Recent content by Carl Raymond

Yes. I’d add that FSD for people is the kick starter to FSD for goods. Amazon must already be looking at their fleet of electric vans and thinking: where’s the FSD computer? Throw in humanoids aboard or at the end points and we’re going to see stuff moving A to B, without fuel, without labour...

There was a lot in those screen images and I suspect they were material in today’s melt up. People in general are not great at picturing things till they see them. I’ve been telling people for a while, Tesla don’t need Uber, the ride hail app is the easy bit. - set your own temperature, choose...

Negligible compared to half an hour of Netflix. It’s only the prompt and the response text that travel. Model updates would also consume a bit, from time to time.

Distributed inference compute farm. Anybody got a ballpark figure on the value of that? If say 50% opted in for 10hrs a day x 7 million cars. Is it a stock price mover? Only downside is the energy use and the sounds of cooling and relays closing coming from the garage. We have excess home solar...

Something to watch while waiting for earnings. Discusses how Tesla 4680 doesn’t need to produce cheaper cells than China to still be a valid strategy. It derisks supply from China monopoly. Listening closely at the end you can almost hear Musk saying this. Seems to solve the mystery of why...

Somewhere in the bottom pic is an exhaust stack, venting the tunnel below. Get caught downwind from it and you get a sense your life expectancy is falling with each breath. Tunnels and electrification are a matched pair. ICE defenders forget this.

80:20 rule will deliver faster improvement than most people intuitively expect. At any one time, 80% of problems arise from 20% of situation types. Tesla are getting perfect feedback, via interventions. For each new release (the last two just 10 days apart), they’ll be attacking the specific...

Robo minibus will need to exist to be of benefit in zones where congestion is the limiting factor. But don’t forget Musk responded with 👀 to Sawyer Merritt’s post about same platform for compact n robotaxi. If the one line makes both, switching at will, it protects Tesla from regulatory...

Musk posted 👀 on Sawyer’s post about same platform. To reveal taxi is to reveal the compact car. Focus on taxi is all about Mr Osborne.

Decide how many minutes you have. Start playing that many minutes from the end. Sasha is on fire here. Topic: FSD (Saw this video posted to this thread earlier, sorry, couldn’t locate it to link locally)

5 years is incredibly pessimistic on a two week update cadence that addresses three items per update. An item might be adding reverse, escape from any cul-de-sac, or it might be something cosmetic on the display. Let’s review in a month to assess their def of “significant”. The value jump...

Saw this yesterday from Cern Basher and I think it’s a big deal that almost nobody’s talking about. FSD 12.3 is exciting, but more exciting is the rate of improvement. This rate of dev on the end-to-end model was completely unknown to outsiders until last weekend. Now we’re being told about...

A hint to expect fast cadence of releases is in Ashok’s post. The “next few releases” will be complete “soon”, is how I read it. - Observations The time gap from 12.2 to 12.3 was typical. 12.3 was declared by Musk to be a big change (as if v13). 12.3 has some (hopefully) easy fix...

A beautifully written post from James Douma. tldr HW3 is up to the task with plenty of room for eventual optimisation. HW4 exists because silicon improvements are a gift not to be refused.

Interesting. The value, Chris argues, comes from up to date data collected by Tesla robots (cars n soon bots), required to model real world interactions for the likes of Sora to remain current. He believes the recent injection of funding to Figure AI is because the investors want data access...