save money...)

 

[ElectricIAC]

The cost per kWh for the electric company should actually go down, since they're getting a better utilization out of both the generation sites and the transmission lines - especially if they are able to deploy smart charging solutions that allow the utility to influence when the cars charge during the day/night.

Between that and the increase in solar/wind power that costs much less to produce once the initial investment is made, I'm not seeing why the electric rates would be driven up by EV adoption.

You probably have a point about gas prices dropping, which may or may not affect EV adoption (I don't know many people who bought EVs to save money...)

Gas prices won’t drop forever. So there’s that.

 

[drtimhill]

I'm just wondering if everyone that could afford a $35k car, and 90% of them bought only a Tesla Model 3 or another EV, would we start running out of electricity thus have higher electricity rate? Like what is happening to gas now, like it used to be $1 in the 1990s but now is $3-4 gallon?

Yes, there would be a surge in electricity prices, which could impact lower income people who dont drive much (or at all) but suddenly find prices going up because of everyone else charging cars. But this will be medium term until capacity catches up with demand.

There would also be a huge reduction in local pollution. Yes, some would simply transfer to power stations (not arguing about what power sources we use), but these are easier to mitigate, since they are all concentrated in one place, not spread over millions of cars.

There would also be a reduction in road noise, making city streets quieter (quite a benefit, imho).

The tax structure for funding roads would have to change, since its mostly based on gas taxes atm. This is already starting to happen, with various (some good, some bad) attempts to recoup lost taxes from EV owners.

It's also possible we would see a pivot in car-buying habits. It's entirely possible that within 5 years a decent EV could basically last 500,000 miles or more. So people will keep cars longer, which changes the dynamics of the auto industry.

 

[Zirak]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but we'd likely lose 1-person HOV access if everyone drove an EV :S

 

[David_Cary]

It is unlikely to be a "surge"in electricity prices. There are a lot of comments on here from people who have very little idea how the electricity market works.

The first reality is that maintaining infrastructure is a very large amount of the cost of electricity. The average household bill is somewhere just north of $100 a month and $50 of that is infrastructure. The bill doesn't itemize it that way but the fact is that a large percentage of the costs are infrastructure.

Peak use does not go up. So infrastructure cost does not go up. Peak use isn't all of a sudden going to be at night. It can be whenever the utility wants it to be - by changing the rate structure. That is huge flexibility. It doesn't take too much imagination to see utility controlled charging times. The majority of people can charge whenever it makes sense to do so.

NG produces electricity at significantly less 4 cents a kwh. Utility scale solar is building now at 2 cents a kwh. The higher rate you pay is for infrastructure and profit. Use more electricity and it actually gets cheaper as the fuel cost is so low. Infrastructure is fixed and profit is typically percentage based. It may surprise the folks in CA, but some markets actually factor this in. The first 1000 kwh a month is more expensive than use above 1000 kwh. It is one of the reasons that utilities hate residential solar.

We easily have the electricity generating capacity in the US for everyone to drive Teslas tomorrow. Now - we would have some trouble the day before thanksgiving and the Sunday after. But for day to day, it would not be a problem. And it will be lower cost than today.

 

[StellarRat]

Hopefully the Sun

I think wind power is better, but solar is good too. The biggest obstacle I see is our "dumb grid" and lack of energy storage facilities. If those two things could be fixed I'd be a lot more optimistic about renewable power.

 

[Rottenapplr]

The roads would be a lot quieter!!!! I love for an all EV Highway.

 

[kaffine]

The way I see it, EVERYONE living in the modern world benefits from our infrastructure whether you own a car or not. The dwelling you live in was built with materials that traveled on the road. Your Amazon package and Grub Hub delivery came via the road. The food you buy came to the store via the road. The idea that people who don't drive shouldn't have to contribute to maintaining the road is ridiculous. Therefore all infrastructure-related taxes should be taken from general funds since we ALL need them to provide for the lives we live. They idea of taking it from gas-taxes, or (gasp!) charging truckers MORE because their trucks tear up the road more is completely missing the point. They're moving the stuff we all need!!! Why are we punishing them for it?

I drive a long distance to get to work, and my work (as does yours) contributes to our society and its services. That's as socialist as I'm willing to get

To answer the OP's original question, I think as EV adoption goes up, electric rates will certainly increase. Off peak times will become peak times since that's when everyone is charging. BUT... gas demand will go down, which in turn will lower the cost of gas. This will keep people in gas cars for quite some time.

