Even changing the wheels changes ETA from December to September.
Of course, no one knows. I suspect as long as gas prices are high, people will flock to ordering Teslas. People used to sell their big cars and buy econobox type cars when gas got super expensive in the US, but now they have seen enough Teslas on the road for it to not be a "scary" thing to order an EV (and tesla is the market leader).
The fact that simply changing the wheels moves delivery 3 months (sooner), tells you that tesla simply doesnt want to (or need to) sell the "minimum spec" vehicle, so I would plan on buying one with 19 inch wheels as they likely will prioritize those over "base spec", because " they can".
I bet a base spec order placed even now might not get delivered by Dec.