Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

And autopark and regular summon would be appreciated for us Tesla Vision owners. Already have my car for 18 months without these "coming soon" features. Yes, I am bitter about it.

I agree, @jeewee3000. I have been a fanboi since 2013 and owner since 2016. My biggest criticism is the vague timeframes we are often given. It is irritating and perhaps even dishonest. They have mishandled the expectations set for Tesla Vision without doubt.

 

[SO16]

Very encouraging!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769119083646030115

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769120817256825085

 

[empiredown]

Just finished my first drive with FSD 12, was upgraded to it overnight. Absolute game changer. Believe the hype. Thankfully I have been guaranteed to have it passed on to our incoming new car, otherwise I would have to seriously contemplate shelling out the dough for it. Incredible to think about where we are headed...

 

[woodisgood]

Just finished my first drive with FSD 12, was upgraded to it overnight. Absolute game changer. Believe the hype. Thankfully I have been guaranteed to have it passed on to our incoming new car, otherwise I would have to seriously contemplate shelling out the dough for it. Incredible to think about where we are headed...

Yep…totally agree. This is the “light at the end of the tunnel” release.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Actually Smart Summon is comin'!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769067585063080351

A hint to expect fast cadence of releases is in Ashok’s post.

The “next few releases” will be complete “soon”, is how I read it.

-
Observations

The time gap from 12.2 to 12.3 was typical.
12.3 was declared by Musk to be a big change (as if v13).
12.3 has some (hopefully) easy fix bugs/deficiencies
- flashing red lights not handled
- entering barricaded streets
- Chinese lanterns mistaken for stop lights
- ABS not integrated, tried to ‘save’ FSD where FSD actually knew best
- halt on being unable to see road ahead at night due to steep approach, headlights aimed down, road ahead occluded by level crossroad (human would remember there is road on the other side)

Also a couple of gnarly ones. Identified before wide release. Possibly fixed already? (Have not seen since wide release).
- missed on ramp, aimed at safety barrels when disengaged
- turn right attempted with car approaching on left, vision obstructed by parked car. Mysterious, having watched AI-driver do same manoeuvre repeatedly today with perfection. Hence “fixing on the fly” suspicion, via weights maybe. Is a weight table change a version change? I’d have thought so.

-

Overall, gobsmacking that this version is as good as it is, being entirely new approach, having never had the benefit of even a single wide release debug cycle. Riveting stuff.

 

[Krugerrand]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769020158239203608

Well , now I’m confused. According to the dude, raising prices April 1 for NA is because demand for Q1 is so bad and they’re trying to goose Q1 sales. Then along comes a rise in prices in Europe but for March 22nd. Now I’ve been hearing from the dude how bad things are in Europe with sales. So am I now to understand Tesla needs to only goose Europe sales until March 21 and not until March 30?

Please Baby Jesus, just give me one more vehicle delivery YoY.

 

[samn]

- turn right attempted with car approaching on left, vision obstructed by parked car. Mysterious, having watched AI-driver do same manoeuvre repeatedly today with perfection. Hence “fixing on the fly” suspicion, via weights maybe. Is a weight table change a version change? I’d have thought so.

I don't think they can independently adjust the weights after training. Maybe they can, what do I know, but I think the neural network is a result of the training process and is likely mostly a black box. I think because of that fixing something like this would require more training which means a new release.

Then again maybe I'm wrong and they can push updates in the background during beta without bumping the release version number? Seems unlikely

 

[Gigapress]

Almost every FSD release I can remember has had mixed reviews. Is anyone not having a good experience with 12.3?

 

[dhanson865]

I think it's a necessary restriction to make fraud mitigation via the IRS portal logistically feasible.

That's the whole point of using a service like keysavvy. They do the paperwork and send it to the IRS for you. Which means if you use them they are going to be getting your SSN and VIN to put on that paperwork (even if it's all electronic).

 

[insaneoctane]

I hope everyone is appreciating the significance of what's happening before all of our eyes with v12. I don't have it, so my observations are based on everything I've been reading. But Tesla really made huge progress with v12 by boldly abandoning most of what they developed getting to v11. I don't know that v12 gets FSD across the finish line, but it appears to have been a necessary step to move beyond yet another local maximum. This shows Tesla's willingness to do what it takes to solve this extremely difficult problem. I want v12 myself now and I am hopeful that it continues to progress more rapidly than v11 did. Moving beyond the local maximum that v11 was in allows for this possibility. This demonstrates Tesla's FSD team continues to make difficult and agile decisions and it's exciting!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Almost every FSD release I can remember has had mixed reviews. Is anyone not having a good experience with 12.3?

Well... It didn't do a U-turn at the light like I wanted. And went too fast over a drainage dip at the bottom of a hill.
I had one disengage... there was a Garage Sale! I told it, "Hey, let's go to the Garage Sale", no response. Where's Grok? This is crap, total trash man.

/s

 

[Drumheller]

Well , now I’m confused. According to the dude, raising prices April 1 for NA is because demand for Q1 is so bad and they’re trying to goose Q1 sales. Then along comes a rise in prices in Europe but for March 22nd. Now I’ve been hearing from the dude how bad things are in Europe with sales. So am I now to understand Tesla needs to only goose Europe sales until March 21 and not until March 30?

Please Baby Jesus, just give me one more vehicle delivery YoY.

Since sales are falling, Tesla has to raise prices to keep total revenue even. Less sales, but at higher average prices.















/s. (I really didn't want to add this but figured I had better add it)

 

[dhanson865]

OK, 2023 OICA numbers have been published, still below the 2017 peak.

2017​

73,456,531​

2023​

67,133,570​

 

[dhanson865]

I don't have a solid source for EV numbers so take this one with a giant lump of salt. I have no clue how accurate the green portion of the bars are and on top of that I'm guessing on future market growth.

Wild shot in the dark of EV 50/50 happening in 2026 just by eyeballing the slope as I changed figures in the spreadsheet.

Valley of death isn't as obvious as JP007 suggested years ago.

 

[Stretch2727]

A good endorsement of FSD 12.3

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769161131904438779

 

[2daMoon]

Okay, I don't have an opinion about the article one way or another, but looking at the photo I had an epiphany...

S 3 C X Y *
still makes it phonetically "sexy"

Tesla is no longer just a luxury brand, says major auto outlet

One major automotive outlet says Tesla is no longer just a luxury brand, in part due to its unique pricing strategy over the past few years.

www.teslarati.com

* yes, I realize they are actually arranged 3SCXY and blatantly took poetic license in the hope of making a point here

 

[Quesder]

Current PE is based on last 12 months of earnings. Forward PE is based on next 12 months - which usually comes from analyst average/consensus of next 12 months earnings.

Sorry I missed a word in my previous post. That is, “down”. If price is the same, I.e, $163, and forward PE is up from 34 to 50, does that mean analysts are expecting Tesla earnings are going down, despite of growing revenue?

 

[Quesder]

How to get v12? I bught my MY last Dec and my free FSD trial is expiring next week. Didn’t see any software update notice. If I can test it even for just one time, it will help me HODL my positions.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769199345746735123

 

[dhanson865]