Ultimately we'll end up over-taxing gas to get people off of it (think cigarette taxes), but that's pretty far down the road (20+ years, IMO).

The scary thing for me is the thought of all those idiot drivers out there having super fast cars. We've all seen what a 17 year old with a Civic can do, can you imagine a 17 year old with a used M3P?

The truck driver isn't paying for the tax though. It gets passed on in the bill for shipping the goods. The price to ship goods is added to the cost of the items sold in the store. Part of the money the Grub Hub driver is making is to pay for his fuel and the taxes on that fuel which is included in the cost of the service. So the consumer is the one paying for the taxes. So you are paying for the roads even if you never buy gas directly by buying anything that was shipped by truck. (why is it things moved by trucks is called a shipment but if moved by a ship it is called cargo?)

Fuel tax is a great way to pay for roads if the tax kept pace with cost of maintenance and expansion of roads and ever increasing fuel efficiency. It charges those using the roads for the cost of maintaining them. If the products you buy went over the road you are paying for the road tax to get the product to market. The issue is the tax hasn't kept up with costs of maintenance and expansion. The only way to get out of paying road taxes is to not buy anything that every was shipped over the road. I guess if you are a recluse and grow all your own food and make your own tools and built your house from material on your land you could get away from paying road taxes, of course at that point you really aren't using the roads at all.

 

[ThomasD]

You need a way to keep the battery banks charged when Solar and wind power isn't enough. Wind turbines use natural gas or generators when wind speed is too low. They are shut down when wind speed meets or exceeds 55 mph Could you power the nyc metro area through a frigid cloudy week in January using battery power to backup the grid.

 

[ElectricIAC]

The problem (let’s ignore non-optimal weather) with major penetration of solar power is in just how much room it takes. And while you could (at a very high cost currently) cover your average single family home in solar panels/roofing and install battery storage that still kinda leaves a lot to be desired in apartment buildings, and high rises for that matter.

 

[drtimhill]

You need a way to keep the battery banks charged when Solar and wind power isn't enough. Wind turbines use natural gas or generators when wind speed is too low. They are shut down when wind speed meets or exceeds 55 mph Could you power the nyc metro area through a frigid cloudy week in January using battery power to backup the grid.

But this is somewhat offset by the very nature of EVs .. which are essentially batteries being charged. At the moment, we have a grid that has had to be designed for power generation that tracks consumption, since there is no way to effectively store electricity.

Now add millions of EVs into the equation. Forget feeble "off-peak" charging models, they are dinosaurs. Instead, we have a smart grid where cars are connected to the grid and are then instructed when to start/stop charging based on grid load. If effect, that vast set of batteries levels out power demand generation. When the wind blows, or the sun shines on solar power farms, get those cars charged, when there is a heavy demand (when people cook dinner for example), drop 100,000 cars off charging to free up that power for the instant demand. This is a huge asset to power generation, since all generating facilities can be run at optimal efficiency, lowering costs.

Science fiction? We already have the pieces in place. Cars with internet connections, GPS location awareness, and software controlled charging. All you need is the co-ordination between the generation grid and the car fleet to make it happen.

Of course, at some point you go one step further, and you design the cars to work in reverse as well .. donate charge back to the grid. Now, you have a massive energy reserve as well, and then you have a true storage system, with vast reserves based on all those EVs plugged in all over the country.

The math is interesting. Assume 25 million EVs (a modest percentage of the US car fleet), with 80 kWh batteries. Assume only 10% connected to the grid at any one time (another modest percentage). That's 200,000 MWhr battery capacity on the grid. The biggest battery install in the world right now is the one Tesla installed in Australia, with a capacity of 129 MWhr. So the combined EV capacity, even with my modest numbers, exceeds that by a massive margin. That is a game changer for the way the entire power grid is managed.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I’m game, as long as I profit off it.

 

[Lloyd]

If everyone drove an EV, who would pay to maintain our roads and highways? The govt would have to implement some kind of usage tax for every mile you drive.

In California, the increased EV fee paid at registration annually is more than most drivers pay in road taxes collected through fuel sales. EV's pay their fair share and more!!

 

[ThomasD]

Would that put a large strain on the batteries. Would older cars handle the constant charge discharge cycles Car is at 80% discharges to 60% charges to 70% Discharges to 50% Would that large battery backup work to power a remote village in Alaska in Winter.