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Since Tesla is can set their MSRP where they wish, it means that once the current large backlog of orders is eaten up, and once purchases depend also on the price, those $7,500 will be that much less profit for Tesla. Which means, it will take that much longer until they can invest in the Gen III mass production manufacturing facilities.
That is a large assumption that the current backlog of orders will be eaten up. The rate of reservations is near current production levels (at time of q3 announcement)and Will skyrocket in the short term. I think it will be a long time untill the backlog is eaten up. I think they could hit the 20,000 car a year target Without the tax credit. The one big thing people can still worry about is most likely reservation rate but it too will soon pass the amount needed for the 20k a year mark.